192
FXUS62 KILM 061515
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1115 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold
front that should reach the area Monday, accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms. Colder and drier weather is expected Tuesday
through Wednesday as high pressure brings Canadian air
southward. The next frontal system will approach the Carolinas
late in the week with a chance of showers.

&&

.UPDATE...
10 AM: Wind gusts are increasing as we start mixing today,
already around 20-30 mph. Some bands of clouds are moving
through the area with scattered to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm weather continues today with high pressure to our southeast. An
approaching cold front will force a tighter surface gradient today.
Warm air advection and deep mixing is likely to produce gusts up to
25-30 mph, higher near the coast. These breezy conditions will also
bolster a sea breeze  during the afternoon. Southwest winds may
limit the inland progression of this sea breeze which gives
confidence in the potential for a few areas in the 90s along the I-
95 corridor. This would the earliest 90 degree day since 2010 for
both LBT and FLO if it occurs.

While afternoon showers are unlikely, several HREF members show some
light, quick-hitting showers across our inland forecast zones this
afternoon. Substantial dry air above the boundary layer and what`s
left of a subsidence inversion suggest that the depth of these
showers would be insufficient for measurable precip. However, deep
surface mixing and low level moisture within SW flow could produce a
few cumulus clouds of around 2k feet in depth. Despite a 4-5k foot
boundary layer, a brief fast-moving sprinkle may result. Have
included a 5% PoP west of line from Kingstree to Lumberton.

A lifting shortwave to our west will slow the eastward progress of a
cold front this evening. The cold pool generated by rain and
isolated thunderstorms to our west will push a few showers into the
area late this evening and tonight. Eastward progression overnight
is frustratingly slow, but a trailing shortwave will push the front
through the area on Monday. Showers should increase in coverage just
before sunrise as height falls improve mid level lapse rates and
moisture advection peaks aloft. Humid with lows in the upper 60s and
winds around 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The powerful upper ridge off the Southeast coast will finally
get displaced by a pair of shortwaves, one along the Gulf coast
and another over the Great Lakes, advancing steadily eastward
Monday. These two disturbances essentially make a full-latitude
trough producing 24-hr 500 mb height falls of 140 meters over
the eastern Carolinas.

Prefrontal showers and thunderstorms should be approaching I-95
between 8-10 AM Monday. GFS forecast soundings at Florence and
Lumberton around noon Monday show CAPE near 1200 J/kg with
convective capping eroding as 850 mb temps cool. Helicity values
aren`t too impressive, but 0-6 km bulk shear near 50 knots is.
Fast-moving thunderstorm clusters could produce damaging wind if
instability can remain surface-based and stronger winds aloft
are transported to the surface in downdrafts. SPC`s Day 2
discussion focuses on a better severe risk to our south where an
early MCS could be ongoing. Even outside of convection wind
gusts over 35 mph will be possible just due to daytime mixing.
Forecast highs Monday are in the lower 80s except 70s west of
I-95 where convection is expected to arrive first.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Monday night
after the front pushes offshore as mid level moisture continues
to overrun the front, and as the right entrance region to a 185
kt jet streak over New England sits across the eastern
Carolinas. Storm total precipitation could exceed 1 inch which
is welcome news given two-week rainfall only amounting to 20-50
percent of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A north-south oriented surface high across the Mississippi
Valley will move eastward Tuesday and Wednesday, moving off the
Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night. Cold air originating from
frozen Hudson Bay will be pushed south by the high producing two
chilly days for the Carolinas. Forecast highs both Tuesday and
Wednesday are in the 62-66 range.

The bigger issue may be nighttime lows which given clear skies
and dry air could pose a risk for frost. Tuesday night appears
to be the coldest one with 30s forecast for virtually all
locations more than 10 miles inland. The airmass should modify
by Wednesday night, but the proximity of the high just off the
Mid Atlantic coast should allow for lighter low level winds and
the establishment of a sharper radiational inversion. Forecast
lows are in the upper 30s to around 40 inland.

Southeasterly return flow behind the departing high Thursday
should bring warmer and more humid Atlantic air onshore. The
Canadian and ECMWF are both showing sufficient lift in the low
level moisture feed for showers to affect the Cape Fear region
on Thursday, but the GFS remains drier. Our forecast is
currently dry for Thursday but may need some rain added on
future updates. The next front should arrive on Friday with
rain chances more certain then. Clearing and drying may develop
on Saturday depending how quickly the upper system pushes
eastward behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominately MVFR over the next 2-3 hours before mixing scours
out low clouds across the area. Gusts are already around 20
knots for portions of the area and this is likely to become
widespread during the post-sunrise hours. Stronger gusts in
deeper mixing are expected this afternoon, max gusts up to 30
knots. VFR after mid to late morning for all terminals. VFR
expected tonight ahead of a cold front, but periodic MVFR in
onshore flow is possible. Showers approach the inland terminals
after midnight tonight.

Extended Outlook... A cold front approaching from the west will
likely bring restrictions in showers and thunderstorms Monday
into Tuesday with VFR likely returning by Tuesday afternoon. VFR
through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Winds increase today as a cold front approaches
from the west. An enhanced pressure gradient will bolster an
afternoon sea breeze. Localized enhancement could see a few gusts
approach 25 knots this afternoon, but these are not expected to
cause widespread impacts. Winds increase tonight as the surface
front works its way into the forecast area. SCA conditions are
expected to develop around midnight. Wind waves increase to 4-6
knots overnight and continue to build into Monday.

Monday through Thursday...Strengthening southwest winds are
expected Monday morning in advance of a cold front that should
be entering the central Carolinas. Winds just 2000 feet up could
reach 45 knots, but fortunately relatively cool sea surface
temperatures will not promote deep mixing up into this momentum
aloft. Still, sustained winds near 25 knots will necessitate a
Small Craft Advisory that will remain in effect through early
Tuesday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front may reach the
coastal waters by late Monday afternoon. Rain will fall much of
Monday night even after the front presses offshore and northerly
winds bring cooler air across the area. High pressure should
bring improving weather conditions later Tuesday into
Wednesday, but with the high remaining well north of the
Carolinas our winds won`t consistently diminish below 15 knots
until Wednesday evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Increasing southerly winds and seas around
offshore high pressure and ahead of an incoming cold front are
expected to create a high risk of rip currents today and Monday,
mainly for south-facing beaches. A High Risk for Rip Currents
is in effect for Brunswick today and both Brunswick and northern
Horry today and Monday, with surf heights up to 3-5 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...