592
FXUS62 KILM 171342
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
942 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will start to increase ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will linger in the area
through the weekend and into the start of next week. Rain
chances will remain elevated through Monday with temperatures
running a bit cooler.

&&

.UPDATE...
Main update this morning was to account for morning convection
that developed and moved northeast across the area. Left over
boundaries from this first round of convection will likely help
initiate additional storms during the next few hours. Besides
left over convective boundaries the sea breeze and differential
heating will also have the potential to kick off convection.
Environment has generally become more favorable for shower and
thunderstorm development with mid and upper level moisture
increasing and weak mid-level impulses moving across the area.
Expect to see higher coverage of storms this afternoon and
evening compared to the last few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will be a repeat of the previous days with the exception
of a higher coverage of the midday thru mid evening convection.
This will be aided by the usual suspects, an active sea breeze
that may not progress as far inland like previous days given
modest SW-WSW flow aloft. Will also have a sfc trof across the
central Carolinas, that will drop further southeast as a sfc
cold front upstream slowly drops toward the SE. The 1 kicker
will be the weak/subtle impulses aloft that pass across the
region further aiding convection. This may allow tstorm activity
to persist well into this evening or possibly into the
overnight period. POPs will be fcst hier than previous days, in
the modest to high chance category. PWs progged in the 2.1 to
2.2 inch range. Expect some gully-washers with storms having
atleast some movement compared to previous days. Training of
tstorms could result in localized flooding. And could observe
SPS worthy tstorms with synoptic winds in the lower levels
increasing later today and tonight. Given the potential
clouds/pcpn, highs today will not reach levels like previous
days. But the humidity and dewpoint levels will be slightly
hier. Combined, heat indices will reach Heat Adv thresholds and
given the experimental NWS Heat Risk map for today illustrating
Category 3, (4 of 5 ), Major, for the entire ILM CWA, will
continue the Heat Advisory already raised.
Heat Risk Map Website: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Approaching mid level trough along with the attendant frontal
systems/troughs will lead to an unsettled couple of days
Thursday and Friday. Global guidance has been signaling for a
few days now a good convective line moving across Thursday
evening and SPC has issued a marginal risk for day two. Near
term/high resolution guidance is on board as well. It also
appears the atmosphere needs a break after this line thus
Friday`s convection could be later in the day/evening as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled pattern continues and although the synoptic forcing
fades in time as the mid level trough lifts/fills...a broad
moisture laden flow will be in place. This area is situated in
between the Bermuda High to the east and an expected mid level
low in the Central Plains. Temperatures remain on course to drop
to near seasonal values and considering the past several
days...that will be something.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to basically dominate much of the 12Z TAF issuance period.
Will have exceptions. May deal with MVFR low stratocu/cu at the
start of this period, especially across the coastal terminals.
Main convection should start to pick up by 16Z. Will indicate
VCTS as a starting point for potential development, followed by
PROB30 groups thru the aftn into mid-evening. Convection may
bring flight restrictions to periodic MVFR/IFR. SW winds will
dominate the 24 hrs with gustiness mainly this aftn and possibly
extending thru tonight, especially at the coastal terminals,
given the progged decent nocturnal low level southwesterly jet.
This will result in active Southwest sfc winds thru the pre-
dawn Thu hrs, preventing fog from developing.

Extended Outlook...Continued potential for daily afternoon and
evening MVFR/IFR convection Thu thru Sun. Activity may persist
thruout Thu and Fri nights given the frontal boundary stalled in
the vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...The area waters will lie in a tightened sfc pg
between Bermuda High pressure, ridging to Florida, and the sfc
trof across the Central Carolinas. Both combined will maintain
decent southwest flow through tonight. SEa breeze, may be more
pinned to the coast than previous days, will add to the winds
especially nearshore. Models indicate a nocturnal low level
jetting, with SW winds progged at 25-35 kt just off the deck.
Will see some of this mix to the ocean sfc at times. Given the
aforementioned features, borderline SCA will be raised for the
entire ILM CWA, Noon today thru 9am Thu. Seas will run 3 to 5 ft
today, 3 to 6 ft tonight, with the 6 footers across the NC
Waters from Cape Fear northward. The locally produced wind wave
at 3 to 6 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum, with a
continued ever present SE swell at 8+ second periods.
Thunderstorm activity over the Atl waters, mainly just
offshore. Could see activity move off the mainland this
aftn/evening given progged storm motions. Predawn nocturnal Atl
convection may move across the local waters.

Thursday through Sunday Night...Residual higher winds and seas
will be in place Thursday perhaps warranting an extension of the
headline but it appears marginal at best. The gradient between
the Piedmont Trough and Bermuda High Pressure dissipates Friday
and as a result the south to southwest flow will drop
considerably to 10-15 knots. Significant seas will plunge as
well dipping to near two feet at times but a range of 2-4 feet
seems reasonable. Some prolonged and widespread convection may
distort wind fields as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents - Strong Longshore Currents:
With an increasing gradient between the inland trough and
Bermuda High Pressure...Strong low level winds warrant a high
risk for rip currents all beaches today outside of Georgetown
County. Strong south to north longshore currents can be expected
as well.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK