879
FXUS62 KILM 111845
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
245 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a gradual return to typical summertime conditions of
afternoon storms and near normal temperatures through the
middle of the week. A weak cold front may drop down through the
Eastern Carolinas by the weekend, possibly bringing drier
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and storms will continue for the remainder of the afternoon
along a dissipating coastal trough that has shifted inland with
assistance from convective outflow. Convection will generally
spread inland and then northeastward this evening. As showers
dissipate during the convective minimum, light southerly winds
will become calm and patchy fog is likely to develop overnight.
With mid level clouds overhead, confidence in dense fog or
widespread fog in general is low. Patchy fog during the morning
should mix quickly as warm temperatures return.

Clearing early in the day will allow instability to build. Remnants
of the surface boundary will be positioned over the central
Carolinas. Weak ridging aloft and troughing over the central US
will squeeze a plume of southerly moisture advection northward.
Ample moisture and instability should assist in the development
of widespread showers and storms on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure finally back to a more normal summerlike pattern
with SW return flow and temps back to near or just above normal.
A ridge extending up from the south will maintain a more
westerly flow aloft and a shortwave to the west will begin to
dig and push a front/Piedmont trough eastward through midweek.
Looks like best convective activity Wed aftn will remain
aligned along or ahead of the trough to our west and north with
moisture and shortwave energy riding around the top of the
ridge to enhance it. Some of these storms may reach into the
local forecast area into Wed evening as mid to upper ridge
extending up from the south through the Southeast gets
suppressed farther south as trough digging down from the upper
Great Lakes moves eastward. Overall, expect less convective
coverage Wed with a warmer southerly return flow and temps near
90 most places. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid to upper ridge to the south will get suppressed farther
south as shortwave to the north pushes front/trough eastward in
deeper westerly flow. This should drive aftn convection and
debris clouds eastward through Thurs aftn which could affect
temps, but overall, a warm start to the day with temps in the
mid to upper 70s will reach around 90 or so. Heat index values
should remain below 105 degrees and therefore do not expect Heat
Advisory at this time.

Shortwave digs down and pushes front eastward. Looks like
front/trough will actually make it into the Eastern Carolinas
and models show it dropping through over the weekend with drier
high pressure building in for the latter half of the weekend
with northerly flow. GFS shows pcp water values up over 2 inches
through Fri but dropping to 1.5 inches or less over the weekend.
Temps will be near 90 most days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are causing intermittent
restrictions across the area, although the area is predominately
VFR. As showers and thunderstorms pulse up and down through the
afternoon, lower visibilities in heavy rain will be the primary
threat of IFR conditions. FLO is likely to see the most significant
restrictions at the start of the period. This mass of convection
will drift northward, then northeastward closer to evening. VFR
conditions are expected this evening after diurnal showers reach
their minimum.

Southerly winds near the coast will keep things VFR (possibly with
some MVFR stratus moving onshore) overnight. A few showers will also
be possible with this low stratus, but VFR should dominate. Calm
winds and saturated soils should produce at least patchy fog inland
overnight into Tuesday morning. Best chance of IFR will be at FLO,
but I have included IFR in the LBT TAF with this issuance. More
summer-like conditions return on Tuesday afternoon.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions to flight categories are expected
to continue into Monday due to either spotty afternoon convection or
low ceilings each nighttime/morning periods. More of the same is
possible into early next week with a return to more typical summer
weather starting Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Southerly flow becomes re-established behind
an inland moving coastal trough this evening. Winds remain light
and seas hover around 2 feet through the end of the forecast
period. Isolated showers and storms will increase each evening.

Tuesday night through Friday...
Expect SW return flow around high pressure east of the waters
from Tues night through Thu night, remaining around 5 to 10 kt
with a slight uptick Wed night. By Fri a front nears the Eastern
Carolinas and it should drop through the waters Fri night with
a wind shift to the NE for the weekend. Seas will remain in the
2 to 4 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ099-107>110.
SC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-054>056-058-
     059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ/LEW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21