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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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660 FXUS63 KICT 010811 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 311 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms this morning, especially across central KS - Heat and humidity return this afternoon and Tuesday; Wednesday-Thursday across southern KS - Severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening - Additional storm chances through the week and into next weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As of 3 AM Monday morning, broad low and midlevel WAA continues to generate showers and storms across mainly central KS. Meager midlevel lapse rates (~6 C/km) are limiting instability to a few hundred J/kg. Effective shear remains quite weak (less than 30 kt) which is resulting in minimal updraft organization and predominately pulse convection. As a result, the chief concerns are brief heavy rainfall and hail up to dime size. More impactful, heat and humidity will return to much of the area today and Tuesday as midlevel ridging amplifies overhead. Temperatures will once again surge through the 90s and near the 100 degree mark. A moist boundary layer, characterized by dew points in the 70s, will create heat index values around 105 this afternoon. A northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, another hot and humid afternoon is expected with heat index values around 105 once again. The frontal zone may slide into central KS early Tuesday afternoon, keeping heat index values below 100 degrees. As such, have opted for a Heat Advisory for areas along and southeast of a line from Salina to Lyons. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening along the front across portions of central and south central KS. Effective shear up to 30 kt may support some updraft organization. Otherwise, the chief concerns will remain damaging winds up to 70 mph and heavy rainfall. Increasing WAA over the frontal zone Tuesday night/Wednesday morning should result in more-widespread convection. Convective concerns should transition to a heavy rainfall threat with the possibility of training storms. The frontal zone will remain stalled across the area Wednesday into Thursday. Continued WAA across the frontal zone will yield additional showers and storms. Immediately south of the front (near the OK border), hot temperatures and humid conditions may contribute to heat index values around 105 Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. An active weather pattern into next weekend should keep temperatures near average with additional rain/storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Widely scattered showers have developed near SLN and should persist for the next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail in these showers. Additional showers and storms are possible after 09-10Z, mainly at RSL and SLN. In addition, MVFR CIGS should arrive and continue through mid-morning. Stratus will scatter by mid-morning as southeasterly winds increase to 15-25 kt with even stronger wind speeds by mid-afternoon. The strongest winds will remain across central KS at GBD and RSL. Marginal LLWS conditions are possible at HUT, SLN, RSL, and GBD towards the end of the period but confidence is too low for mention at this point. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093-098>100. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ049>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRB AVIATION...BRB