848
FXUS62 KILM 191413
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1013 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure surface and aloft will result in continued dry
conditions and summer like temps through early next week.
High pressure aloft breaks down allowing for a frontal system
with increased rain chances to slowly approach and possibly
stall across the region during the mid to late week period of
next week. Temperatures will however remain unseasonably warm.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes with the 10 AM update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Yet another day of quiet weather to start the weekend.
Mid-level ridge shifts further offshore, yielding temps a few
degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs today will be in the mid to
upper 80s for most of the area, almost 10 degrees above normal,
with plenty of sunshine (upper 70s/low 80s across coastal
counties due to healthy sea breeze). Low temps tonight will be
around 60F as high clouds move in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cutoff upper low north of the Leeward islands will help keep
the mid-level ridge in place centered just off the SE States
Coast during this period. This means dry conditions with sfc
ridging from offshore to dominate the area with a daily sea
breeze developing and pushing inland each day. Subsidence aloft
will continue capping across the area. The sea breeze possibly
on Tue may see a stray shower/tshower along it if enough forcing
is achieved to break thru. Another issue is come Sun night into
early Mon, a backdoor dry cold front makes it into Northeast NC
(possibly to Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout) but lacks the push
to make it to the ILM CWA at this time given the position of the
upper ridge axis.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models in unison but at different speeds do lift the cutoff low,
N of the Leeward Islands, off to the northeast. This allows the
upper ridge axis to slide or shunted off to the SE Tue and Wed
and the FA comes under WSW to ENE flow aloft. This allows a sfc
frontal boundary to drop to the central Carolinas by Wed and
meandering to the FA at times as it becomes oriented parallel
with the flow aloft. Look for increasing chances of rain late
Tue thru the rest of the extended period. At this point, the
hiest chances will be Wed aftn and night due to the combination
of the meandering sfc front and a weak impulse embedded in the
WSW flow aloft. Guidance continues with above normal temps this
period, 1 to possibly 2 categories above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Few diurnal
cumulus clouds this afternoon around 5kft, with increasing high
clouds from the west tonight. Current southerly winds 5-10 kts
will increase a bit during the day with gusts of 15-18 kts.
Gusts may be a few knots stronger later this morning before
winds aloft weaken slightly. Boundary layer winds remain
elevated tonight hindering fog development.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR through the weekend.
Increasing rain chances could bring restrictions beginning
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions continue through
tonight with high pressure persisting offshore. 10-15 kt
southerly winds with seas 2-3 ft from S wind wave.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...Sfc ridge axis from offshore
will extend back to the U.S. mainland, south of the waters, thru
Wed. This means an extended play of SSW-SW winds across the
waters this period. Speeds generally around 10-15 kt, possibly
but only temporarily 15+ kt within 5 nm of the coast during the
active time of the sea breeze especially Sun thru Tue. Winds may
go E-SE Sun night into early Mon for the waters from Surf City
to Cape Fear, at the closest approach of the backdoor cold
front. Seas generally 1 to 3 ft, choppy nearshore during the
time of the daily sea breeze. Other then locally produced wind
waves, an underlying SE 1 to possibly 2 foot 7+ second period
wave will co-exist.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/VAO