Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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557 FXUS62 KILM 010046 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 846 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through Monday bringing a reprieve from the heat and humidity into mid week. Excessive heat is likely to return again though late in the week. && .UPDATE... Lowered POPs this evening due to limited activity over the area. Updated aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Pre frontal trough lighting up this afternoon just to the northwest poised to move into the area in the next little bit as more sporadic convection is slowly developing elsewhere. This line will struggle in time as it presses south with less than conducive conditions aloft but eventually will make it through. The severe potential not overly impressive with little shear in place and the instability of course wanes in time as well. A second line/area of convection will move across early Monday AM with the actual front and press south. Its worth noting the higher pops overall tonight represent the possibility convection fills in somewhat between two expected pushes. The NPW/Heat Advisory will continue but may need to be cancelled early with any sustained areas of convection with its heavy lifting already accomplished. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Unseasonably cooler and drier through the period Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A rather unseasonably cooler and drier air mass is expected to prevail through the period as high pressure builds in from the north behind a departing cold front to the south. No major changes were made to the previous forecast but we did trend dewpoints down a tad with 50s likely inland, which will certainly be a nice reprieve from the recent mugginess. We`re still carrying some rain chances Monday night, mainly near the coast, and then along the SC coast Tue/Tue night where moisture convergence will be greatest. Temps should stay below normal through the period with highs mostly in the mid 80s Tuesday and lows mainly in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: *Excessive heat/humidity returns late week Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: High pressure at the surface will shift off the eastern seaboard Wednesday with a cold front possibly approaching Sunday. Meanwhile ridging should also prevail aloft. This pattern suggests high temps and near to below normal rain chances most of the period. Heat indices of 105+ degrees are possible inland starting Thursday but more likely across the entire area starting Friday. Thus, Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will be pretty likely Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Activity has come to a lull for now with scattered low clouds and broken high clouds. Still expecting another round of showers within the next couple hours possibly affecting KLBT/KFLO. Otherwise majority of the rain/storms should return by morning with the cold frontal passage, winds flipping around to the NE through Monday morning. With this frontal activity expect MVFR/IFR CIGS with brief VSBY restrictions in stronger storms. By the end of the TAF period activity should have shifted to the coast. Extended Outlook...Depending on how far south the front reaches, brief MVFR cig or vis flight restrictions may occur well into Monday night for the coastal terminals. Otherwise, VFR should dominate through the end of the week. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots perhaps wobbling a knot or two above will develop and or persist tonight ahead of the front. Winds will shift to northeast during the day Monday and increase ending up around 15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet throughout the period. Monday night through Friday...A cold front will move through the central Carolina nearshore waters Monday with high pressure building from the north through Wednesday. The high will then shift farther east bringing a return of more typical summertime winds from the south. Winds and possibly even seas could reach marginal Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night/early Tuesday behind the departing cold front as high pressure builds in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Although there has been isolated heavy rainfall in spots over the past few days, the current U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought (D1) exists across portions of eastern North and South Carolina. This drought has developed due to 60 day rainfall totals running well below normal plus recent hot, dry weather. Fortunately, widespread soaking rain appears possible tonight with 1 to 2 inches generally forecast. Hot and mostly dry weather should then redevelop late in the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...LEW NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...RJB/SHK FIRE WEATHER...