Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
173 FXUS62 KILM 031745 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1245 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring rain-free conditions and a slight warmup through Wednesday. A cold front will bring seasonable temperatures but no rain Thursday, and a second warmup will then begin. A stronger cold front arrives late Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Potent mid level shortwave moving off to the east northeast along with the associated showers and cloud cover. Surface high pressure will build in later this afternoon and build to the southeast through Tuesday with clear/sunny skies. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s with Tuesday`s highs in the middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure overhead early Tuesday night, shifting its center off the coast by sunrise Wednesday. This supports some of the cooler guidance values, though the overall spread isn`t very large. Wednesday`s light southerly flow will allow for an afternoon that will warm to seasonable values under full sunshine. A continuation of southerly breezes Wednesday night will keep lows near 50 under clear skies and a bright full moon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak cold front pushes through with little more than a wind shift as the prefrontal moisture influx is negligible. The post-frontal high translates east pretty quickly and it will be offshore by Friday. Locally this means return flow again and a continuation of slightly warm temperatures. This trend will continue unabated through Sunday, brought to an end by a strong cold front late in the day or Sun night. The CAA following this boundary looks fairly impressive and a cool, breezy Monday appears likely. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level shortwave is moving exiting to the east northeast this afternoon and any lingering ceilings will soon be a thing of the past. VFR will then be in place through the forecast period. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Brief IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in early morning ground fog Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Northwest winds currently in a range of 15-20 knots on the way up just a few more knots to 20-25 for a few hours this evening. By Tuesday the flow will diminish and turn more northerly with a range of 15-20 knots. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the mostly offshore flow. Tuesday night through Saturday... Very light winds to start the period as center of high pressure starts overhead, moving offshore by Wednesday. This both turns winds to SW and also allows for a few knots of speed increase. Wind waves will obviously be quite minimal but a small SE swell component remains for a dominant wave height in the 2-3 ft range. A cold front pushes through Thursday for a period of onshore flow but the high behind the boundary moves offshore quickly for a return of south to southwesterly flow by Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...ILM