365
FXUS62 KILM 221939
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
239 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain well below normal the next several
days with wind chill values near 10 degrees tonight. Clouds
return on Thursday with high temperatures only in the mid and
upper 30s. Near normal temperatures return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies and full sun this afternoon still has yet to bring
temperatures up to freezing for most of our forecast area. The only
exception is west of I-95 where snow accumulations were light.
Because of this, road conditions will continue to be dangerous or
worsen tonight when frigid temperatures return. Any melting that
occurred today will quickly refreeze after sunset. See the Special
Weather Statement currently in effect for more information.

Tonight`s low temperatures have been the focus of today`s forecast
challenge. A combination of light (but not calm) winds, snowpack,
and anticipated cloud cover create an interesting spread of
temperatures across the region by Thursday morning. A developing low
off the Cape Fear coast will initially spread clouds into the
coastal areas of southeastern NC with 850 mb warm advection
increasing.

Clouds associated with the surface low will likely impact the
immediate coast (generally east of US-701). Between US-701 and the
coast, lows will be limited by early evening radiation and light
winds before clouds increase between 12 AM and 2 AM. Due to the
observed snow cover, I have forecasted lows on the lower end of the
guidance envelope: mid teens.

Inland, cloud cover will increase from the west ahead of the
approaching trough. These clouds will arrive late tonight and should
allow areas with snow on the ground to radiate quite well. Expect
most areas to fall into the single digits before cirrus arrives.
West of I-95, lows will be a few degrees warmer where heavy snow
accumulations were not recorded. Expect lows in the lower teens.
Even with light winds, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect
tonight for wind chills and temperatures down to as low as 6 degrees.

Cloudy on Thursday beneath the approaching trough. Remaining cold
with temperatures only in the mid and upper 30s. Without widespread
sunshine, melting will continue to be slow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and cold through the period as high pressure builds in from the
west. Clouds will hold on through late Friday before we start to
clear out. Have accounted for some radiational cooling Friday night
after the clearing. Highs will warm a bit into Friday as we get more
sun but we`ll remain in the 40s. Lows will be near 20 with coldest
temperatures expected Friday night. A Cold Weather Advisory due to
wind chills may be possible if we get higher winds overnight but
they should be light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As the high slips offshore into early next week we could see an
increase in temperatures and rain chances as moisture recovers ahead
of another front. It`s uncertain if this front will clear the area
or wash out into mid next week, which will have an impact on how
longer the milder weather sticks around.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR with gusty winds this afternoon. Clouds increase overnight
as a weak area of low pressure develops offshore. Confidence is
low, but MVFR ceilings could return after 03Z at the coast.

Extended Outlook... Next chance of sub-VFR conditions will come
into Mon when a cold front moves through the Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... Breezy conditions continue today but will
gradually improve early this evening. Latest marine observations
indicate that seas are holding steady at 4-6 feet. This is expected
to improve late this afternoon and this evening as winds subside. A
developing low off the coast will maintain 10-15 knots winds just
offshore through Thursday with gusts to 20 knots.

Thursday Night through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through
the period as high pressure builds in from the west. The high will
move offshore into early next week with an increase in offshore
winds. Seas roughly 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/LEW