560
FXUS62 KILM 281723
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1223 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Gulf Coast will provide sunny and dry
weather today. A quick rebound in temperatures is expected on
Saturday ahead of a dry cold front moving through Saturday
night. High pressure will bring colder weather early next week,
followed by another warm up and chance of showers or
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
A subtle surface ridge axis extending from north of Gulf Coast
high pressure will sweep east across the Carolinas today. Light
northwesterly winds this morning should back to the southwest
this afternoon as the ridge shoots offshore. The atmospheric
column remains bone dry and aside from a shred or two of cirrus
no clouds are anticipated today.

A fairly impressive seabreeze circulation should develop early
this afternoon as inland temperatures poke toward 70 but air
temps over the water remain in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds
should appear at the beaches around 1 PM and the cooler marine
airmass should sweep 10-20 miles inland by 5 PM. In addition to
temperature differences, there may be a substantial dewpoint
and relative humidity difference on either side of the seabreeze
front with inland dewpoints remaining in the 20s throughout the
day. Any controlled burns ongoing near the coast this afternoon
should plan for a wind shift as this seabreeze front moves
overhead.

No substantial changes were needed with any forecast elements
during this morning update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave that drove the cold front across the area late Thu evening
has pushed offshore, setting up a brief period of deep northwest
flow. The mid-level pattern quickly reverts back to zonal flow,
later this morning, ending any brief cold advection and ensuring a
steady stream of dry air. May see a few gusts to 20 mph around peak
heating across North Carolina, but winds aloft are much weaker than
on Thu. There remains a large amount of dry air just above the top
of the mixed layer. So expect another day with afternoon humidity
well under 30%. Expect to see some areas dipping into the teens.
Afternoon temperatures will be cooler than Thu, but highs will still
come in above normal.

Despite clear skies and a very dry air mass lows tonight will end up
above to well above climo, mainly due to enhanced southerly flow.
Deep westerly flow along the Gulf coast keeps the moisture feed shut
off, so no real increase in moisture tonight despite the low level
south to southwest flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm southwest flow will be in place Saturday ahead
of a strong but dry cold front that will move across the area
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Conditions...that being RH`s and
winds look similar to today so there may be some increasing fire
weather concerns. Outside of this temperatures remain basically the
same as the previous forecast most notably Sunday`s highs only
reaching the lower 50s and that may be a struggle points northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Trends remain in place for the extended period with
those being cool and dry early on...Monday and Tuesday with a strong
cold front/system moving across midweek more definitively later
Wednesday into early Thursday followed by a decent cool down very
typical of early March weather. Probably a little early to
interrogate severe weather possibility in detail but SPC likes it and
will follow closely...that is for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence VFR conditions will continue over the coming 24
hours. Dry air should preclude ground fog issues tonight.
Southwest winds should increase to near 15G25KT after 15z
Saturday.

Extended Outlook...High confidence for VFR conditions through
Tuesday. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front may yield
scattered convective showers or thunderstorms with associated
flight category restrictions on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Conditions will gradually improve during the next
few hours now that the cold front has pushed east of the
waters. Seas taking a little longer to drop below Small Craft
Advisory thresholds so went ahead and extended the SC waters
portion of the headline through 4AM EST, matching up with the NC
headline. Offshore flow will gradually decrease this morning
with flow becoming southwest around midday and the gradually
increase later today into tonight as the surface gradient once
again becomes more defined. Not expecting winds much above 15 kt
through tonight. Seas will follow a trend similar to winds,
falling for much of the day before starting to build later this
evening and overnight. Today`s northwest wind wave will
disappear this evening, in favor of a southerly wind wave. A
southeast swell will persist through tonight.

Saturday through Tuesday...Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will be
in place Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. There could be
a marginal small craft advisory that develops but the latest
guidance/forecast remains somewhat stable. The remainder of the
period will feature the common pattern of a northerly flow
(Sunday) eventually shifting to a return flow by the middle part
of next week. No headlines should be needed beyond Saturday
although sea fog could be discussed for the end of the period
but way too early for that.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/SHK