Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
257 FXUS63 KICT 301109 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 609 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Training storms across south central KS this morning resulting in localized flooding concerns - Additional storms expected today across central KS - Much cooler today; heat returns Monday and Tuesday - Active weather pattern continues into next week including the chance for severe storms Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 As of 3 AM, a complex, yet significant, mesoscale setup was emerging across southern KS. A stalled surface frontal zone extended from west TX into central OK and northeast from there. Latest VWP from ICT reveals nearly 180 degrees of veering from 925 through 700 mb, suggesting moderate to strong WAA occurring. Elevated instability upwards of 2000 J/kg is analyzed across southern KS with PW values remain near/above 2". All of these ingredients sum up to the likelihood for heavy rainfall. To further enhance the potential for flooding, mean storm motions are parallel to the convergence zone. Given the latest radar and satellite trends with a persistent axis of convection across portions of south central KS, hoisted a Flood Watch through noon. While WAA may decrease through the morning hours, a remnant MCV across northeastern NM is forecast to lift into KS today. This should result in additional showers and storms, especially across central KS. Again, the high PW environment may support heavy rainfall. The showers/storms and associated cloud cover will provide heat relief area-wide today with temperatures in the 70s/80s. The heat will return area-wide Monday and Tuesday as the front retreats northward and midlevel ridging amplifies overhead. Temperatures will once again approach the 100 degree mark. A northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will set the stage for another break from the heat and additional storm chances through Thursday. The greatest chance for severe storms appears to arrive Tuesday afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Widespread showers with occasional thunderstorms will continue across portions of central and south central KS. VFR conditions should prevail even within -SHRA/-TSRA. Today`s shower/storm coverage should dwindle by mid to late afternoon. Winds will remain relatively light and from the northeast. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ067-082-083-091>093. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRB AVIATION...BRB