587
FXUS62 KILM 121001
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
601 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering front will lift north along with a deep upper low
moving slowly north from the Gulf States, maintaining wet
conditions across much of the Southeast with periods of
occasionally moderate to heavy rainfall into midweek. A drying
trend Wednesday night into Thursday will give way to hotter
temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Shwrs and iso tstms over SE NC will shift northward through this
morning as front lifts north. Adjusted pops up a bit for that
area. Forecast on track for a cloudy day with some shwrs or
tstms with occasional moderate to heavy rain. Aviation
discussion updated for this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A lingering boundary will lift north today as a warm front as a
deep upper low moves north from the Gulf coast. Winds to the
north of the boundary were more ENE early this morning while
south and east of the boundary were SE. Looks like best moisture
and lift will be in a axis from Florida and SE GA up into SC
lined up better with sfc front and flow around upper low.
Another axis of moisture will be associated with lift along
warm front just north of Cape Fear and across SE NC late this
morning. The pcp water values in this area will reach up to 1.8
inches while the rest of the area is closer to 1.6 inches. This
coincides with DESI probs for greater than 1 inch up to 30 to
40% over and north of Pender county late this morning where
shwrs and tstms will be likely. Otherwise pcp should remain
rather spotty over the local area into early this aftn.

As front lifts north, there looks like there may be a secondary
increase in convection mid to late afternoon into tonight as
increasing deeper southerly flow develops and better upper level
support. Have not issued any Flood Watch as the pcp comes in
waves and ground should be able to handle it with more isolated
heavier amounts. It`s not to say that a Flood Advisory will be
out of the question for localized heavier amounts, but thinking
widespread flash flooding will be unlikely with drier soils
overall. Better convective activity should come late today into
tonight as low pressure lifts north and cold front moves through
the eastern Carolinas. The diurnal range of temps will be less
with clouds and pcp today through tonight. Expect afternoon
highs to reach near 75 while overnight lows tonight should hold
in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
During this time period, the upper cutoff low, over TN/KY at
the start of this period, will be lifting northward and slowly
opening up into a negatively tilted trof pivoting/extending
across the FA by Wed morning. Although will have gotten dry
slotted Tue morning, still expect convective pcpn to fill in
across the FA Tue aftn/evening as portions of the colder air
aloft aid convective processes along with a continued moist
airmass. Kept low chance pops Tue overnight and then revamped
them up again Wed as the upper trof axis swings to and across
the FA. Model pivot the trof north of the FA during Wed night
as a s/w small amplitude upper ridge follows. With clouds and
pcpn, diurnal range of temps will be relatively on the low side
given this time of year. Overall, the best/hiest qpf will have
occurred prior to this fcst period, or actually ending Tue
morning just prior to the dry slot.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low amplitude upper ridging will dominate Thu thru Fri, with the
upper ridge axis off the SE States coast by Sat. However, flow
aloft to run from the WSW-W more-so straight from the Pacific as
a flattened but persistent upper high governs the Gulf. This
points to less Pops this period, isolated to scattered (may even
be a bit too much) at best each aftn/evening and likely relying
on the sea breeze. Look for warming temps Thu thru Sat, with
widespread 90s possible Fri and Sat away from the coast.
Subsidence inversion will help limit the convection Thu thru
Sat. Sfc cold front tries to sneak southward Sun which may allow
for an increase in Pops but given timeline, may just indicate
dry conditions at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Terminals fluctuating mainly between VFR and MVFR with pcp
increasing in shra/tsra mainly from ILM to LBT terminals this
morning. Expect occasional shra but should be brief MVFR to
IFR. Confidence is lower in terms of how long IFR ceilings will
last for inland terminals, but mainly possible in the early
morning hours inland. The best axis of heavier pcp should remain
just west of terminals into the morning hours, but have
included Prob30 for much of the period as spotty pcp will
persist. Chc of moderate to heavier showers with lower vsbys and
ceilings will be more likely after 14z for ILM and most likely
after 18 to 20z for the Myrtles and inland terminals.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in flight restrictions
Monday eve through Tuesday, with occasional shra/tsra.
Restrictions should continue into Wednesday (moderate
confidence), though the rain chances do back off a tad. Things
finally dry out by Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...ENE winds north of lingering front will come
around to a more SE and southerly flow today through tonight
increasing up to 15 to 20 kts with gusts reaching up to 25 kts
by this evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop
across the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to Little River,
SC at 11 AM EDT, mainly for seas up to 6 ft, and then from
Little River, SC to South Santee River, SC at 8 PM EDT for seas
to 6 ft and increasing gusts up to 25 kts. Persistent SE to
southerly winds will affect the waters through tonight as low
pressure and front affect the coastal Carolinas.

Tuesday through Friday...Seas and SE winds peak at the start of
this period, with SCA thresholds continuing from the end of the
previous period. The warm front lifts north of the area Tue
morning followed by the cold frontal passage late Tue
afternoon/evening. Winds to veer to the S once in the warm
sector and to the SW after the CFP. Wind speeds will flirt with
SCA thresholds during Tue but seas should remain SCA elevated
but then slowly subside to below SCA thresholds possibly as
early as Tue evening. The pinched gradient will be east and
north of the area waters come Tue Night. Overall, looking at
windspeeds diminishing to below SCA thresholds later Tue and
further Tue night. By Wed thru Fri, looking at SW winds 5 to 15
kt, with the hier speeds nearshore each aftn/evening due to the
sea breeze mechanics. The SE 7 to 9 second period swell will
dominate pretty much for the upcoming week. Will peak Tue
followed by a slow subsiding trend for the remainder of the
period. SSW-SW wind chop may become more dominant by the end of
the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...DCH/RGZ