502
FXUS63 KICT 130640
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
140 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and a few embedded storms for today along
with cooler daytime highs

- Warmer temperatures return for Tuesday-Friday and next chance
  of rain for late Thursday night into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Current polar satellite moisture analysis continues to show rich
precipitable water airmass streaming north from west Texas into
southern Kansas early this morning. This will allow another round of
scattered to numerous showers/storms to develop over Oklahoma and
spread northward into Kansas today. A few embedded storms are
possible but not expecting strong or severe storms due to poor mid
level lapse rates/limited instability. The better vertical lift will
migrate slowly northward tonight with precipitation areas shifting
north of central Kansas during the overnight hours.

Meanwhile latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a robust upper
level system over the northwestern states diving southward. This
system will dig into the southwestern states on Tuesday, then move
slowly northeast across the Rockies and eject into the northern
plains by Thursday. This upper wave will cause numerous
showers/storms to develop over western Kansas on Thursday. Dry
weather and warmer temperatures are expected for the eastern half of
Kansas Wed-Thu with upper level ridge axis influencing the area.
Showers/storms look to spread east into central and eastern Kansas
for late Thursday night into Friday as a cold front moves slowly
across the region. Heading into next weekend long range models
are showing the upper trough axis shifting east of the central
plains with drier air overspreading Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Aviation concerns will remain showers through Monday along with
lowering ceilings starting Monday afternoon.

Cold front currently stretches from northeast KS, through KSLN
and now approaching KHUT. North of the front winds have flipped
around to the north and northeast with south winds remaining
south of the front. Areas of light rain has been working across
southern and southeast KS tonight as a weak mid level impulse
slides across the area. This initial area of rain will move out
of southeast KS in the next few hours. Additional showers are
expected to develop generally after 15z Mon and lift gradually
north into the evening hours. Still not looking for any thunder
with this activity. In addition to the showers, also looking
for cigs to start to lower, with MVFR likely for areas along and
west of I-135 late Mon afternoon and evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL