476
FXUS63 KICT 052334
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hotter temps arrive Wednesday with 100+ heat indices likely
  through at least Friday.

- Weak cold front still set to move into the area Sat night into
  Sunday night and will bring increased storm chances along
  with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Currently have an upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest
and spans into the Southern High Plains. In addition, water
vapor imagery shows an upper impulse lifting across northern MT.
Lee troughing remains at the surface from the Nebraska
Panhandle through Eastern CO.

Upper ridging will remain centered over NM through Wed and will
continue to expand across the Southern Plains. Just like early
this morning, low level jet will develop early Wed morning and
it`s not out of the question that it may bring a storm or two
around sunrise. However, at this time confidence isn`t high
enough to insert into forecast, but will be something to
monitor. 850mb temps by Wed afternoon are forecast to be in the
25-30c range across our western flank, and with good mixing,
should easily give us highs in the upper 90s to around 100. Same
setup is expected for Thursday, with temps even a degree or two
higher than Wednesday. Heat indices for both Wed and especially
Thu are expected to be in the 100-105 degree range, with the
higher values along and west of I-135.

By Thu evening, there is good model agreement in some shortwave
energy tracking over the Pacific Northwest and across the
Northern Rockies Friday morning. As this wave pushes east, a
cold front is expected to track south across the Northern
Plains. It will remain far enough north to allow for another
hot day across the region for Friday, with heat indices once
again in the 100-105 range. It`s possible a heat advisory could
be needed for Fri afternoon if these forecast trends continue.
Cold front is forecast to sag into northern KS by Sat evening
with both the GFS and ECMWF showing a secondary piece of energy
moving out of the Great Basin and across the Central Plains Sun-
Sun evening. This will likely push the front a bit further
south for Monday. Along with cooler temps, front will also bring
increased storm chances for the Sat night-Sun night time frame.
This will especially be true for northern parts of the forecast
area which will be closer to the upper energy.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. As the
low-level jet ramps up by tomorrow morning, low level wind shear
is expected at all sites except CNU and ICT. Wind shear is
possible at ICT, however it is left out of this issuance due to
low confidence. Southerly winds will pick back up by late
Wednesday morning with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...GC