238
FXUS62 KILM 010729
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
329 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms may accompany a cold front moving
south across the Carolinas today. Cooler weather is expected
to persist through Wednesday. Heat and humidity will return
late in the week with good potential for heat indices to exceed
105 degrees beginning Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front currently in Appalachia
that is starting to push into the Piedmont. Lift ahead of this front
has caused plenty of showers and thunderstorms just north of the
local forecast area (in NWS Raleigh`s and Morehead City`s
territory). However, showers and storms have more recently pushed
onshore within the last hour or so, mostly spilling into the Cape
Fear region. While the overnight rainfall has not been nearly as
widespread as we`ve hoped, parts of New Hanover and Brunswick
Counties have gotten some beneficial rain so far this morning, with
some areas registering near an inch.

Forcing will continue to get better towards sunrise this morning,
with more showers and storms possibly on the way for the Cape Fear
region especially. Cold front will start to push through the local
forecast area later this morning, where more sufficient lift and
instability will be present. However, dry air in the mid-levels
looks to not only inhibit the severe weather chances, but also
inhibit the coverage of the storms overall. Best forcing will either
be offshore or well to the north, so areas along and west of I-95
may have trouble recording much of anything today. The timing of the
front pushing towards the coast early this afternoon does time
decently well with the seabreeze, and the convergence of those two
boundaries could be something to watch. This may create a more
organized line of storms that starts to spawn along the coastal
counties by midday, and pushing offshore by late in the afternoon.

Plenty of cloud cover today couple with northeasterly winds this
afternoon will bring some much needed relief with the temperatures.
Highs today only reach the lower 80s at best. In fact, it would not
be surprising if some parts of southeast NC only reach the mid-to-
upper 70s. No Heat Advisory concerns today. Hooray!

Winds aloft pull northwesterly tonight, allowing for some noticeably
cooler and drier air to settle in. Better clearing takes place
inland, but coastal areas may still deal with some thicker cloud
cover tonight. Comfortable lows dip down into the low-to-mid 60s
inland, near 70 at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Today`s cold front should be stalled near the Florida-Georgia
state line Tuesday. Mid and upper level subtropical ridging will
spread east from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and
toward the Carolinas by Wednesday. The mid and upper levels
should remain dry with the ridge, but low level easterly winds
between the old decaying front and high pressure moving off New
England may produce isolated showers across southern portions of
the Grand Strand through the period.

The biggest story for the midweek period is going to be the
below normal temperatures, particularly noteworthy compared to
what we`ve been through this month. Florence, SC has just had 19
consecutive days with highs in the 90s and 100s, and North
Myrtle Beach has had two recent days with low temperatures in
the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level ridge should settle across the Carolinas late
this week, deflecting the jet stream and main storm track toward
the Canadian border. This ridge should also ensure Caribbean
and Gulf tropical cyclones can`t gain latitude to affect the
Southeast states. Nestled beneath this ridge and its subsidence,
hot July sun will start to bake the Carolinas again.

We`re looking at highs climbing back into the 90s away from the
beaches again by Thursday, then soaring into the middle to upper
90s Friday and Saturday. Coupled with dewpoints increasing back
into the mid 70s, heat indices could exceed 105 degrees Friday
and could even approach 110 degrees on Saturday.

Even with the high parked overhead it`s almost impossible to
say there won`t be isolated showers and thunderstorms around
this time of year. Forecast rain chances are negligible
Thursday, then increase slightly Friday and Saturday with
surging boundary layer dewpoints. The GFS maintains strong
ridging into Sunday but the ECMWF and Canadian shift the center
offshore with falling heights from a train of shortwaves over
the Great Lakes. This should allow the subsidence inversion to
weaken and we may see an uptick in the coverage of showers and
storms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lull in the activity continues to open the 06Z TAF period, with
ceilings bouncing between VFR and MVFR. May have more scattered
convection that picks up before sunrise this morning, with TEMPO
groups for TSRA kicking in from 08-12Z along the coast.
Meanwhile, may have some isolated showers with a few rumbles of
thunder accompany KFLO/KLBT within the next hour or two, but
confidence is shaky there. Coastal terminals may have a second
round of convection this afternoon in the 16-19Z window. More
widespread MVFR should settle in over the next few hours,
lingering through the majority of the TAF period. IFR
visibilities possible in TSRA. Winds southwesterly now, with a
few gusts at or above 20kts at the coast. Cold front will slowly
move through today, causing gradual veering of the winds to
westerly to northwesterly to northeasterly.

Extended Outlook...Gradual improvement to VFR late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. From there, VFR should dominate through
the end of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Stiff southwesterly winds noted currently, with
frequent gusts at or just above 20kts. Cold front approaches the
area this morning, and as it starts to move through, winds gradually
veer westerly, then quickly northerly by this afternoon. Front slows
down and the gradient builds. Winds shift northeasterly by early
this evening, with sustained speeds clocking in at 20kts. Wouldn`t
be surprised to have gusts up to 25kts, but holding off on a Small
Craft Advisory for now. Not sure of those 25kt gusts are going to be
very consistent. Seas at 2-4ft increase to 3-5ft by this
evening.

Tuesday through Friday Night...Today`s cold front should be
stalled near the Florida-Georgia state line Tuesday morning.
Northeasterly winds 15-20 kt here across the Carolinas will
gradually diminish in speed through Wednesday while veering
more easterly as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes across
New England, then off the East Coast. Our winds should finally
veer southerly as the ridge gets farther offshore Thursday
afternoon. From there through the weekend it`s a typical summer
pattern with daily seabreezes and south to southwest winds
expected to dominate, along with isolated showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although there has been isolated heavy rainfall in spots over the
past few days, the current U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate
drought (D1) across portions of eastern North and South Carolina.
This drought has developed due to 60 day rainfall totals running
well below normal plus recent hot, dry weather. Some areas closer to
the coast (particularly the Cape Fear region) may get some
beneficial rainfall totals today, but it does not look as widespread
as we once hoped. After this cold front moves out tonight, hot and
mostly dry weather redevelop late in the week. Heat indices may push
above 105 degrees by this weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/IGB
FIRE WEATHER...IGB