286
FXUS62 KILM 071118
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
618 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather today will be followed by one last round of cold
rain or drizzle on Monday as a disturbance moves through. Cold
and dry high pressure will build over the area into Tuesday.
Temperatures return back to normal midweek as high pressure
shifts off the coast. Rain chances increase Friday ahead of a
cold front, with more cold air arriving for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Aviation section updated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another cloudy and cool day on tap, although rain chances will be
drastically reduced. In fact, other than maybe a few spits of
drizzle/mist in the AM bulk of the forecast area will remain dry.
The front that had been lingering closer to the coast has finally
been pushed farther offshore and much drier air aloft is spreading
over the region. The boundary layer remains very moist, nearly
saturated, and is the reason for the widespread fog and low cloud.
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all but the coastal
counties and it`s possible some of the denser fog bleeds into these
areas as well, if winds drop off and skies continue to clear out.
Fly in the ointment with respect to fog is the trough moving across
the area. The resulting wind shift is also leading to an increase in
boundary layer winds, just enough to mix out dense fog. Once winds
drop back near calm visibility will drop under 1 mile.

Low levels remain moist today and the stable air mass will resist
mixing. The result will be clouds and fog hanging around through the
morning and possibly the first part of the afternoon. Do expect to
see some late day clearing which will help highs a bit, especially
inland, however highs will once again come in below normal with many
areas not hitting 50. Any clearing today is short lived as the next
system, another southern stream shortwave moves in from the west-
southwest. Moisture ahead of this feature shows up late in the day
with increasing and thickening cirrus. Rain chances through daybreak
Mon will be limited by lingering dry air below 4k ft and the lack of
forcing. What little isentropic lift is present is within the layer
of dry air through the end of the near term. Lows tonight will end
up near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave will be moving through the Carolinas as it rounds the
base of a very broad trough on Monday. This will bring one last
round of cold rain before drying takes place as it lifts off to
the northeast into Mon eve. This shortwave will help deepen sfc
low offshore with increasing northerly flow helping to advect
in cold air. Temps may struggle to get much past 40 in a stiff
northerly wind with cold rain or drizzle on Mon. Wind chill
temps should be in the 30s as northerly winds increase.

Soundings show a fairly deep saturated column to start on Mon
with cold rain, but as the column dries from the top down into
the evening, the temps drop down below freezing. The moisture at
this point will only be limited to the first few thousand feet
and therefore even if the sfc temp drops below freezing, will
not get anything more than freezing drizzle. Also, the ground
temps will be too warm to worry about anything. The typical cold
air chasing the moisture and for now, sfc temps will remain
above freezing until pcp ends.

As the trough axis in the mid to upper levels shifts offshore
into Mon night, deep cold and dry air will help scour out the
airmass. CAA will bring some chilly overnight lows with temps
already down near freezing by late Mon eve and dropping down
into the 20s across the area for lows. After a chilly start on
Tues, temps will rebound into the 40s for one last chilly day
but winds will diminish as center of high shifts nearly
overhead. This will lead to another cold night Tues with temps
down near freezing or below.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The center of the high shifts offshore and weakens with a
return flow setting up for Wednesday. A fairly zonal flow will
exist with a very broad trough across the CONUS. Overall,
warming will take place with temps finally making it back around
normal in a southerly return flow. High temps will be back
within a few degrees of 60 Wed through Fri and lows will be back
toward 40 or above.

By Fri digging mid to upper trough pushes a cold front into the
Carolinas. Should see increasing clouds and chc of pcp,
although it does not look like there will be much moisture
return so not expecting much with this system. Once the system
shifts off shore later on Friday, deep cold air will run down
from Canada, leaving a chilly but dry weekend as high pressure
builds in. Temps will drop well below normal by Sat with highs
in the 40s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread IFR this morning with a mix of low stratus and fog,
with dense fog west of I-95. Dense fog may spread a bit farther
east during the next hour or so. IFR will persist into late
morning, possibly lingering into the first hour or two of the
afternoon. There is very dry air above the boundary layer, but
the stable nature of the air mass will limit mixing. Weak
mixing will help keep low cloud in place. Eventually the dry
air will win out, but it will take a while. Light winds from the
east to northeast will contribute to the low level stability
and not provide much help as far as mixing goes. Once ceilings
do start to lift/break should be a relatively quick clearing
process.

High clouds thicken later today with bases gradually lowering
this evening and overnight as the next system approaches. Boundary
layer mixing will be strong enough to all but eliminate any
significant fog threat. However, MVFR ceilings arrive at SC
terminals just before sunrise. IFR ceilings will hold off until
beyond the end of the valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings Monday with IFR likely
Monday night. VFR returns Tuesday lasting through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...North to northeast flow through tonight as
high pressure to the north slowly migrates east. Ill-defined
gradient into this evening will keep flow around 10 kt. Approach
of the next system, expected Mon, increases the gradient
tonight with northerly flow increasing to near 15 kt with gusts
in excess of 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft into tonight
before increasing winds build seas to 2-3 ft overnight. An
easterly swell will be dominant today, but the northeast wind

Monday through Thursday...
Shortwave will help to deepen low pressure offshore helping to
tighten the gradient as high pressure builds in behind it. This
will produce stiff northerly winds increasing through Mon up to
20 to 25 kts. This will help to push seas up to 4 to 6 ft on Mon
and possibly up to 5 to 8 ft Mon night. Small Craft Advisory
conditions should begin as early as noon on Monday and will last
into Tues before diminishing as high pressure migrates overhead.
by Tues evening a light return flow will develop as high
pressure makes itself farther offshore. This will allow seas to
drop to 2 to 4 ft Tues night into Wed. Should see winds back
around from the north becoming W to SW into Wed. A W-SW flow
should persist around 10 to 15 kts through Thurs and may pickup
on Fri as a cold front approaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-
     099.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/RGZ