520
FXUS62 KILM 150905
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
405 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will strengthen east of Cape Hatteras today then
track further offshore tonight into Saturday. Dry weather
returns today with low clouds eventually dissipating. Dry and
cool high pressure will settle across the area this weekend
before sliding off the coast early next week. Temperatures near
normal this weekend will climb back above normal next week. A
cold front may bring rain chances to the area late Wed into
Thu.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5h Closed low dropping southeast, will capture the sfc low off
Cape Hatteras this morning, resulting in its continued
intensification to sub 1000 mb. The 2 features will track E to
ESE as it is blocked from pushing northeast from an expansive
cutoff low. The low clouds, with spotty light drizzle across
southeast NC, will improve from southwest to northeast across
the Bi-State region thru the morning, with the majority of the
region seeing sunshine by mid-afternoon. Subsidence and blustery
NW winds will help scour out the low level moisture, especially
from midday onward. Guidance, being optimistic, insists on
temps breaking into the low to mid 60s for todays highs which is
near normal. The FA becomes under the influence of progressive
ridging aloft from the west with sfc high pressure ridging
southeast across the area from the Ohio River Valley. The sfc pg
stays semi-tightened tonight, keeping winds active enough to
prevent any rad cooling conditions to occur eventhough skies
will be clear. Thus lows will run generally in the low to mid
40s across the FA which is also near the norm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With a mid level ridge axis to our west and surface high to
our north the weather will be quiet and seasonable Saturday and
Saturday night to within just a few degrees of climatology.
About the only change heading into Sunday is that the surface
ridge expands its center into the Carolinas. This doesn`t lead
to warm advection, but in shutting down the weak cold advection
that was present on Saturday we will see temperatures nudged
upwards by 3-4 degrees by both day and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Back to a theme that has been common lately for the start of
the long term and that is unseasonable warmth. And while
temperatures will run above normal we won`t see any of the 80s
that we`ve seen recently and dewpoints will not get as high
either. The first few days of the work week will bring highs in
the mid 70s and lows that grow milder especially after Monday as
this is when the high moves more decidedly offshore. Changes to
appear to be coming by the end of the period or soon
thereafter. The timing is going to be uncertain for a few days
though if I had to guess. A slow moving cutoff upper low in the
SW U.S. lifts northeastward while partially phasing in with a
strong jet digging into the Pac NW. Faster solutions could have
moisture ahead of what could wind up being a strong cold front
as early as Wednesday but with the downstream ridging here a
slower sense of timing seems a good bet. Also of note that the
late week system could produce thunderstorms that given the
projected wind fields, could be strong.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR to dominate across all terminals generally between 06Z and
13z. As subsidence and drier air work their way across the
area, look for ceiling improvements across FLO/CRE/MYR by 16Z
and 19Z for LBT/ILM with VFR dominating. Will see gusty NW to N
winds in the wake of the deepening low off Cape Hatteras, that
will pull further away from the Carolinas thru tonight. Winds
will drop below 10 kt by sunset today and aob 5 kt late this
evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate through the period as high
pressure settles across the area this weekend, sliding offshore
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Today, the area waters will be under the influence of the
tightened sfc pg associated with the deepening sfc low ESE of
Cape Hatteras this morning, that will track E-ESE, slowly at
1st as it gets captured by the 5H closed low dropping SE off
the U.S. mainland thru midday. Expect Gale conditions Cape Fear
northward and strong SCA conditions south of the Cape to S.
Santee River. This afternoon, the captured low begins to
accelerate further away from the U.S. mainland and as a result
the tightened sfc pg producing the aforementioned conditions
will begin to relax-some.

By this evening, the now 990ish sfc low will be near latitude
32.91N longitude 70.45W. The local waters will become more
under the influence of sfc high pressure centered over the Ohio
River Valley dropping down from the NW. The sfc pg will remain
tightened thru the night, producing NNW-N winds at SCA
thresholds, mainly in SCA gusts toward the end of this period,
across all waters.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...Northerly winds and easterly
swell Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds from the north
and strong low continues to move east well offshore. By Sunday
night we should start seeing winds turn more offshore as the
center of the high moves off the coast. With the center of the
high remaining so close by the latter part of the period will
have very light winds allowing seas to settle to just 2 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The full moon accompanied with high astronomical tides will
have the potential to produce minor coastal flooding during
both high tide cycles for the next several days across the
immediate coasts of Southeast NC and Northeast SC. The morning
high tide will exhibit the higher departures of the 2/day.
In addition, the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington south,
will also observe a threat for minor coastal flooding during
both high tide cycles each day through the weekend. The highest
water levels (close to moderate flood thresholds) are expected
with the high tide late Sat morning.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ250.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this afternoon
     for AMZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH