143
FXUS62 KILM 100914
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
414 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will give way to a storm system moving
through the area into early Saturday bring some light wintry
precipitation and minor impacts away from the coast. Cold and
dry weather will then return through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Light wintry precipitation expected inland later today into
 tonight could cause minor impacts

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Overall we didn`t make much change to the previous forecast.
Arctic high pressure will be giving way to a strengthening low
pressure system tracking from the Gulf Coast to along/near the
Southeast U.S. coast through tonight. We start the day with very
cold temps in the 20s and wind chills in the teens (close to
Cold Weather Advisory levels) for most areas along with a very
dry air mass characterized by dewpoints generally in the teens.
Satellite shows higher clouds already moving in from the west as
mid-level shortwave energy approaches from the west. Temperatures
will be a bit tricky today as much will depend on the thickness
of the cloud cover and how quickly and to what extent evaporative
cooling occurs. We continue to prefer the slower model guidance
in regards to how soon measurable precip begins, with little,
if any, expected through the morning. However, if any precip
does develop earlier than anticipated it would likely be mainly
in the form of sleet/snow given the deeper/colder air in place.
Precipitation chances will generally increase this afternoon and
tonight in accordance with deeper moisture and more forcing
with chances diminishing from west to east late tonight as the
surface low pressure system moves away to the northeast. Still
looks like the best timeframe for wintry weather will be this
evening with a tenth to possibly two tenths of an inch of ice
accretion expected, especially on elevated surfaces and near/west
of I-95. Any sleet/snow accumulations should be even less. There
is a small chance of some light ice accretion a bit closer to
the coast so the Winter Weather Advisory may eventually need to
be expanded a bit closer to Conway and Wilmington. If traveling
later today and tonight, especially heading westward, be mindful
of potentially hazardous driving conditions. Overall, precip
amounts should total near a half inch, which is much-needed for
sure given the drought situation. Highs today should only top
out near 40 degrees, possibly even sticking into the mid 30s
closer to the Pee Dee, with lows tonight near freezing likely
coming this evening before temps steady or rise overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
All wintry mix ceases before sunrise Saturday morning. Temperatures
rise above freezing by 7-8 AM EST, and the last of the rain chances
along the coast die out by the mid-morning hours. Skies clear out
from west to east throughout the day as the low pressure pushes
offshore. Sunshine allows highs to recover into the mid-to-upper
40s, which certainly eliminates any of the minor impacts we`re
expecting from the previous night`s freezing rain. Even so, these
high temperatures remain 8-9 degrees below normal for mid-
January. Lows Saturday night dip well into the low-to-mid 20s. A
cold breeze out of the northwest at 10-15 mph calms by sunset.

Sunday, look for clear skies, but Arctic air sticks around. Highs
in the mid-to-upper 40s once again, with lows Sunday night in
the low- to-mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extended forecast still looks quite cold and dry. Temperatures
rebound a bit Monday, with highs in the lower 50s, but this
still remains below seasonal norms. A couple of dry cold fronts
move through Monday night and Wednesday, which just reinforces
the Arctic airmass. Highs in the mid-to-upper 40s Tuesday,
becoming only the lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows each
night never leave the 20s, with more areas seeing the teens by
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through about 00Z/11 with deteriorating conditions pretty
quickly to IFR/VLIFR thereafter as low pressure approaches from
the SW. Low-level sub-freezing air will be in place initially so
some light wintry precip is expected inland at KFLO/KLBT,
mainly in the form of sleet. However, warmer air moving in aloft
should transition the precip to freezing rain and then rain by
06Z/11. Could also see LLWS develop toward the end of the period
as a strong southerly jet moves into the area.

Extended Outlook...MVFR cigs/vsbys early Fri night with IFR
possible during predawn Sat hrs into daylight Sat morning
as a storm system moves through. With possible wintry precip,
mainly Fri eve across LBT and FLO terminals. High pressure and
VFR to dominate Sun thru Tue of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure will be giving way to a
strengthening low pressure system moving northeast from the Gulf
Coast and over/near the local waters. Winds/seas will increase
to SCA levels later tonight as a result. Some gusts could reach
or exceed gale force, mainly off the Georgetown County coast,
and thus a marginal/brief Gale Warning may eventually be needed.

Saturday through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory continues until
4 PM EST Saturday. From there, winds stay locked out of the
north or northwest, at first decreasing to 5-10 kts Sunday, and
rebounding up to 10-15 kts Sunday night through Tuesday. Seas
improve from 2-4 ft Saturday evening to 1-3 ft by Sunday. Seas
may continue to drop slightly to 1-2 ft by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for NCZ087-096-099-105.
SC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/IGB