345
FXUS62 KILM 010957
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
557 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures and dry weather should continue
through Sunday morning as high pressure builds across the
Carolinas. Low pressure developing off the coast Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night could bring rain. Dry weather should
develop by Monday evening and continue through late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will remain in control through the period. Much
lighter winds expected today with clear skies. A cold front
approaching from the Midwest will start to push the center of the
high off to the north late tonight, a bit of a coastal front
starting to form offshore as the high retreats. No rain chances will
come of this, but winds may start to increase after midnight,
particularly at the coast, which would inhibit radiational cooling.
Have put patchy frost in the forecast again for our traditionally
colder spots in Bladen/Pender/Williamsburg and for Marlboro county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A 500 mb vort max diving southeastward through western
Tennessee Sunday morning should move through Georgia Sunday
night. Even though this system doesn`t attain a negative tilt,
enough upper divergence should exist ahead of this system to
induce surface low pressure to develop within a low-level
baroclinic zone off the South Carolina coast Sunday into Sunday
night.

A ribbon of low level moisture off the Atlantic and mid level
moisture from the Gulf will be pulled north ahead of the upper
system, bringing increasing rain chances in late Sunday
afternoon, peaking Sunday night at around 60 percent. Some
guidance like the 00z NAM show moisture clearing eastward off
the coast quickly Sunday night while others (like yesterday`s
12z ECMWF) are significantly slower and keep sizable rain
chances going well into Monday. An objective model blend brings
rain chances down to 20-40 percent Monday morning (highest on
the Cape Fear coast) and then completely dry by Monday evening
as the system shifts farther off the coast.

Although precipitation character should mainly be stratiform,
there is a window of time Sunday night where mid level
conditional instability could reach 500-600 J/kg. A slight
chance of thunder will remain in the forecast for this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper ridge across the northern Gulf and surface high
pressure over the Southeast should both weaken Tuesday into
Wednesday, but will maintain dry weather with continued below
normal temperatures. An upper level shortwave should zip across
the central Appalachians Wednesday night and move off the East
Coast Thursday. This should remain a moisture-starved system and
winds below 700 mb will remain westerly with no trajectories
originating from the Gulf.

Thursday`s shortwave should drive a weak cold front through the
Carolinas, however no real temperature change is anticipated
with highs still near 70 degrees.

A fast and progressive weather pattern is expected to close out
the week as an upper ridge will translate off the East Coast
Thursday night followed by the approach of another shortwave
late Friday. Like with Thursday`s shortwave, trajectories appear
to remain westerly with no significant influx of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some patchy ground fog around but not impacting terminals at
the start of the 12Z TAF period. VFR with light N/NW winds
through the period. Winds will become more NE late tonight as
high pressure moves off to the north with increasing wind speeds
mainly at the coast.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Increasing rain chances could bring
restrictions early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Building high pressure will lead to benign marine
conditions, N-NE winds AOB 10 kts. An approaching front will shift
the center of the high north of the area late tonight with a coastal
front forming offshore. NE winds will increase ~10-15 kts.

Sunday through Wednesday...Low pressure will begin to take shape
50-100 miles off the South Carolina coast Sunday. Models diverge
in terms of timing, but all show the low moving northeastward,
following the western edge of the Gulf Stream off the NC coast
sometime Monday. Given the anticipated offshore track of the
low, moderate northeasterly winds on Sunday should back around
to the north Sunday night into Monday. Winds are expected to
surge to near 20 knots late Monday night into Tuesday morning
when gusts could approach 25 knots. High pressure will build
across the area from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday with
much lighter winds expected.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ105.
SC...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ017.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/LEW