120
FXUS62 KILM 070904
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
404 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther off the East Coast over the
next few days allowing for continued above normal temperatures.
Upper level disturbances and abundant moisture will and
increased rain chances into Thursday. A cold front should push
south through the area later Friday bringing a bit cooler and
drier conditions for the weekend before the high shifts offshore
and another cold front approaches Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today features a decent swath of UVVs via jet divergence aloft,
subtropical gulf moisture streaming northeastward along with
embedded mid-level s/w trofs/impulses pushing across the FA. All
this combined will result in best chances of accumulating rains
across the ILM SC CWA (away from the coast) to a lesser chance
across the NE portions of the FA which is the ILM NC CWA. The
flow aloft becomes more westerly later this aftn and tonight,
whereby shunting the deep moisture southward. Will still have
plenty of low level moisture this aftn and tonight, with weak
mid level impulse(s) still in the neighborhood. Pop chances will
be scaled back this aftn and to slight chance later this
evening and overnight given a sfc cold front sagging southward
that should reach the FA by the end of this period or soon
there-after. Today thru tonights temps will likely only see a
range of 10-14 degree diurnal range, with generally 70s for
todays highs and 60s for tonights lows. May have to deal with a
bout of dense fog and/or low stratus clouds tonight with plenty
of low level moisture on tap and lack of any drying during today
after the main pcpn shield.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level forcing and deep moisture bringing the rainfall
to the area today will be on the decline Friday with only slight
chance residual pops. The surface pattern somewhat poorly
defined Friday will acquire better definition by Saturday as a
cold front moves across. With dry conditions temperatures
although cooler than the near or actual record breaking recent
values will remain somewhat elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Marginal pops remain in the forecast for late Sunday into
Monday as a system moves across from the west. Beyond this
nothing really significant until a possible moisture challenged
system late as the dry pattern marches onward. Temperatures will
remain somewhat above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At the start of this 24 hr period, mainly VFR at the coastal
terminals with occasional MVFR ceilings and reduced vsby from
BR. Decent confidence for MVFR/IFR conditions inland terminals
with more continuous shower activity at FLO and periodic at LBT.
Ceilings will drop to dominate MVFR/IFR and possibly LIFR
inland terminals leading up to daybreak and beyond. Conditions
will slowly improve to dominate MVFR and eventually VFR during
daytime Thursday, but PROB30 chances for rain will continue into
the aftn and evening.

Extended Outlook...There is moderate to high potential for
occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in showers and
isolated tstorms late Thu night thru Fri. Otherwise, VFR will
dominate Sat/Sun before additional restrictions possible late
Sun into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Will continue with a relaxed sfc pg with
winds speeds aob 10 kt thru the period. Determining the wind
directions a bit tricky. Sfc high pressure centered offshore
from the Carolinas, will ridge westward to the NC-SC border.
Thus, looking at a S-SW wind direction NC waters today and E-SE
for the SC Waters today. Sfc cold front will be dropping
southward tonight and on the doorsteps of the local waters by
daybreak Fri. For tonight, NC Waters wind directions becoming
W-NW thu the night, for SC Waters, wind directions mainly
Easterly. Seas will generally start at their peak for this
period and only drop by a foot, possibly 2, tonight. Seas will
be governed by a SE swell running at 8 to 9 second periods.

Friday through Monday Night...Very light wind fields Friday
officially from the north will transition to a better defined
NE flow for the weekend. Still not anticipating any headlines
with the strongest of winds in a range of 15-20 knots Saturday
afternoon. After this the usual progression to an onshore to
eventual southwest flow will develop into the late weekend as a
system moves across around Monday. Significant seas will be 2-4
feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK