534
FXUS63 KICT 110721
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm above normal temperatures and breezy south winds for this
weekend

- Shower/storm chances possible for Sunday night into Tuesday
  as a frontal boundary pushes into the area

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Warm above normal temperatures with breezy south winds will continue
through this weekend as upper level ridging remains in control over
the central plains. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows
upper level wave moving onshore over northern California. This upper
wave will track eastward across the Rockies and then eject northeast
into the the northern plains on Sunday. This will push a cold front
southward into Kansas with scattered showers/storms possible for
Sunday night. Precipitation chances look to increase on Monday as
frontal boundary slows and stalls over southeast Kansas. Limited
instability and poor mid-level lapse rates will prohibit
strong/severe thunderstorm development. Temperatures will be cooler
on Monday with rain/clouds in the area. The frontal boundary will
begin to lift northward as a warm front for Monday night into
Tuesday. This is in response to next upper level wave digging into
the southwestern states on Tuesday amplifying the upper level ridge
over the central plains.

Medium range models/GEFS ensemble mean continue to show warming of
mid-level temperatures across the central plains, as the upper ridge
amplifies for Wednesday-Thursday with a slow migration to the east.
This will keep a lid on the atmosphere and prohibit thunderstorm
development and allow warmer temperatures to spread back into
Kansas. The next precipitation chances for Kansas will depend on
timing of the upper trough axis pivoting eastward from the
southwestern states. Latest model guidance suggests this could occur
either Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Aviation concerns are still looking to remain on the low side
through the next 24 hours.

Surface low pressure will strengthen over Eastern CO on Sat
which will turn winds around to the southeast and increase them
by the afternoon hours. A few gusts to 30 mph still look
possible for locations west of I-135 Sat afternoon. Confidence
remains high in VFR conditions remaining in place with low
clouds and fog tonight remaining east of our TAF sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL