520
FXUS62 KILM 070043
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
743 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our west will move across the Carolinas Friday,
then offshore Friday night. Low pressure developing along the
Gulf Coast may bring clouds and rain to the area Saturday night
through Sunday night. The low should move offshore Monday with
improving weather conditions developing later in the day. High
pressure should bring warmer and drier weather for the middle of
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Winds are subsiding quickly as the boundary layer stabilizes.
Surface high pressure centered across the lower Mississippi
Valley should push eastward to Georgia by daybreak. Local
surface wind speeds that have already fallen to under 10 mph
should diminish to 0-3 mph with a good radiational inversion
developing tonight. The previous forecast had already placed
forecast lows on the lower end of the guidance envelope, so no
significant changes were necessary with this evening`s forecast
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As dry air streams in, cumulus is clearing out from SW to NE and is
largely out of our area. WNW winds are still gusting 25-35 kts as
the pressure gradient remains tight until tonight where high
pressure will start to creep in from the SW. This should cause winds
to drop off sharply after sunset where they`ll become light and
offshore until Friday morning. Lows will be near freezing, with our
colder spots radiating out into the mid 20s. Come Friday morning,
the high will be centered to our south with SW flow setting up over
the area. This should allow for some WAA and a recovery of
temperatures into the 60s. Aloft, a disturbance will pass by to the
north. Any low level moisture looks to get lost in the mountains,
but it will come with increased cloud cover into Friday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very quiet through the short term period as a broad
southwest flow will be in place at least through Saturday. A cold
front will drift across the area Saturday night into Sunday and with
good moisture and isentropic lift...showers move into the area south
to north Sunday. After a warm Saturday...Sunday will be almost the
polar opposite with highs in the perhaps rain/wind driven middle to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Reasonable agreement on the mid level low moving across
the southeast Monday so rain chances remain in the forecast. Tuesday
and Wednesday offer up dry and warm conditions with a zonal flow
developing at 500mb. A distant shortwave brings back an introduction
of pops late in the period but confidence/timing with this feature
is low due to timing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions continues for the next 24
hours. Gusty west winds have quickly diminished with the loss
of daylight, and winds may diminish to near calm before sunrise.
Mid to high level clouds will increase around daybreak, but VFR
conditions should continue beneath cloud bases no lower than
about 15000 feet AGL. High pressure moving offshore will allow
wind directions to become southwesterly Friday afternoon with
speeds increasing to 10-12 knots.

Extended Outlook...There is high confidence VFR conditions will
continue through Saturday. Low pressure developing along the
Gulf Coast should spread clouds and rain north toward the
Carolinas late Saturday night through Sunday Night and there is
moderate confidence MVFR to IFR conditions will develop then.
Moderate confidence exists for VFR conditions returning during
the day Monday as low pressure exits the Southeast coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will come to an end
tonight as low pressure continues off to the NE and high pressure
builds in from the SW where it will stay centered. The pressure
gradient will relax with offshore flow becoming SW at ~10 kts by
Friday afternoon. Seas will decrease from 3-6 ft to 1-2 ft by Friday
morning where they`ll linger through the rest of the period.

Friday Night through Tuesday...A healthy southwest flow will be in
place Friday night and most of Saturday. Conditions will change
quickly Sunday with a brisk NE flow with seas possibly
increasing to headline criteria. This threat will persist
through most of the day Monday as the set up will be relatively
slow to change. After a brief offshore flow in the wake of the
system a return flow develops by the end of the period. As
mentioned earlier the events of Sunday and Monday represent the
worst of conditions during the forecast period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...Air Quality Alert until 6 PM EST Saturday for SCZ054-058-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK/LEW