213
FXUS63 KICT 121132
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm for today and Thursday.

- Strong winds Friday along with very dangerous fire weather
  conditions.

- Quick return to above normal temps by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse tracking
across southern AZ with some northern stream energy moving into
the Northern Great Lakes region. At the surface, a stationary
front extends from central MO through southeast KS.

Southwest CONUS upper impulse will continue tracking quickly
east today and by the afternoon hours will be moving out across
West TX and into the Arklatex region by this evening. Keeping
with the thinking that showers and storms with this wave will
stay southeast of the forecast area this afternoon and
especially tonight, mainly over AR and southern MO. Even though
there is some decent elevated instability tonight over southeast
KS, lack of moisture transport should keep storms south of our
forecast area. Brief upper ridging will quickly transition to
southwest flow aloft on Thursday which will allow winds to flip
around to the south and increase. The strongest wind speeds Thu
afternoon will be over western KS where fire wx concerns will
also be elevated.

Powerful shortwave trough will be digging across the Desert
Southwest on Thu night and out across the TX/OK Panhandles by
early Fri morning. Models still agree surprisingly well on the
location and timing of this system which does lead to increased
confidence. By 18z Fri, sfc low will be situated near or just
north of KDDC and will lift into southeast Nebraska by 00z.
Still looking like the main impact from this system will be very
strong west and southwest winds on Fri, and then northwest
winds Fri night as the shortwave departs to the northeast. We
are still looking for afternoon wind speeds in the 30 to 40 mph
range with gusts 45 to 60 mph. This will be the result of very
strong pressure gradient combined with very deep mixing to
around 700mb. Right now it`s looking like the strongest wind
speeds would be over the Flint Hills into southeast KS. Strong
northwest winds are then expected Fri evening across mainly
central KS on the backside of the low, with sustained speeds
around 30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph. There are indications that a
thin line of showers or storms may rapidly lift northeast
across south central into northeast KS Fri afternoon, which may
provide a locally enhanced area of stronger winds.

By 12z Sat, the upper low will be approaching the Western Great
Lakes region with additional upper energy digging across Central
TX. A return to seasonal temps can be expected for Sat with most
locations seeing highs in the 50s. Northwest flow aloft will
settle over the region by Sun which will get us back into some
warm advection and highs a few degrees warmer than Saturday.
Warm advection will really ramp-up for Mon as upper pattern
flattens out and will bring back highs in the 70s. Medium range
models start to diverge after Mon, with the GFS much more
progressive with our next upper trough while the ECMWF holds it
back west much longer. So confidence beyond Mon is fairly low at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place
through this TAF period. In addition, winds will remain on the
light side with most sites seeing north and northeast winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Very high fire danger is expected Thursday afternoon for
locations generally west of Highway 14. Meanwhile, Friday still
looks like a more volatile fire weather day due to extreme
winds.

Wind will flip around to the southeast on Thu as our next storm
system approaches from the west. This will also increase wind
speeds with the highest speeds generally west of I-135, where
gusts to around 30-35 mph will be possible. Stronger wind speeds
with combine with afternoon RH values around 20% to produce
very high fire conditions for location along and especially west
of Highway 14 on Thursday afternoon.

For Friday, south winds will rapidly increase during the late
morning hours and also turn to the southwest. All of south
central KS will see sustained speed in the 30 to 35 mph range
with gusts 40 to 50 mph. Meanwhile, the strongest speeds will
be over the Flint Hills into southeast KS where some gusts in
the 50 to 60 mph range will be possible. Afternoon RH values
will generally be in the 20 to 30% range which will produce
extreme grassland fire danger for most of south central and all
of southeast KS, including the Flint Hills. Any fires that
start on Fri will be very difficult to control.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...RBL