573
FXUS62 KILM 121400
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1000 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the
week. Another storm system is expected to affect the region this
weekend. High pressure returns next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast with the mid morning update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Generally zonal mid-level flow and abundant dry air throughout
the atmosphere will support a sunny day while high pressure
shifting across the Florida peninsula will cause winds to back
towards southerly this afternoon. With downslope flow throughout
the column, expect an abnormally warm and dry day with highs in
the upper 70s to perhaps 80F away from the influence of the
chilly ocean. With winds backing towards SSW during the
afternoon, expect the sea breeze to lift generally northward to
NNEwrd from the coast during the day. West of this sea breeze,
expect very dry air aloft to mix downward, making for RH values
as low as 25-30% which will rapidly dry out fine fuels (e.g.,
pine straw). A subtle impulse preceding a shortwave trough
crossing Dixie Alley may lead to some thin cirrus crossing
northern portions of the forecast area during the late afternoon
into the early evening.

Tonight, a tighter pressure gradient should prevent calm winds
from occurring, instead supporting steady southwest winds
dropping to around 3-5 kts. This should keep lows a bit warmer
than the previous night despite clear skies, with upper 40s to
around 50F forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Expect increased cloud cover with a weakening shortwave
traversing the southeastern US. High temperatures likely to be
in the upper 70s. High pressure will maintain light winds on
Friday, dominated by an afternoon sea breeze with highs
approaching 80 degrees. High pressure moving offshore on Friday
night will see southerly winds increase; mild with lows in the
mid and upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Southerly winds increase on Saturday in response to a surface
low and upper trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley.
Moisture advection within this southerly flow will bring warm
conditions on Saturday and Sunday and could produce the
potential for severe weather as a surface front pushes eastward
on Sunday.

Uncertainty remains high regarding unsettled weather on Sunday.
Ensembles differ in regards to timing of precip and the
associated cold front. Part of this timing difference is the
displacement of synoptic forcing. Even with the progressive GFS
members, the trough is well west of the area on Sunday afternoon
as the convective cold pool outruns its upper level support.
The Euro keeps this trough even farther west. Both models
indicate that the elongated surface low will be somewhere over
Ontario during this time.

Assuming the line does arrive during peak heating on Sunday,
the low level jet peaks above 50 knots in the 925 mb layer.
There is some potential that these strong winds could mix to the
surface, it is likely that this process will be somewhat
compromised by sub dry-adiabatic lapse rates ahead of the line,
poor destabilization due to cloud cover, slower forward speed
as a result of displacement from the parent low, and a cool
marine layer pushing onshore with strong gradient winds out of
the south. In summary, the high-end potential warrants a 15%
chance of severe weather from SPC, but there are challenges that
will need to be overcome to realize this potential. There is
still a long way to go and some models hint at a secondary low
developing over the Mid-Atlantic before the main convective
line which could drastically improve the ability for strong
winds to reach the surface. More to come.

Withstanding any convective potential, confidence is increasing
in strong gradient winds with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

High pressure builds during the start of the work week with
slightly cooler temperature on Monday and gradual recovery
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the 12Z
TAF period. Light or calm winds will become steady WSW within
an hour or so of sunrise and gradually increase in speed with
time. At the coastal terminals, expect a sea breeze to develop
and lift through around midday or early afternoon with winds
becoming nearly south or just west of south behind it. Inland
terminals will see a gradual backing of the winds towards SW
through the day with forecast soundings suggesting gusts in the
15-19kt range are possible amidst full sunshine this afternoon.
Winds will subside this evening, but should remain steady out
of the SSW at around 5 kts through the night beneath clear
skies.

Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR conditions through
Friday. Increasing moisture ahead of a strong storm system may
lead to mist/fog concerns on Friday night into early Saturday.
Better chances for flight restrictions come in by Sunday as a
cold front approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Surface high pressure shifting from the Gulf
across the Florida peninsula will support a gradual backing of
the winds from WSW to SSW during the period. Speeds below 10 kts
through this morning will increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon
as the gradient tightens somewhat and remain in that range
through tonight. Seas in the 1-2 ft range this morning respond
to the faster flow with wave heights bumping into the 2-3 ft
range from late this afternoon through tonight. Seas will be a
combination of SWrly wind waves around 1-2 ft at 4 sec and
lingering easterly swells of 1-3 ft at 8-9 sec.

Thursday through Sunday... High pressure off of the coast
brings southerly and southwest winds to the area late this week.
A passing shortwave could bring a shower or storm offshore on
Thursday night. While the gradient remains weak on Friday,
southeasterly winds increase and gradually veer throughout the
day. Winds increase this weekend ahead of a cold front with SCA
conditions developing as early as Saturday evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...21/ABW