698
FXUS62 KILM 082029
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
429 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area overnight. Cool
temperatures and increasing rain chances to follow for end of
the week, as an offshore low moves up the east coast. Gusty
winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions will
impact the area starting Friday with improvement into early next
week. High pressure will build in with drier conditions into mid
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light showers will precede a cold front that will enter the region
this evening, pushing through overnight. Cool and dry advection then
slated for the latter half of tonight into Thursday. Temperature
guidance is fairly tightly clustered, though some concern exists
that guidance may be a tad too mild tonight, though it looks well
mixed. Tomorrow will see decreasing clouds, with some moisture
remaining trapped beneath a healthy inversion at 4kft. The recent
warmth ended in the post-frontal airmass, Thursday nights in the mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
This period will be decidedly the pre-low period as the offshore low
should develop to our south but we won`t feel many impacts outside
of increasingly hazardous marine conditions. For land, we`ll see
continued gusty winds even behind the front as we`re sandwiched
between high pressure and the offshore low and increasing rainfall
chances primarily for our coastal areas. Thunder chances and
rainfall totals are low away from the immediate coast as we should
see mainly stratiform rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Even into Saturday there`s uncertainty around where this low will
track, with largest consensus that it will remain just offshore from
our area passing close to Cape Lookout and perhaps over the Outer
Banks late this weekend into early next week. Rain chances will
expand across the area into Saturday with higher rainfall totals
closer to the coast. By Monday the low should be past our area where
it will continue up the east coast. All that`s left will be the
ridging high pressure inland which will take hold bringing drier
weather into mid next week with another warm up.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moderate confidence in the near term that shower coverage remains
fairly low and conditions remain VFR. Tougher call is thunder
because forcing for lift is weak until after sunset with front
approaching, but sufficient instability for a few rumbles has
already developed. Wind shifts to NE overnight behind the boundary,
remaining tame at FLO and LBT but growing breezy at coastal
terminals. A patch of MVFR cigs should slide down the coast behind
the boundary as well, likely missing inland terminals.

Extended Outlook...A coastal storm could lead to flight restrictions
and gusty winds at coastal terminals Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... Quiet prefrontal conditions at the current time,
but not expected to last. Cold front pushes through tonight bringing
a wind shift followed by building wind and seas. Wind and seas both
to end up in advisory criteria overnight, the seas lagging as always
by a few hours. Gradient strengthens further on Thursday leading to
gales at least in gusts. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a
Warning though confidence is low at this point as to whether or not
it will verify especially with respect to sustained winds.

Thursday Night through Monday...Gale Force gusts will impact our
waters starting Thursday night as we become wedged between ridging
high pressure inland and coastal low pressure offshore. This low
pressure will travel north through the period, possibly still off
the NC coast by Monday. This will lead to prolonged hazardous marine
conditions, with Gales possibly lingering through the day Friday.
Seas will reach as high as 5-8 ft ~20 nm offshore, and 6 ft breakers
could be seen at mainly SE-facing beaches as early as Friday. The
low should pass closest to us Saturday where we could see another
surge of higher gusts and turbulent seas with improving but still
hazardous conditions through the end of the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and high astronomical tides due to the recent full moon
will bring minor tidal flooding with each morning high tide, and
possibly the evening high tides as well (now the smaller of the
two), across most of the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River
including downtown Wilmington, through the weekend.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for beaches north
of Cape Fear today, likely continuing through the weekend due to
strengthening ENE swell and a developing low pressure system off the
coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...