510
FXUS62 KILM 080217
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
917 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary frontal boundary over the area today into tonight
slides northwards on Saturday, allowing for one last day of
unseasonable warmth on Sunday. A strong cold front pushing through
late Sunday will bring cooler weather early next week. Multiple
waves along the front will lead to a prolonged period of rain
chances through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The latest update basically centers on an increase in pops
somewhat across the board but a little more specific in points
northwest and southern mos points. The forcing appears to be
over performing. No other changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front strung across the region running close to the NC/SC
border. Very dry air north of the front will bleed into the area
in northerly flow through this evening bringing dewpoints down
into the 40s while to the south, values will remain around 60 in
southerly flow. Increasing NE winds just above the sfc with
westerly flow above will help to produce some lift and soundings
along and south of the front show some elevated instability and
moisture. This will be aided by a minor perturbation in the very
zonal flow aloft along with a weak sfc low. Therefore expect
some weak shower activity tonight into early Sat morning. Also
expect some fog in moist air mass to the east and south of
front where dewpoints remain closer to 60.

By Sat aftn, the front will return north with southerly winds
bringing warm and moist air northward again. This will help
break up the clouds and push any pcp north with front. Temps
will warm with increasing sunshine through the aftn from south
to north. Temps overnight tonight will drop to near 50 along the
northern tier, but south of the front will remain in the mid
50s. Highs tomorrow will warm into the mid 70s in SC but in the
inland NC, temps will only reach the mid 60s. The only impact
on the weather once the front moves north, will be the potential
for sea fog. The southerly warm and moist flow over the cooler
shelf waters will help to produce some sea fog into late
Saturday. May see the coast impacted by some of this sea fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather for Saturday night as the local area sits in the
warm sector following the frontal boundary sliding to the north.
Under deep SW flow, winds will gust up to 20 mph, with the
strongest portion of the LLJ inland. Temps only expected to
bottom out in the 55-60 degree range with a partly cloudy sky.
The next cold front approaches from the NW Sunday, but not
before midday/early aftn temps have the opportunity to reach
near records highs (see Climate section below). Showers are
possible with the front, but with limited moisture content in
vertical profiles have kept PoPs capped at 30%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term period remains a low confidence forecast overall. This due
to the aforementioned frontal boundary positioning in the vicinity
early to mid week, with waves of low pressure periodically forming
along the front, enhancing rain chances at times. Aloft, flow
remains fairly zonal so there`s not a lot of push to get this front
back north of the area. Result is frequent moderate chances for
rain, mainly in the 30-60% range but at times higher, and will
narrow down the timing better in future updates. Primarily
forecasting stratiform rain not showers, with QPF amounts not all
that impressive. Temps similarly tricky due to the presence of the
front, but after a cool Monday when the CAD wedge is at its
strongest, there`s a good chance that temps will be near or above
normal for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions reside across the area this evening. As a back
door cold front continues to slip south across the region some
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop. Some showers now
developing just to the west of Williamsburg County should
increase in coverage further setting the stage for MVFR along
the South Carolina coast.

Extended Outlook...VFR/MVFR Saturday becoming MVFR with
possible IFR later on Saturday and Sunday along the coast as
potential for sea fog develops as winds shift around to the
south. Confidence in sea fog remains low. Restrictions may
return with increasing rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...A weak cold front stalled over the region will
get pushed south tonight with winds shifting around to the
N-NE behind it. A weak sea breeze along the coast held the front
inland with onshore flow but after getting pushed south through
the waters tonight and stalling, it will move back north as a
warm front on Saturday with southerly winds returning.

Light southerly flow over the waters has turned onshore in weak
sea breeze this afternoon and will become variable this evening
before getting a push south in increasing northerly flow as high
pressure passes by to the north. This front will end up moving
back north on Saturday leaving southerly winds across the waters
once again. This will lead the way to potential for some sea fog
Sat into Sat night. Overall, Winds will become NE tonight up to
10 to 15 kts before coming back around to the S on Sat into Sat
night with gusts up to 25 kts. Seas will remain between 2 to 4
ft.

Saturday night through Wednesday...
A frontal boundary slides north of the area late Saturday into
Saturday night, followed by increasing SW flow up to 15-20 kt
but just shy of SCA criteria. Cold front drops though the waters
late Sunday, shifting winds to the NE. As the pressure gradient
tightens late Sunday night, SCA conditions are possible for
both winds and seas, lasting until potentially Monday night.
Slowly improving marine conditions thereafter for Tuesday and
Wednesday as the CAD weakens.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures will be challenged at some sites on Sunday,
February 9th...

Site.....................Forecast.....Record
Wilmington, NC.............76F.......77F(1994,1921)
Lumberton, NC..............76F.......79F(1925)
North Myrtle Beach, SC.....73F.......74F(1999)
Florence, SC...............78F.......79F(1999)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/RGZ
CLIMATE...