244
FXUS63 KICT 240854
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
354 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms possible west of I-135 this morning; more
  widespread showers/storms tonight into Monday

- Notably cooler temperatures today through the upcoming week

- Additional rain chances through the week; best chances
  Wednesday night into Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

As of 330AM Sunday morning, a deep midlevel trough remains across
the Great Lakes region with ridging across the western states. An
area of surface high pressure continues to settle into the eastern
half of KS. The exact placement of this surface high pressure will
play a pivotal role in the heavy rain axis this morning and again
tonight into Monday. Modest low-level WAA is producing scattered
showers and storms across northwest KS and adjacent areas of NE and
CO. Similar to the past few days, short range model guidance is
really struggling with initiation and propagation of convection.
As a result, there isn`t a particular model that this forecast
is directly leverage toward. That being said, it seems plausible
the ongoing convection may slowly propagate south within the modest
WAA regime. The eastern boundary is likely to be the western periphery
of the surface high pressure. At this point, that extends from roughly
Hill City to Hays to Great Bend to Pratt. As the morning progresses,
the area of surface high pressure will slowly migrate east and
northeast, bringing rain chances towards the I-135 corridor. No
strong or severe weather is expected.

Transitioning into this evening and tonight, two areas of convective
initiation are probable. The first area is within an upslope flow
regime across the high Plains of eastern CO. These storms will
progress east and southeast Sunday evening/night with the most
intense convection likely to remain within the strongest low-level
WAA and instability across mainly southwest KS. A 100 kt midlevel
jet will pivot from central NE through northern MO tonight into
Monday, leaving most of the state within its right entrance region.
This should promote additional showers and storms. This places
portions of central and south-central KS within the greatest PoPs
(>70%). Instability will remain quite meager (<500 J/kg) and should
greatly limit any potential for strong or severe weather.

The low and midlevel pattern will remain stagnant through much of
the upcoming week. As such, continued rain chances are expected with
the best chances arriving late Wednesday into Thursday as an 80-90
kt midlevel speed max ejects from the northern Plains into the mid-
MO valley. The stagnant pattern will keep temperatures below normal
and predominately in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Aviation concern will remain storm chances mainly Sunday
morning.

Still looking for storms to develop over western Nebraska late
tonight along a mid level baroclinic zone and as 850mb moisture
transport ramps-up. This activity will track southeast into
northwest/central KS Sun morning and may affect our northwest
fringes after 12z and likely closer to 15z. Confidence on how
far east precip will make it is low, so will just keep prob30s
at KRSL-KGBD for now. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are
likely along with light east and northeast winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL