310
FXUS62 KILM 211045
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Northeast winds are expected to continue over the next few days
in a gradient between high pressure to our north and Hurricane
Erin moving away from the area. A cold front will approach the
area on Friday and into this weekend bringing cooler
temperatures. Another front will approach early next week,
bringing some of the coolest weather the area has recorded in
months.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Erin will continue to track safely offshore toward the north and
east today. Northerly flow on the western side of the storm will
push high pressure southward into the Carolinas. An attendant cold
front with the high will push southward through the afternoon and
stall over northeastern SC this evening. Dry air aloft and weak
subsidence during the day are unlikely to produce meaningful shower
activity, but a stray shower is possible during cooler theta-e
advection. The previous discussion mentioned cloud cover over
southeastern NC impacting temperatures today and that trend appears
to have continued within the latest model guidance. As such, I have
lowered temperatures from the NBM with mid and upper 80s across the
area this afternoon.

As the front stalls over southeastern NC this evening, convergence
will increase in an environment with higher moisture and better
instability. This should produce widely scattered showers across the
Pee Dee. The exact position and orientation of this front will
depend on its daytime progression, so I have generalized PoPs across
a broad area for this evening in hopes that hi-res guidance can nail-
down the details this afternoon. Dry air and cooler temperatures
over NC should bring lows tantalizingly close to the upper 60s,
lower 70s near the front in northeast SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Erin should now be well to the northeast and offshore several
hundred miles off the coast of New England. Meanwhile, high pressure
from the Great Lakes and the Northeast quickly slides down into the
the mid-Atlantic region Friday through Saturday. This high will
bring in slightly cooler, drier air with some ENE flow in the lower
levels. The tricky part here is that an offshore front to the south
with weak low pressure along it will funnel more moisture into
northeast SC. As a result, there will be a moisture gradient, with
precipitable water values hovering near 1.25-1.50" over southeast
NC, increasing to 1.50-2.00" in northeast SC. This means lower rain
chances on the NC side of the border, while some parts of the Grand
Strand may squeeze in a couple of showers and storms each afternoon.

Highs each day in the low-to-mid 80s. Lows Friday night in the upper
60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast, with lows Saturday night
around 1-3 degrees cooler.

Wave heights at the coast start to come down a bit over the weekend,
but the long periods remain. Rip current threat should still
continue through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Sunday, the aforementioned high pressure is shunted offshore just
as quickly as it arrived. In its place, the old frontal boundary
offshore with its associated low pressure starts creeping back
towards the coast, acting more like a warm front this time. Onshore
flow returns, pumping more warm, humid air back into the area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across the area Sunday
afternoon, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

By Sunday night, the stage is set for a good cold front approaching
from the west. The area is thoroughly in the warm sector by Monday,
with highs approaching 90 degrees by the afternoon, accompanied by
some possible seabreeze convection in the afternoon. This front
doesn`t carry very stout forcing with it, so widespread rain chances
don`t look likely at this time.

The front should sweep off the coast Monday night, and this is where
things get fun. The coolest, driest air we`ve seen in months pokes
in to say hello, a tease of beautiful fall and all the things that
come with it. Dewpoints crash into the low-to-mid 60s Tuesday, and
could even drop into the upper 50s in the far inland areas by
Wednesday. Highs in the mid 80s Tuesday become the lower 80s by
Wednesday, with the precipitable water getting knocked down into the
1.15-1.25" range. The sweetest treat yet is that lows will start to
fall into the mid-to-upper 60s by Tuesday morning, becoming the low-
to-mid 60s by Wednesday morning. Comparatively speaking, that`s
"open up your windows" territory. Grab the pumpkin spice!

Though wave heights decrease even more into early next week, the
long periods leftover from Erin may remain. Therefore, the increased
rip current threat at the beaches may continue into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patchy stratus is drifting southward across NC this morning and
could cause intermittent MVFR restrictions. Confidence is low
given the inconsistent nature of the cloud deck. VFR should
dominate in SC with a better chance of short-lived restrictions
in NC. Gradual improvement this morning should yield VFR by
noon for all terminals. As Erin moves off to the north and east,
high pressure will build behind a cold front throughout the
day. Dry air aloft will keep shower activity isolated, if not
completely absent. As the front stalls across northeastern SC
tonight, showers and an isolated storm may develop along the
boundary. Position of the stalled boundary is uncertain and thus
rain chances are unclear. However, the best chance of impacts
would be our southernmost coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Conditions will gradually improve on Friday
before another cold front approaches the area this weekend,
increasing rain chances. Gradual drying expected into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Seas have been significantly over-forecast this
evening based on buoy observations. Despite the peak of seas being
lower than expected, the agitated sea state is likely to persist for
quite some time due to a combination of gusty winds and back swell
as Erin departs. Gusts up to 25 knots this morning will gradually
decrease through the afternoon as the gradient relaxes.
Northeasterly winds will see another surge later today as a cold
front drifts south of the area and stalls.

Friday through Monday...Very gradual improvement to the seas as Erin
exits off to the northeast. Northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts veer a
bit more to the ENE by Friday night, decreasing slightly to around
10 kts. This pattern holds until Monday, where winds will back to
the WNW by Monday morning, becoming more SW throughout the day ahead
of a cold front. Seas at 2-4 ft linger throughout the weekend at 12-
14 seconds. Seas decrease to 1-2 ft by Monday, but still carry the
long periods.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River
during each high tide cycle through the weekend with the evening
high tide cycles being the higher high tide. Minor coastal flooding
is also expected along the SE NC and NE SC coasts through at least
Friday, mainly during the higher evening high tides.

RIP CURRENTS: A high risk of rip currents is expected through Friday
and possibly Saturday as large swells from Hurricane Erin impact the
coast.

HIGH SURF: A High Surf Advisory is in effect for dangerously rough
surf with 6+ foot breaking wave heights for much of the SE NC and NE
SC coasts through this evening, especially east to southeast-facing
beaches in NC.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107.
SC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...IGB/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...