277
FXUS62 KILM 061255
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
855 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected
through Monday as high pressure dominates. A cold front should
move through Monday night with a few showers possible before
high pressure brings cooler and drier weather for most of the
week. Breezy conditions and hazardous marine and surf conditions
possible mid week as tropical cyclone Milton likely brushes the
area. Cooler and drier weather then on tap late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Lingering fog is gradually dissipating across the area this
morning. Updated weather to account for the ending patchy fog.
No additional updates with the 9 AM EDT update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will remain situated across the area
through the near term forecast period. Satellite imagery shows some
mid level moisture may wobble into the area from time to time but
overall should be a nice Sunday. Highs today will be a little closer
to 80 than the middle 80s with Monday AM lows around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant impacts expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Surface high pressure will shift through the area and
offshore ahead of a cold front which should push through later Monday
and Monday night. Moisture and forcing appear limited so rain
chances/amounts should be as well. Dry high pressure will likely be
returning from the northwest by daybreak Tuesday, although a few
showers could linger near the coast. Northeast winds will then
be on the upswing Tue night, especially near the coast, as the
pressure gradient tightens due to tropical cyclone Milton
approaching FL. Temperatures should be above normal through
Monday night before falling below normal Tuesday/Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:
*Watching the tropics but no significant direct impacts are
 likely at this time
*Very low rain chances (mainly near the coast) and below normal
temps likely

Confidence:
*Moderate through Thu night
*Moderate to High Fri/Sat

Details: Surface high pressure centered to the northwest should
build southeast and help keep tropical cyclone Milton far enough off
to the south and southeast of the area through Friday to not bring
significant direct impacts to SE NC and NE SC. However, the
resulting pressure gradient should lead to breezy conditions,
especially near the coast. Some showers should also skirt the coast
with surf conditions becoming quite hazardous. Cooler and drier air
will then move in behind the departing storm late in the week and we
could see our first widespread temps in the 40s this season.

To get the latest on the tropics, including preparedness info, visit
our tropical page at: weather.gov/ilm/tropical.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR in place in Florence while LBT has fared somewhat better.
VFR should return to all areas in just an hour or two Probably
another threat for restrictions this tome Monday once again
focused inland.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail under high pressure, except
sub-VFR possible in early morning fog or stratus Mon. Next cold
frontal passage slated late Mon. VFR should return outside of
low shower chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds of 10-15 knots...looks like on the higher side
this morning will continue today. What little gradient there is
weakens tonight as the flow acquires a bit of an easterly
component as well. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with a
decent long period swell in the spectrum.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will be moving offshore
ahead of a passing cold front Mon night. High pressure will then
return from the northwest while tropical cyclone Milton likely
passes off to the south and southeast Wed night/Thu. Although there
is still some uncertainty regarding the track of Milton we do not
anticipate direct significant effects across the local coastal
waters. However, the tight pressure gradient will still make for
hazardous marine conditions starting Tue night and Small Craft
Advisories will be needed at the very least with Gale Warnings or
even TS Warnings possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue along the Lower
Cape Fear River at least through early week due to the high
astronomical tides associated with the new moon, especially
during the daytime high tides. Coastal flooding could linger
much of the week as tropical cyclone Milton likely brushes the
area.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk being advertised today for
all but the Brunswick beaches where a moderate risk is expected due
to 14+ second period swells from distant Hurricane Kirk. A high
rip risk will likely continue at least north of Cape Fear Mon
with an elevated risk likely persisting for at least east-facing
beaches through at least mid week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM