731
FXUS62 KILM 061056
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
656 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Chantal will come ashore into South Carolina this
morning. The largest impact on the Carolinas today will be
locally heavy rainfall with the potential for isolated flooding,
strong rip currents, and dangerous surf. Unsettled weather
returns during the middle of the week after somewhat drier
conditions Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall near Litchfield Beach, SC
around 4am this morning. The storm is slowly making its way
cross northeast SC. No changes made to the storm track or
impacts with the 5am advisory. 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical Storm Chantal is currently east of Georgetown,
forecasted to make landfall in northeast SC within the next
couple of hours. Chantal will move across NE SC today, weakening
to a tropical depression as it then moves across
central/eastern NC tonight. The strongest winds will be across
coastal areas, particularly south of Cape Fear, through this
morning, though tropical storm force gusts will be possible
through this evening as the storm moves across CWA. An isolated
tornado or two can`t be ruled out on the east and northeast
sides of Chantal.

Heavy rain remains the primary threat from Chantal. The heavier
rain moved onshore in the last hour or so, and will continue to
impact the area through this evening. Focus will initially be
across coastal areas, particularly near the state line where
Flood Watch remains in effect, through this morning. Higher
amounts possible, especially within the rainband currently
approaching the coast. Rainfall focus shifts inland during the
day as the storm moves into Pee Dee region, and will see a
decrease in shower coverage across coastal counties this
afternoon. Storm total QPF is around 2-4", with locally higher
amounts possible - worth noting there will be places that only
receive less than an inch within CWA depending on where the
heavier rain sets up. Isolated flooding will be possible through
this evening.

As the storm moves north into central/eastern NC after sunset
tonight, dry air on the backside of Chantal will decrease pops
across the area with only lingering showers across northern
areas. Depending on how quick clouds clear out, and if winds
decrease enough, could see fog develop by Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Chantal move north of the area on Monday,
leaving a warm and humid air mass in its wake. Despite
favorable moisture profiles, not seeing much of a forcing
mechanism to warrant higher than chance PoPs, with SW winds and
a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A lot of 00Z guidance has trended
drier actually, so PoPs may end up being lowered in future
forecast updates. Temps right at normal for early July, with
highs in the upr 80s to lwr 90s, and lows Monday night mainly in
the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A more typical summertime pattern develops this week compared
to the past couple days, with frequent chances for showers and
thunderstorms due to transient shortwaves aloft, daily
seabreezes, and ample moisture transport out of the S/SW. Expect
above climo PoPs in this setup, with likely PoPs each day the
second half of the week. Weak steering flow and saturated soils
could quickly produce localized flooding, especially in the
hardest hit areas. Will see high temps up to the low/mid 90s
through the week, with heat indices close to or just shy of Heat
Advisory criteria (105 degrees) Tuesday and Wednesday, slightly
lower thereafter with the higher rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominantly sub-VFR conditions expected for most of today,
primarily due to IFR/MVFR ceilings with intermittent low vsbys
from heavy rain, as Tropical Storm Chantal moves slowly across
northeast SC today and weakens as it moves into central NC
tonight. Cloud heights may bounce between IFR and low-end MVFR,
with occasional brief VFR conditions. Winds will be strongest
across coastal NE SC (MYR/CRE) early this morning, with
southerly gusts of 40-45 kts possible. Winds will be gusty
across rest of CWA as well during the day, with wind directions
veering with tropical storm passage. Isolated thunder will be
possible this morning through the afternoon, but felt chances
are not high enough to include in TAFs. Skies are forecasted to
become scattered late this afternoon into this evening, with VFR
at most terminals by 0z, though may remain broken across inland
SE NC (LBT) through 5-8z.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible
Monday through Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential
early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Tropical Storm Chantal is currently east of
Georgetown and is expected to make landfall in northeast SC
within the next one to two hours. The storm will move inland
across NE SC today, moving across central/eastern NC tonight.
Tropical storm conditions expected across majority of our
coastal waters through midday today before slowly improving but
remaining gusty. By tonight, winds over the waters are
forecasted to be 15-20 kts out of the southwest. Recent buoy obs
show 7-11 ft seas due to Chantal swells - these will slowly
improve through morning after Chantal makes landfall. Seas 6-8
ft midday today are forecasted to lower to 4-5 ft by sunset,
with a weak 1 ft 15 sec swell joining Chantal seas tonight.

Monday through Thursday...Marine headlines are expected to be
over by Monday. Fairly steady marine conditions each day this
period, with Bermuda high pressure offshore and an inland
thermal trough. Winds up to 15-20 kt each aftn/evening out of
the SSW, with 2-4 ft seas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Lingering large swell from Tropical Storm
Chantal will lead to high surf heights and a high rip current
risk today, with the high rip risk potentially continuing into
Monday as well.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110.
     Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ099-109-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054>056-058.
     Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ054-058-059.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...