057
FXUS63 KICT 081746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills are in the 10 to 15 below range across parts of
  central Kansas this morning.

- Chances (20-60%) for light snow return Thursday afternoon-
  evening with best chances over southeast Kansas.

- Below normal temperatures will persist through the upcoming
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Challenges:

1) High temperatures specifically in snowpack

2) Snow chances Thu afternoon-evening

Changes: Adjusted precipitation chances on Thursday

A wave is over the mid Mississippi River Valley into eastern Canada
while a wrapped up low pressure system sits over southern
California/the Baja. These systems drop south today while
another wave tracks southeast from the Northern Rockies.
Surface high pressure will gradually push its way eastward
today. Overnight/early morning temperatures range from zero
degrees in north central Kansas to the upper teens in southeast
Kansas; thankfully winds have stayed fairly light to reduce the
potential severity of the feels like temperatures. Wind chill
values range from the single digits to briefly near 15 below
zero in north central Kansas. An increase in temperatures is
expected for today into Thursday; daytime highs were kept lowest
over the greatest snowpack and should rise into the 20s. Since
Tuesday turned out to be warmer than previously thought by a few
degrees, it was decided to stay with the trend of keeping highs
below the median and just above the 25th percentile especially
in those snow covered areas.

The wave over the Baja will track northeast towards New Mexico into
the Southern Plains on Thursday while the northern wave moves into
the Northern Plains then Central Plains. This will bring the next
precipitation chances which have been slightly increased from
the previous forecast. Snow flurries or light snow are expected
starting Thursday afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Southeast Kansas remains to have the highest chances (40-60%)
for light snow which could accumulate to a dusting. There is
some variability in the ensembles with an upward shift across
far southern Kansas likely due to an area of better
frontogenesis. At this time, the thought is still the local
impacts would be in southeast Kansas. Greater impacts are
expected across northern Texas, southern Oklahoma and Arkansas.

This system shifts towards the Mississippi River Valley for Friday.
Another shortwave tracks from western Canada into the western
Dakotas on Saturday then moves southeast into the upper
Mississippi River Valley for the latter part of Sunday.
Precipitation is expected to stay off to the north leaving the
area dry after Thursday`s system. There will be minimal local
influence by this system other than reinforcing the below
seasonal normal airmass already in place. Temperatures are
expected to get closer to seasonal normal (lower 40s) by the
weekend with values rising back into the 30s even as early as
Thursday. The areas with the greatest snowpack may not rise as
much as currently forecast for the end of the week, and this
will be assessed on a daily basis.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Southwest winds are expected to prevail through much of the
24-hr period. A storm system approaching on Thursday will drive
a cold front into central Kansas toward the end of the period or
around 18Z shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in low
cigs, but not until after the current TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...MWM