820
FXUS63 KICT 092337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
537 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather with temperatures averaging just a little
  above early November climo for the upcoming week.

- Only a slight chance for scattered light rainfall amounts
  mainly east of a Salina to Wichita line Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A relatively quiet weather regime for the upcoming week with
temperatures generally just a bit above seasonal climo though
still keeping a Fall-feel. The dynamic Plains rain/snow making
deep mid-latitude cyclone of the past few days will lift
northeastward toward the Upper Midwest tonight and across the
western Great Lakes on Sunday. Weak ridging aloft in its wake
that develops over the Rockies and high Plains on Sunday will be
dampened a bit Sunday night as a low amplitude shortwave
ripples thru the westerly flow aloft toward the northern Plains.
This feature will move move into Iowa on Monday while a
stronger upper trof drops southeastward over the Great Lakes.
The associated surface trof/weak cold front will sag southward
into northern Kansas by Monday afternoon. Overall, dry weather
is expected for the area with a slight warming trend through the
60s Sunday into Monday. A more significant ridge aloft will
translate over the Plains by Monday night ahead of a more
pronounced upper trof which moves over the intermountain West
toward the northern Rockies. Rather modest moisture return looks
to accompany the passage of this mid-week upper trof and
associated Pacific cold front. Therefore will keep PoPs low,
mainly for locations along/east of the I-135 corridor Tuesday
night/early Wednesday. The rather progressive westerly flow
regime aloft will see ridging aloft over the area again by
Thursday with temperatures gradually warming Thursday into
Friday. The weather looks a bit more interesting and potentially
unsettled by next weekend, as a more vigorous upper trof/low
looks to settle southward across California into Arizona. This
will place Kansas in broad southwesterly flow aloft for several
days. Depending on the movement of a southward sagging cold
front and when this upper trof might eject toward or into the
area will determine our next chance for a more significant
weather/precip event.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Westerly winds
below 10 kt should prevail through much of the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BRF