973
FXUS62 KILM 162321
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
721 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures near record highs are expected
again on Saturday. A weak cold front accompanied by isolated
showers and storms will track across the area Saturday night.
Mainly dry weather with above normal temps are then expected
early next week until a storm system likely affects the area
toward the middle of next week, bringing better rain chances
and cooler weather for the latter half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
As of 720 PM...No major changes were made to the forecast.
Water vapor imagery early this evening shows the mid-level high
in place across FL with multiple areas of lift moving by well
north of the forecast area in the westerly flow aloft. Very
limited chances for rain here tonight given convective
inhibition. Will continue to see plenty of high clouds and with
SWly surface winds lows tonight will be well above normal.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Above normal temps w/ record high temps possible Saturday
*Isolated damaging wind gusts/large hail possible Saturday
 aftn/eve

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: The mid-level ridge over the area will flatten as
shortwave energy moves through ahead of a surface cold front.
Rain chances overall look to remain limited given the overall
limited moisture but an isolated shower/storm is possible this
evening, mainly in NC, and again Saturday across all of SE NC
and NE SC. There looks to be quite a bit of instability/shear
for any storms to tap into so can`t rule out a few damaging
wind gusts and/or some large hail. Temps should be the big
story though as they will be well above normal, only falling
into the mid 70s tonight for most locales, and then likely into
the lower 90s away from the beaches Saturday when record highs
could be reached (see Climate section below for details on the
record temps).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front is expected to settle southeastward through the
are over Saturday night as a closed mid-upper low and its
associated surface low track across New England. This far
south, forcing for ascent will be meager, but surface
convergence along the front may be enough to develop isolated
strong convection. Prior to midnight, environmental parameters
will support severe weather for any storm which manages to
develop and grow tall enough to take advantage of 45-55 kts of
effective shear amidst waning instability during the evening
and early overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained
a Marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for severe hail and
wind as the anticipated coverage is very low. Otherwise, expect
fairly rapid cooling during the evening after another hot day
with west- southwesterly winds veering to westerly by the end
of the night behind the cold front. Morning lows on Sunday
should end up in the upper 60s to low 70s, coolest north, as
somewhat drier air nudges in.

On Sunday, the front should stall just south of the area as it
becomes aligned parallel to the flow aloft. Building ridging
west of the forecast area will reinstate northwesterly flow
aloft which could bring a cluster of showers or storms to
far southern portions of the forecast area nearest to the front,
but PoPs remain no higher than slight chance (20%) to account
for this threat. Otherwise, mid-level dry air and subsidence
should keep the region dry and very warm with highs in the upper
80s to around 90F with passing high cloudiness.

The continued increase in ridging west of the forecast area
will result in greater subsidence developing through the
atmospheric column, allowing for a drier and more capped
atmosphere to develop on Sunday night. Thus, outside of a
decaying shower scraping our southern areas, the region should
stay dry overnight with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence in the long-term forecast is rather low as a
substantial western US trough with multiple vort maxes evolves
and tracks eastward. This will drag the stalled front back
northeastward as a warm front during the first half of the week,
along which we may see a round or two of convection tracking
southeastward into the forecast area. Otherwise, guidance
generally agrees that higher rain chances can be expected
around midweek as low pressure drags another cold front towards
and through the area from the west. Atmospheric parameters
become more supportive of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday, but the outcome of whether severe storms actually
develop will depend on finer-scale details related to the mid-
upper pattern. Furthermore, whether the cold front clears the
area with dry weather in its wake will also depend on the
outcome of this pattern, but overall, it appears a solid push of
cooler and drier air will be in store at some point by the end
of the week. However, until the front arrives, continued very
warm weather is expected with highs in the upper 80s to around
90, although lower dew points away from the coast should allow
low temps to fall to or below 70F in many locations on Monday
night and Tuesday night, and potentially much cooler than that
behind the front late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Sun, especially
given limited convective chances. Also, LLWS is expected late
tonight, primarily for the coastal terminals as a west-
southwesterly low-level jet increases across the area. Also,
expecting frequent gusts of 20-25 kt with the heating of the day
tomorrow.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...
Moderate to high confidence this period. The area will remain
between an inland trough and approaching weak cold front and
offshore high pressure. Thus, southerly winds will prevail. The
combination of the low-level jet and pressure gradient could
push winds to near Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday when
gusts to near 25 kt are likely, although we don`t feel an
Advisory is warranted at this time, especially since seas should
stay 4 ft or less.

Saturday night through Wednesday...
Southwesterly winds on Saturday evening of 15-20 kts veer to
westerly and subside as a cold front slides through the waters.
Winds become light and variable around or below 10 kts for
Sunday and Monday as the front stalls just south of the area and
wavers (although the sea breeze circulation should yield
enhanced nearshore winds around 10-15 kts). The front should
lift back northward at some point on Tuesday with winds becoming
southerly behind it. Strengthening low pressure northwest of
the waters will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to
increasing flow on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with chances
for showers and thunderstorms peaking ahead of this front.

Seas will relax from their 3-4 ft state Saturday evening into
the 2-3 ft range on Sunday as winds ease up behind the front.
Seas are expected to hold in the 1-3 ft range for Monday and
Tuesday as the flow remains generally light. Seas increase in
tandem with the increasing winds on Wednesday, although how high
waves reach will depend on the strength of the low pressure
system northwest of the waters. Outside of diurnally-driven wind
waves, a persistent 1-2 ft southeasterly swell with a period
around 9 sec will continue.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A new record high was set at Florence, SC today (95F, the old
record was 93F set in 2022). High temperature records may be
challenged again Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads
the region ahead of a cold front. Record highs for our four
climate sites are as follows:

Saturday, May 17th...
Wilmington, NC:      92F (1960, 1990)
Lumberton, NC:       96F (1941)
Florence, SC:        93F (1977)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...RJB/ABW
CLIMATE...ILM