246
FXUS63 KICT 101124
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
524 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow ending from west to east early to mid this morning.
  Additional accumulations 1 to perhaps 2 inches.

- Additional light precipitation possible late Saturday into
  Saturday night, but snow accumulations will likely be only a
  dusting at best.

- Mostly below average temperatures through early to mid next
  week, with a gradual warming trend mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

PRECIPITATION:

Snow will gradually end from west to east through early to mid-
morning, as the mid-level trough axis exits to the east. Additional
snow accumulations up to around one to perhaps two inches are
possible from roughly the Turnpike corridor on east. Breezy
northwest winds will spread southeast early this morning, supporting
chilly wind chills in the single digits and teens.

Our next chance of light precipitation arrives over mainly the
northern half of Kansas (possibly as far south as generally Highway
50) late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, as a mid/upper
trough approaches from the northwest. All guidance supports only
light precipitation amounts with this next system. Low-level wet-
bulb temperatures look marginal with this next system, so light
rain/sprinkles may mix in with the flurries/light snow. At this time
it appears snow amounts will only be a dusting at best. We will
continue to monitor model trends with this next system.

Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports mostly dry weather
across the region next week, as upper ridging builds east into Mid-
America. By next weekend, model consensus does support the potential
for increased precipitation chances, as ensemble means deepen upper
troughing over the central and western CONUS. There remains plenty
of uncertainty this far out. We will continue to refine the forecast
over the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Temperatures the next several days look to remain mostly below
average, as persistent central and eastern CONUS upper troughing
allows the persistent influence of chilly Canadian high pressure
across the region. We will have a modest warm up Saturday and Sunday
into the 30s to near 40 degrees (still below average though), with
another shot of cold air Sunday night through Monday night. Monday
will likely be the coldest day of the next 7, with highs in the 20s
to low 30s, and chilly morning wind chills near zero in spots. A
gradual warming trend to near average is expected through mid to
late next week, as upper ridging progresses east-southeast over Mid-
America.

As we look ahead into next weekend and the week after (8+ days from
now), ensemble consensus supports a return to below average
temperatures, as potential upper troughing digs over the central
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Areas of light snow and associated IFR to MVFR conditions will
gradually exit eastern Kansas to the east by mid-morning. MVFR
to low VFR ceilings will linger behind this snow over eastern
Kansas through around midday. VFR conditions expected
thereafter through tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
KSZ050-051-067-070>072-093>096-098>100.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
KSZ052-053-068-069-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK