Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1100 AM CDT Thu Feb 27 2025

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...The chances for river flooding over central, south central, and
southeast Kansas have a near normal risk of flooding this Spring....

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from February 27th through March 12th, 2025.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt, is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

Recent Conditions:

A warmer and drier trend has been occurring over the past several
days which has melted the snowpack across the HSA. This winter was
marked by above average snowfall across the area.

Despite the above normal snowfall, overall precipitation remains
below average for the winter season with central Kansas running about
an inch below average while southeast Kansas is around two inches
below normal which equates to 50-75 percent of normal.

Soils are currently unfrozen across the HSA thanks to the warm period
over the last several days with no extremely cold temperatures
expected the first week of March.

Mean temperatures during the last three months have generally been
below normal with central Kansas being up to five degrees below
average while the rest of the HSA was generally one to three degrees
below average.

Soil moisture across central Kansas is near to slightly below normal
while southeastern Kansas is below normal. NASA SPoRT LIS data
indicates soil moistures are currently between the 10th and 70th
percentile over the area.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued the 27th of February 2025,
shows a large swath of normal to abnormally dry conditions across the
HSA. Moderate drought (D1) is beginning to expand across far south
central and southeastern Kansas. (http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map
shows streams across most of the HSA as being below to near normal. A
few sites along the Arkansas river between Wichita and Hutchinson was
reporting much below normal conditions.
(http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)

The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoir storage is near
normal except for Cheney Lake which continues to run below normal.
Reservoirs currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control
storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall events.

Future Conditions:

There are several chances for rain during the week of March 2nd which
may bring beneficial moisture to the region.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 day Outlook for the period
March 6th through 12th shows a slight favoring of above normal
temperatures across the entire state of Kansas while slightly
favoring near normal precipitation across all but southern Kansas
where below average precipitation is slightly favored.

The CPC 3 Month Outlook for March-April-May shows equal chances of
above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas.
Precipitation chances are slightly favored to be below average during
this time period across the western and central Kansas with equal
chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation across eastern
Kansas.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of May 2025,
indicates no changes in drought conditions are expected.
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/26/2025 - 05/27/2025

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :  10    7    5    6   <5   <5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :  13   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :  14   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  22   14   10    6   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  33   21    7    5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :   6   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  37   20   27    6   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :  17   18   11   12   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :  14   13    6    7   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :  14   12    8    6    5   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :  14   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  28   10    6   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :  11    7    6   <5   <5   <5
:Slate Creek
Wellington          19.0   22.0   23.5 :  46   36   25   13    6   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  20   13    9    8   <5   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :   9    8    6    5   <5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :  13   12   11   10    9   <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  10    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  24   24   15   14    5    5
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :   8    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  34   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  21   29    5    8   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  20   21    5    6   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  22   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :  12   25    5    6   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  29   20    7   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :  32   27   20   18   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :  26   26    9    7   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  23   30   <5    8   <5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  33   40   14   20   <5    5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  33   38   22   27   12   15
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  46   51   33   40   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  44   46   30   31    7    7
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :  14   23    5   18   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :  10   18   <5    9   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :  20   35    6    5   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :  16   30    8   12   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :  29   33   23   29    5    6
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  26   33   18   25    6    9
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  <5    9   <5    5   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :   6    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/26/2025 - 05/27/2025
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            0.9    0.9    1.3    3.3    5.7    7.7    9.4
Hutchinson            1.1    1.2    1.7    2.6    3.8    5.6    8.4
Haven                 2.1    2.3    3.4    5.0    6.3   10.2   11.2
Derby                 1.8    2.3    3.5    5.2    7.6   13.2   14.1
Mulvane               6.3    7.0    8.2   10.0   12.5   18.1   18.8
Oxford                8.2    9.4   10.9   12.6   16.3   20.1   21.2
Arkansas City         4.0    5.1    7.4    8.7   12.3   16.0   18.6
:Walnut Creek
Albert                4.0    4.1    4.9    9.4   14.3   20.8   25.1
:Cow Creek
Lyons                 4.6    4.6    7.0   10.6   14.4   17.2   18.4
Hutchinson            2.3    2.4    4.5    8.4   10.7   11.2   12.0
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills           -0.1    0.9    6.5   12.9   18.5   25.7   26.3
Halstead              6.1    6.6   10.0   15.6   20.9   26.5   27.2
Sedgwick              2.7    5.0    8.0   11.6   15.9   24.7   26.2
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.2    7.9   10.9   13.3   15.6   18.9   19.5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               3.6    4.0    5.1    6.3    8.3    9.6   10.2
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  3.4    4.5    6.7    9.1   13.5   17.9   19.4
Belle Plaine         10.2   11.0   12.9   15.1   18.9   23.4   25.1
:Slate Creek
Wellington            3.9    5.2    7.7   18.5   22.1   22.8   23.7
:Whitewater River
Towanda               3.1    5.8    8.7   12.1   20.8   24.8   26.5
Augusta               5.4    6.5    7.9    9.6   14.2   20.5   26.1
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             7.2    7.6    8.2   10.0   15.6   23.0   33.0
:Walnut River
El Dorado             2.9    3.2    3.8    6.9   11.0   13.1   15.6
Augusta               6.4    7.1    7.9   11.8   16.9   23.0   24.5
Winfield              3.3    4.1    6.5   10.3   17.7   24.4   30.0
Arkansas City         4.5    5.8    8.2   10.2   13.9   17.5   19.7
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                2.4    2.4    5.7    8.2   11.1   13.9   15.2
:Fall River
Fredonia              4.5    4.9    8.6   12.2   15.0   22.8   27.1
:Verdigris River
Altoona               6.6    8.1   10.9   14.9   18.6   19.9   21.3
Independence          8.5   10.3   14.9   20.0   29.1   33.9   36.8
Coffeyville           3.1    3.5    5.0    7.8   14.7   18.6   23.2
:Cottonwood River
Florence              3.8    4.2    7.4   13.5   24.0   26.5   27.3
Cottonwood Falls      1.9    2.6    3.8    6.2   10.1   13.2   14.1
Plymouth              6.2    8.7   13.8   24.6   32.6   33.9   34.4
:Neosho River
Iola                  9.3    9.5   10.3   13.4   14.7   18.4   19.4
Chanute              11.8   12.6   16.3   20.6   24.3   30.4   34.8
Erie                 16.0   17.6   21.7   25.3   30.9   37.1   41.6
Parsons              11.9   13.4   18.1   20.4   24.3   27.2   28.8
Oswego                9.8   10.4   12.7   15.8   21.3   23.9   25.9
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.2    4.2    4.5    8.2    9.6   22.1   23.3
:Saline River
Lincoln              10.7   10.7   12.3   15.0   23.7   30.0   34.6
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.4    6.4    7.1    8.5   19.4   23.8   29.7
Mentor                3.8    4.1    4.7    6.8   17.1   22.0   27.4
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                3.8    3.8    5.5    8.2   25.3   26.4   27.3
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria           7.7    9.2   14.2   20.5   27.3   32.1   34.0
Russell               3.5    3.5    4.9    6.9   10.2   12.5   15.7
Ellsworth             1.2    1.3    3.1    6.3    9.2   16.9   22.1
:Saline River
Russell               4.0    4.0    5.2    6.3    8.5   10.7   17.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based upon the above information, there is a near normal chance of
flooding across most of the HSA this spring. A substantial part of
this assessment is factoring in the soil moisture conditions and the
seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. Any flooding that
does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and
placement of precipitation and thunderstorms.

The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on
March 13th.

$$

Iwasko