Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
120 FXUS62 KILM 101108 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 708 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers increase on Sunday as a coastal trough moves inland. Showers and unsettled weather continue through Monday. More typical summertime weather should return into early next week. Temperatures below to near normal will warmup into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Coastal trough near the SC coastline will be the main feature of today`s and tonight`s forecast. Coastal trough slowly moving westward combined with PWATs over 2" (near 2.3" along the coast will produce scattered showers for most of today and tonight, focused along the coast this morning before spreading inland by this afternoon. Not expecting a washout, and most areas will likely have more dry time than not, but there is potential for training showers with moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated flooding is possible. Greatest risk of flooding will be Georgetown county, where a Flood Watch is currently in effect, and the Grand Strand, particularly through this morning but showers later will add on. Thunder chances overall look quite low due to cloudy skies due to trough and lingering wedge inland that looks to finally start breaking down later today. Highs today in the low 80s due to clouds and showers, with lows tonight in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Although high pressure to the north becomes more spread out from west to east to our north it will continue to ridge into the Carolinas as a trough remains quite prominent along the coast from the south. In the mid to upper levels, H5 low will track farther off the New England coast as ridge builds in from the east. Lingering shortwave energy along the coast on Mon will finally shift eastward Mon night into Tues as H5 trough axis shifts eastward with best forcing to the east by Tues. Mid to upper ridge begins to build up from the south into midweek with Atlantic high beginning to dominate with a a more typical S-SW return flow for this time of year. Overall, expect enhanced convective activity on Mon, especially along and just off the coast. By Tues, expect more localized and more limited convection, although pcp water values will change by about a quarter of an inch from Mon to Tues. Highs Monday will be below normal once again, in the lower 80s, but by Tues most places will reach into the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A more typical summertime pattern will exist midweek in return flow around High off to the east. Mid to upper ridge extending up from the south Wed will get suppressed farther south and west Thurs as shortwave energy rides over the top across the Carolinas in a W to NW flow. A cold front should reach as far south as VA and perhaps into NC on Thurs with pooling of moisture ahead of it. The W-NW steering flow should push storms toward the coast. May see drier high pressure extending south into the area by next weekend. Overall, not a clear cut forecast but generally a more normal summertime pattern setting up. With that, will come warmer temps reaching back up above normal with mainly afternoon convection. Temps should be back up toward 90 or above mid to late week with heat index values topping 100 in many spots, but as of now, should fall short of any Heat Advisory thresholds. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Coastal trough off the SC coast will slowly move westward today into tonight, leading to scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and increasing clouds. Outside of coastal NE SC (including GGE and MYR), most of the area is currently VFR. Lower (MVFR) ceilings will spread across the area through midday. Confidence is lowest for inland SE NC terminals (including LBT) and highest for coastal NE SC (MYR and CRE) for persisting MVFR conditions through sunset. Scattered showers will increase in coverage expanding inland towards this afternoon. Will see periodic low visibility restrictions in heavy rainfall given high PWAT environment. Low stratus and patchy fog is forecasted to develop inland tonight, with lower confidence at coastal terminals tonight. Winds predominantly out of the east around 10 kts today. Extended Outlook...Restrictions to flight categories are expected to continue into Monday due to either spotty afternoon convection or low ceilings each nighttime/morning periods. More of the same is possible into early next week with a return to more typical summer weather into midweek. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Coastal trough currently near the SC coastline will slowly drift westward today into tonight, veering 10-15 kt ENE winds today to SE tonight. Scattered showers with isolated thunder is forecasted across the local coastal waters today and tonight. A few storms earlier this morning had some rotation on radar and may have produced waterspouts. Threat for waterspouts will linger through morning, with lower risk into the afternoon. Seas 3-4 ft through tonight, with a SE wind wave joining the persistent ENE swell tonight. Monday through Thursday...Onshore, E to SE flow on Mon should come around to a more normal S to SW flow Tues onward, remaining around 5 to 10 kts with some gusts up to 15 kts. Initially seas will be closer to 2 to 3 ft but will drop slightly to 1 to 2 ft through midweek. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ055-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...VAO MARINE...RGZ/VAO