415
FXUS62 KILM 101017
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
617 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Milton will pass well to the south and southeast
through Friday bringing hazardous marine and surf conditions
along with breezy conditions mainly in coastal areas through
tonight. High pressure will then build in bringing improving
conditions late this week into early next week. A dry cold front
will then cross the region Monday followed by cool high
pressure Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes with the sunrise update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Hurricane Milton over east-central FL will continue to move
eastward into the Atlantic later this morning and then farther
out into the Atlantic through tonight while weakening to a
tropical storm. Although the storm will stay well to our
southeast the tight pressure gradient between it and high
pressure to the north along with a passing LLJ will lead to
breezy/gusty conditions, mainly after daybreak and lasting
through the evening. Although the steadier and gustiest winds to
near 40 mph should occur near the coast we do think even inland
areas will see some gusts to around 35 mph due to some vertical
mixing. Otherwise, plenty of mid/high clouds to start the day
with some low clouds near the coast before skies clear from the
west this afternoon. Highs will be below normal, mainly lower
70s, with lows tonight likely in the mid to upper 40s inland
away from the warmer coastal locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There may be some lingering gusts Friday morning after daybreak
before winds quickly weaken during the day as high pressure
moves into the area from the northwest. Deep north-northeast
flow will maintain below normal temps through Friday night.
Highs Friday in the low 70s with low temps Friday night in the
low to mid 40s, the coolest temps of the season thus far
courtesy of CAA and ideal radiational cooling conditions. High
pressure center shifts south of the area on Saturday with
continued clear skies and temps increasing to near normal. Highs
in the mid to upper 70s during the day and around 50F Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions in store for Sunday into next week. As surface
high pressure shifts offshore Sunday, an upper trough digs down
from the Great Lakes region through early next week. A strong,
but moisture limited, cold front is progged to move across the
area sometime Monday followed by cool high pressure. Near to
slightly above normal temps Sunday will cool to well below
normal behind the front. Global models are currently showing
850mb temps dropping to below 5C Tuesday night and Wednesday,
which is below the 10th percentile for this time of year based
on nearby sounding climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through 12Z/11. Main concern
is gusty winds, especially near the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR, due
to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the
north and Hurricane Milton tracking east off the east- central
FL coast staying well southeast of the local area. Strong low-
level jetting is expected to linger into this evening though which
may lead to LLWS, especially near the coast, as surface winds
diminish.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...The nearshore Atlantic waters off the SE NC
and NE SC coasts will remain between high pressure to the north
and Hurricane Milton to the south which will be moving east
farther into the Atlantic and away from the area. However, the
pressure gradient will be strong, especially through this
evening, leading to several hours of 35+ kt gusts and thus we
have Tropical Storm Warnings now for all the waters. Significant
wave heights, mainly comprised of wind waves but also some
lingering swells, should top out at 10 ft, especially off
Georgetown County, with up to 9 ft elsewhere. Thus, very
hazardous conditions are expected and most mariners are advised
to stay in port.

Friday through Monday...Hazardous marine conditions continue
Friday, with gusty northeast winds and 5-8 ft seas early. Both
winds and seas will be improving through the day as Milton moves
further away and high pressure shifts over the area. Current
forecast has sub-SCA conditions across the local coastal waters
by late Friday evening. Light winds Saturday as high pressure
shifts to the south followed by increasing southwest winds
Sunday afternoon into Monday as a strong cold front approaches
from the west. Seas 2-4 ft this weekend, primarily long period E
swell, build to 3-5 Monday due to SW fresh swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is forecasted along area beaches and the
Lower Cape Fear River during high tide later today, aided by
strong east-northeast winds north of Milton. Periods of minor
coastal flooding will likely continue along the Lower Cape Fear
Friday and possibly Saturday as well.

High rip current risk is in effect for east-facing beaches today
and will likely continue tomorrow. High Surf Advisory has also
been issued for northeast SC beaches through Friday morning for
breaking wave heights up to 7 feet. Surf conditions improve for
Saturday and even moreso Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon
     for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Friday for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...