676
FXUS62 KILM 300811
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
411 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Despite a weak front moving across the area Tuesday, warm
temperatures should continue through the end of the week.
A stronger cold front could arrive this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Local forecast area continues to remain between remnant low of
Helene and ridge in the vicinity of the Bahamas, but the upper
low and its associated trough will become more positively tilted
with a greater west to east component to the flow as it
gradually weakens and shifts east dragging a weak front closer
to the area today. Better convergence and lift in moist SW flow
ahead of it will help to produce iso to sct shwrs/tstms today
as low shifts east drawing weak sfc front closer. Looks like the
best chc will be toward the I-95 corridor initially this
morning aided by weak perturbation aloft moving from SW to NE,
but main focus will remain over northern tier counties. Model
pcp water reaches up to almost 2 inches over I-95 this morning
with another smaller spike to 1.75 inches this afternoon over
northern tier. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 80s once
again. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening low pressure from the surface through 500 mb centered
across Tennessee is the remnant swirl of former Hurricane Helene.
This feature should shift eastward and move off the North Carolina
coast Tuesday afternoon, pushing a cold front southward across the
area. Forecast temperatures at 850 mb between +14 and +15C are 1-2C
above normal, and I suspect this will carry over to Tuesday`s highs
also running a few degrees above normal: 83-86F. Dewpoints should
remain high enough, around 70 degrees, ahead of the front to produce
a shallow layer of instability sufficient for isolated afternoon
showers to develop, especially across SE North Carolina where the
front should arrive during peak heating. Forecast PoPs are only 20-
30 percent.

Winds should veer to the north Tuesday night and northeast on
Wednesday as the low exits the coast and high pressure builds in
from the Midwest. There won`t be a significant airmass change
given the source region for this new airmass is the seasonably
warm ocean off the Mid Atlantic coast. Forecast highs and lows
remains in the 80s and 60s, respectively. The high should reach
the East Coast by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A transitory ridge at 500 mb should move off the East Coast on
Friday. The next feature, shown with varying strength among
different models, is an energetic shortwave moving across the Great
Lakes and New England Saturday into Sunday. This should be
sufficient to push a cold front southward across the Carolinas
Saturday Night. Up until the front arrives the same warm airmass
should continue with highs Friday and Saturday still likely to reach
the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Isolated convective
showers will be possible both days. Assuming the front is to our
south on Sunday, highs may stay in the 70s with a renewed push of
northerly winds.

Attention has understandably been focused on possible tropical
cyclone development in the Caribbean or Gulf late this week, an area
NHC currently has 50 percent odds for a cyclone developing. Although
it`s far too early to know for sure, any impacts this far north are
likely to remain beyond seven days out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions should give way to some MVFR to IFR vsbys in fog and
low ceilings early this morning, especially right around
daybreak. The best chance of lower LIFR vsbys looks like it
will remain north of local terminals. Should see cu around this
aftn with potential for sub-VFR ceilings or vsbys in brief
shwrs/tstms, mainly inland terminals this afternoon.


Extended Outlook...VFR should return through the weekend under
high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Expect S to SW winds 10 KT or less today but
winds will begin to veer to the W overnight into early Tues as
front draws closer. Seas will remain 2 to 3 ft with a minimal
longer period easterly swell mixing in.

Tuesday through Friday...Surface low pressure will exit the North
Carolina coast Tuesday morning, allowing a weak front to slide south
across the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. North
to northeast winds are expected Wednesday as the next high builds in
from the Midwest. Northeast winds should continue through late in
the week between high pressure to the north and lower pressures
across the Florida and the Gulf. Any potential tropical issues for
the Southeast should hold off until early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ