199
FXUS62 KILM 022356
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
756 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring elevated shower and
thunderstorm chances and slightly cooler temperatures through
Thursday. The weakening front will then slowly move offshore by
Friday. Rain chances increase early next week as weak low
pressure develops along the front. More typical summer time
weather returns for the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Scattered storms continue, with two main areas having received
2-4" of rain so far today: a strip from Dillon to northern
Columbus counties, and another strip from central Horry into
southern Columbus. Radar estimates show 5+ inches of rain might
have fallen near Evergreen, NC. Other parts of the CWA has seen
either up to 2" of rain or none at all. Showers and storms will
continue to impact the area through around midnight, and will be
keeping an eye on the above areas that have already seen heavy
rain today.

Patchy fog inland seems like a sure bet tonight, and can`t rule
out potential for dense fog as clouds clear and winds go calm
especially given today`s rainfall. 0z aviation discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convection readily developing this afternoon under a very moist
but not necessarily that unstable of an airmass. With
relatively low shear and instability values little to no severe
weather is expected. While the activity is a little more coastal
centric or I-95 eastward right now...some activity may develop
or wander into the western areas in the next few hours.
Convection may linger well into the evening hours as well. There
should be a lull Thursday morning then with the actual front
associated with the synoptic system convection will redevelop
Thursday midday or so more concentrated east. Lows tonight will
approach the lower 70s with Thurswday`s highs in the upper 80s
to near 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Relatively dry for the 4th holiday with the local area between
a 5h ridge over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and a 5h low dropping
into New England. The resulting northwest flow can sometimes be
a troublemaker when it comes to the Carolinas, in the form of
strong to severe storms. However, this does not appear to be the
case for this event. Mid-level subsidence and an abundance of
dry air, both thanks to the 5h ridge, will keep rain chances
very limited. Only real chance would be along the coast where
the sea breeze and remains of a stalled front might be able to
kick off a few isolated showers during peak heating.
Temperatures will run a little above normal with highs in the
low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high building down the coast this weekend pushes the
remains of the weak front off the coast for the weekend. Ill-
defined surface and mid-level pattern with some bagginess aloft
resulting in very weak steering flow. This will allow for slow
development of a surface low somewhere along the front on Sat.
The low meanders off the Southeast coast Sun with a surface high
to the north limiting its movement. The center of the high
slips offshore later Sun or Sun night which opens the door for
this feature to start gaining some latitude. All indications are
the low will remain weak but possesses plenty of tropical
moisture. Precipitable water surges to 2.4 inches Sun into Mon.
Several factors are in place supportive of heavy rainfall
potential. Storm motion is on the high end of favored numbers,
around 10 mph, but the deep warm cloud layer will ensure storms
are efficient rainfall producers. Hard to say at this point what
areas will have the potential for the heaviest rain given all
the uncertainty with respect to the low, but it is something to
watch.

More typical summer pattern returns Tue/Wed with a broad, but
weak 5h ridge over the southern states. Piedmont trough sets up
with the Bermuda High being displaced slightly by the exiting 5h
trough/surface low. No signs of dynamic forcing Tue/Wed, but
plenty of moisture, surface based instability and the sea
breeze/trough. Expect to see shower and thunderstorm coverage
more typical of summer.

Highs near to slightly below normal for the first half of the
period with cloud cover and increased rain chances Sun/Mon
keeping highs under 90 in most areas, especially Sun. Low to mid
90s return Tue/Wed. Lows will run above normal through the
period, warmest toward the end of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to impact the area
through 3- 4z, with variable vsbys due to heavy rain rates. As
the showers and skies clear, fog potential increases inland as
winds go calm and ground is saturated from today`s rain. Have
included 2SM vsby at FLO and LBT overnight into early Thursday
morning, but there is potential for lower vsbys especially for
LBT. Moderate confidence lingering winds at coastal terminals
will maintain VFR conditions through morning. MVFR ceilings will
be possible at coastal terminals starting 13-15z due to diurnal
cumulus deck around 2500ft. Scattered storms are forecasted to
develop along the sea breeze Thursday afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Expect possible flight restrictions Thursday
through early Fri from scattered convection. Convection more
isolated this weekend into next week with VFR dominating.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue through the
overnight hours ahead of a cold front to the west. The front
and a weak wind shift will push across early Thursday morning
but then become slightly distorted by the sea breeze in the
afternoon hours. Significant seas will show a subtle downward
trend basically from 2- 4 feet to 2-3 feet.

Thursday Night through Monday...
Other than a brief period where a weak low may develop along a
stalled front winds across the waters will be limited. Weak
gradient into Fri starts to tighten up later Fri or Fri night as
the low starts to organize. The gradient between the high
building down the coast and the weak low could lead to east-
northeast flow 15-20 kt late Fri. Speeds remain elevated into
Sun morning before the gradient starts to relax and winds
decrease. Winds will be enhanced long enough to push seas close
to 6 ft in some areas later Sat night into Sun. Otherwise seas
will run 3-4 ft. Seas will be a mix of a south to southeast
swell and an east to southeast wind wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/SHK