939
FXUS62 KILM 080633
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
233 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area later today and tonight.
Cool temperatures to follow for end of the week, with an
offshore low possibly bringing rain, gusty winds, and coastal
flooding to the area Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light wind and small dewpoint depressions this morning will lead to
patchy fog. Will continue to monitor for dense fog potential,
however with plenty of mid and high clouds moving in from the west,
chances are lessening. A sfc cold front is still progged to cross
the area this aftn and evening, accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms, but severe weather and flash flooding is not expected
as the front moves through quickly. Drying trend then for tonight as
lower sfc dewpoints advect in from the north, while clouds persist
due to near saturation around 800-850 mb, precluding fog
formation.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be building in from the
northeast and this when pairing up with a baroclinic zone to the
south will create cool and windy couple of days. It appears
sufficient dry air is available for some sunshine Thursday seemingly
trending downward Friday as moisture increases. Any pops are confined
well offshore until late Friday. Highs will be in the lower 70s both
days with lows in the middle to upper 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect an unsettled weekend as low pressure develops
just offshore...yes there remain model differences and moves up to
the north. Pops have been expanded a bit to the west and higher
along the coast but not necessarily by a lot. It appears the trend
is for this event to be primarily concentrated on marine/surf zone
impacts. Temperatures won`t change much for the weekend with highs
in the lower 70s or so and lows in the upper 50s. Its likely the
diurnal range will be lower with the moisture. Improving conditions
are expected later Sunday and into early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR to start off the 06Z TAF period. Moderate confidence in
MVFR/IFR fog this morning, with plenty of mid and high clouds over
the area precluding higher chances of low vsbys. FLO appears to have
the best chance at IFR restrictions with some LIFR possible. VFR
develops with increasing winds daytime today. A line of showers and
storms will develop for the afternoon accompanied by brief
restrictions.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible tonight mainly
towards the coast in ceilings, with showers and trailing low clouds.
Some of the restrictions may continue into Thursday near the coast,
depending on the speed of the front. Aforementioned front may stall
offshore, and could create periodic restrictions for the coastal
terminals throughout the weekend, due to rain.


&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions daytime today ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front crosses the waters this evening,
followed by a quick CAA surge moving from north to south starting at
or just after midnight. By early Thursday morning, expect NNE wind
gusting to 25-30 kt and seas up to 6 ft.

Thursday through Sunday...
Rugged conditions still expected for most of the period as low
pressure develops offshore and moves northward with a strong
pressure gradient developing in tandem with high pressure to the
northeast. A Gale Watch has been issued for later Thursday extending
into early Friday with a Small Craft Advisory preceding this.
Significant seas will be 3-8/9 feet with some double digit values
possible. Some improvement in overall conditions is expected later
in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and high astronomical tides due to the recent full
moon will bring minor tidal flooding with each morning high
tide, and possibly the evening high tides as well, across most
of the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River including
downtown Wilmington, through the weekend.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for beaches north
of Cape Fear today, likely continuing through the weekend due to
strengthening ENE swell and a developing low pressure system off the
coast.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS