441
FXUS63 KICT 040400
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1100 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low storm chances remain this afternoon and evening; a strong or
  severe storm cannot be ruled out.

- Mild on Monday, then gradual warming trend expected throughout
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The past couple of days have been an extremely difficult forecast
period, and unfortunately, its not much easier today. As of early
this afternoon, a weak MCV across northern Kansas/southern Nebraska
has aided in a few junky showers and storms across the northern
Flint Hills. Additionally, some elevated showers have developed
along the Kansas Turnpike along the differential heating boundary
caused by thick cloud cover across eastern Kansas. A mid/upper tough
located over the central plains is going to be reinforced by the
upper jet forecast to nose into the High Plains later today. This
should put central/south-central Kansas underneath a region of
diffluence aloft. Even with the apparent upper level support, there
may not be enough focus at the surface to support storm development.
This scenario is best shown by the 12-18Z runs of the HRRR
which shows little to no additional storm development across the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. This appears as
though this is the likely outcome for the forecast area based
on trends early this afternoon.

However, if there remains enough of a focus at the surface, the
environment later this afternoon and evening would support a couple
of strong to severe storms, mainly west of a Lincoln-Hutchinson-
Harper line. The surface feature that may help to trigger a storm or
two this afternoon is a weak boundary located generally along a
Great Bend-Alva line, but it is becoming more diffuse this
afternoon. Should a storm develop, around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
along with 35-40 knots of shear would support organized
convection, possibly supercells. Large hail and damaging winds
would be the main concerns, and enhanced low-level shear closer
to 00Z would leave a brief window of opportunity for a tornado.
To reiterate though, this continues to remain a very low
probability outcome. If storms develop, some upscale growth is
possible as the LLJ ramps up tonight, but any MCS should be
relatively short-lived as instability is forecast to decrease
tonight. By early Monday morning, storm chances should dwindle
and move south out of the forecast area. POPs were brought under
30% for this afternoon through tonight, but based on current
trends, this may be a bit high.

Another mild day is expected on Monday as the mid/upper trough
slowly departs the region. However, a lobe of the upper ridge
located across the southwestern CONUS is expected to build and sit
over the central plains through much of next week. This won`t be a
particularly strong ridge, and afternoon temperatures will gradually
warm up to average for this time of year by the end of the week.
This upper ridge will also help to keep rain and storm chances at
bay through the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A few pesky hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible overnight across the region. In the short-term at
least, the latest radar trends support the highest chances in
vicinity of SLN, so included a few hours of PROB30 -TSRA for a
few hours. Elsewhere, predictability is too low to warrant
mention in the 06z TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK