772
FXUS63 KICT 161753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms possible tonight with dime to quarter size hail
  possible with stronger storms.

- Record highs expected on Thursday, with most locations seeing
  highs in the 90s.

- Very high to extreme fire danger Thursday afternoon.

- Heavy rain possible across southeast KS for Friday night
  through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Upper trough is currently departing the Northeast CONUS with
some weak upper ridging moving out of the Rockies and into the
High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper low is spinning just off of the
Central CA coast. At the surface, high is located down across
the Arklatex region with lee troughing strengthening across
eastern CO/into eastern WY.

Surface high will continue to shift east today as low pressure
continues to deepen across western KS/western Nebraska. This
will allow for strong south winds and low level moisture quickly
lifting north. Current thinking is that convection will hold
off until after 00z, when low level jet ramps-up which will
quickly increase 850-700mb moisture transport across the area.
Not looking for any widespread storms due to lack of upper
forcing with just iso-sct activity after dark. Any storms that
develop look to be rooted above 850mb, generally around 800mb,
with around 1,000J/KG CAPE available above this level. Given
plenty of effective shear, this looks to be enough instability
for storms to produce some dime to quarter size hail.

For Thu, models remain consistent in tracking a strong upper
impulse south across the Northern Intermountain and into the
Great Basin by early Thu evening. This will allow low pressure
to continue to strengthen over Western KS and will setup great
downslope conditions and extremely deep mixing, setting the
stage for record max temperatures for Thursday. Confidence
still remains high that most locations along and west of I-135
will see highs in the low 90s. Area records range from 89 at
Chanute to 92 degrees at Wichita.

Deep upper trough will continue to dig into the Desert Southwest
Thu night into Fri as a northern stream impulse slides across
the Northern Plains. This will cause a cold front to sink south
across the Northern and Central Plains and by Fri afternoon,
will stretch from central MO, through far southeast KS and into
western OK. Due to capping issues and lack of upper forcing, not
looking for much in the way to convection during the day Fri
and feel confident the more widespread activity will develop
after 00z when the low level jet impinges on the front. While
widespread severe storms are not expected, there maybe a few
that produce marginally severe hail or downburst winds. The
bigger threat looks to be heavy rain potential Fri night into
Sat over southeast KS with PWs expected to be around 175-200% of
normal.

Compared to the 00z models runs 24 hours ago, latest runs have
sped up the progression of the trough and kept it more of an
open wave. This looks to push the better shower/storm chances
east faster and also decrease precip and severe storm chances
for Sun afternoon, with the better severe chances east of our
forecast area. It is of note that the ECMWF is slightly slower
and less positively tilted compared to the GFS which does lead
to more widespread showers and storms Sat night. Whichever model
verifies, precip will be out of the forecast area by early Sun
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR ceilings are expected through this TAF period. The main
concern is thunderstorms later tonight, mainly after 01z.
Confidence is low on exact timing and coverage, so a PROB30 has
been added to all sites. After 05z, low level wind shear is
likely at HUT, ICT, and CNU with speeds up to 45 kts as a low
level jet moves in, diminishing around 10z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Thursday is shaping-up to be a dangerous fire weather day
across most of the area.

Winds are expected to veer around to the southwest on Thu which
will bring-in much drier air by the afternoon hours. At the same
time deep mixing will result in gusty winds. We are currently
looking for sustained wind speeds Thu afternoon in the 20-30 mph
range with gusts to 40-45 mph possible. The higher wind speeds
will be along and south of Highway 50. Afternoon RH values are
forecast to range from around 10-15% west of I-135 to around
20-25% over the Flint Hills. So we are currently expecting the
grassland fire danger to be in the extreme category west of
I-135 and very high over the remainder of the area. Hopefully
recent green-up will keep any fires from getting too out of
control Thursday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...GC/JWK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ