958
FXUS62 KILM 031824
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
224 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain control into the
middle of the week. An approaching cold front will lead to
warming this weekend as the high moves offshore into Friday.
The front should move through into Sunday with increasing rain
chances. The front stalls offshore with high pressure behind
the front leading to cooler temperatures and low rain chances
near the coast into mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather continues overnight with lows again in the upper 50s and
lower 60s. Winds have become light today as the high retreats.
Boundary layer winds tonight will fall to less than 5 knots near the
coast and hover around 5-10 knots inland. This lack of low level
wind should allow for the production of fog near the coast on
Thursday morning. Dry soils mean that this will likely not be a
widespread issue, but low-lying wetlands, swamps, creeks, rivers,
and ponds should see some localized fog development. Near the coast,
high tide will expand any tidal creeks to their maximum width and we
could see some increased fog coverage near the coast. Southerly
winds increase on Thursday with a trough moving well north of our
area. Some mid and upper level clouds will be possible inland. Highs
a few degrees warmer with a little bit more humidity; mid and upper
80s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move offshore Thursday night ahead of a cold
front. SW flow will warm us ahead of said front, with highs
returning into the 90s and lows increasing from the mid to upper
60s. PWATs will hover around 1" with not enough forcing to produce
precip through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The aforementioned front should push through the area sometime
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highs will peak Saturday with
enhanced WAA ahead of it and still relatively cloud free skies, with
mid 90s possible. Deeper moisture will build in with PWATs becoming
>1", with Sunday introducing more cloud cover and the chance for
precip across the area. The front looks to stall offshore as high
pressure tries to build in behind it, squishing us between the
systems. This will result in a gradient in moisture with higher
PWATs near the coast and thus higher POPs in those areas. Breezy NE
winds and highs in the 70-80s will return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. Confidence in fog tonight is Low outside of water bodies and
low lying wetlands. The best chance appears to be near the coast
where boundary layer winds are lighter and dew point temperatures
are warmer. Near the coast, high tide is around daybreak on Thursday
morning, so tidal creeks should be near the maximum width.
Therefore, I have included the potential for MVFR VIS restrictions
at ILM and CRE with less confidence at CRE due to its proximity to
the coast. MYR typically avoids this fog potential due to the
location of the AWOS. Light winds with VFR expected on Thursday.

Extended Outlook... VFR. Rain chances return on Sunday ahead of a
cold front. A wedge of high pressure could bring periodic
restrictions early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Light onshore winds this evening will become
southerly on Thursday. With the weak gradient, expected winds to
remain 5-10 knots outside of the nearshore sea breeze circulation.
Seas calm at around 1-2 feet.

Thursday Night through Monday... High pressure will move
offshore ahead of a cold front moving through into Sunday.
Through Saturday light SW winds will become ~10 kts and onshore
in the afternoons with the sea breeze. The front will move
through Sunday morning before stalling offshore with winds
becoming NE. High pressure will then try to build in inland,
increasing the PG as we become sandwiched between the high and
the front with low pressure along it offshore. NE winds will
increase to ~20 kts Monday. Seas 2-3 ft will increase Sunday
night into Monday, with SCA conditions possible.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/LEW