155
FXUS63 KICT 162323
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions until Saturday evening

- Elevated storms possible Saturday evening to Sunday morning

- Severe storms potential increasing Sunday and Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the Upper
Mississippi Valley that will continue to move east into the Great
Lakes region by Saturday morning, keeping flow aloft
westerly/northwesterly in the Central Plains. As another shortwave
trough lifts out of the Desert Southwest Saturday morning into the
Southern Plains by Saturday evening, flow aloft will shift more
southwesterly. At the same time, a more robust upper trough over
northern California will dig into the Central Great Basin.

Transitioning into Saturday evening to Sunday morning, the mid/upper
level trough over the Central Great Basin is progged to dig towards
the Desert Southwest. At 850-700mb, low-level moisture advection
will increase as the warm front lifts north. Elevated storms are
likely to develop by Saturday evening, as WAA and strong instability
increases. With mid-level lapse rates increasing, and relatively
straight hodographs, splitting supercells are likely. Any storm that
develops is likely to have wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to ping
pong size and heavy rainfall, with the best chances in southern to
southeast Kansas.

As the axis of the trough becomes more negatively tilted into Sunday
afternoon, the base of the upper trough will traverse towards the
Central/Southern Rockies. There is decent model agreement that the
associated surface low sets up in eastern Colorado/western Kansas
Sunday afternoon. However, there is variance on where the warm front
and dryline set up. The ECMWF and GFS place the warm front
along/north of I-70 whereas the GDPS and NAM position it further
south. For the dryline, the GFS is further east than the ECMWF and
GDPS with the NAM solution closer to the latter. With dewpoints
increasing into the upper 60s/lower 70s combined with surface
heating, moderate to strong instability is expected. With the low-
level jet increasing Sunday afternoon/evening and veering winds near
the surface, hodographs become more elongated and favorable for
supercells. All hazards are possible with wind gusts up to 70 mph,
hail up to tennis ball size and tornadoes. Given this uncertainty,
stay tuned for later updates.

For Monday, the upper low is expected to move towards northwest
Nebraska/western South Dakota while the base of the trough sits over
New Mexico. The associated surface low will likely be positioned
near Nebraska/Kansas with the dryline along I-135/I-35. With
moderate to strong instability and favorable wind shear, supercells
with all hazards are possible Monday afternoon to evening. Once
again, uncertainty exists with the placement and timing of various
synoptic features, stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the
coming days.

It is possible for storms to linger into Tuesday morning, but by
Tuesday afternoon, precipitation should be east of our area. As the
upper trough continues east Wednesday morning, flow aloft will shift
back to northwesterly as a ridge begins building over the western
CONUS. Quiet and dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday
with a surface high in place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Gusty northwest winds will quickly subside this evening becoming
light through the overnight hours. Easterly winds will develop
over the area on Sat afternoon with gusts in the 15-20 knot
range late in the day. Some cumulus in the 4-5k ft range may
develop toward the end of the period with increasing chances for
showers and storms. Confidence remains too low this far out to
mention in TAFs at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM