873
FXUS63 KICT 141719
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog and rain showers early this morning across
  central Kansas

- Warmer temperatures and dry weather returns for Wednesday and
Thursday

- Next round of showers/storms will be possible for late
  Thursday night through Saturday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Rather soupy conditions early this morning with some areas of
dense fog and passing rain showers were affecting parts of
central/south central Kansas. The areas of dense fog could be
brief early this morning across central Kansas as any passing
rain shower should improve visibilities. At the surface a
stalled out frontal boundary in Oklahoma will begin to lift
slowly northward as a warm front today. Additional rain showers
have developed over southwestern Kansas early this morning north
of the warm front, and some of this activity will affect
central Kansas mainly during the morning hours. The
precipitation will taper off for central Kansas as the warm
front boundary pushes further northward into Nebraska. Meanwhile
current satellite water vapor imagery shows a well pronounced
upper level low pressure system over southern California. This
system will lift slowly northeast across the Rockies and eject
out into the northern plains by Thursday night. Dry weather and
warmer temperatures will prevail across central/eastern Kansas
for Wed-Thu as upper level ridge amplifies and moves slowly
east.

Next round for showers/storms still looks favorable to develop over
western sections of Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday. Some of this
activity could spread into central Kansas late Thursday night and
shift eastward across Kansas for Friday as a cold front moves slowly
east. At this time instability levels projected by model guidance
for this period remains low which would limit strong/severe storm
potential. Depending on model timing for the cold front exiting
Kansas there could be some lingering showers/storms over southeast
Kansas on Saturday. Models seem to be in good agreement with much
drier air and strong subsidence overspreading the region behind
departing upper trough for Saturday afternoon through the remainder
of the weekend. This will result in dry weather conditions and
daytime highs near or slightly above normal for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions have returned at all sites and VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the period. A few showers are
ongoing across the OK and TX Panhandles. These may impact GBD or
RSL this afternoon and have added a PROB30 to account for this
potential. Otherwise, winds will remain from the south at 6-12
kt.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...BRF