910
FXUS63 KICT 051728
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decent chances for rain across southern Kansas today

- High confidence for a dry weather pattern to persist for Friday
through all of next week across Kansas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a compact and robust PV
wave over eastern Colorado moving eastward. This system has sparked
off numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms over southwest
Kansas due to modest 700mb warm advection and weak elevated
instability. RAP and REFS short range models depict this axis of
modest lift and weak elevated instability to spread into southern
Kansas this morning. Therefore, expecting scattered to numerous
showers to spread across southern Kansas during the morning and
afternoon hours. Can`t rule out a few short-lived embedded
storms near the KS/OK border this morning. This activity will
gradually shift east of the area by this evening. Upper level
ridging briefly builds across the central plains on Friday with
surface high pressure settling over Kansas and temperatures
slightly below normal.

Models continue to show a weak upper trough racing southeast across
the region for Saturday. Not expecting any precipitation since the
weak system will have virtually no moisture to work with. Meanwhile,
long range deterministic models and model ensembles are in solid
agreement with a high amplitude upper ridge building across the
Rockies. This creates high confidence for above normal temperatures
and a dry weather pattern to prevail for Sunday through all of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A few light showers will impact south-central Kansas this
afternoon. Otherwise, light northerly winds and mostly cloudy
conditions are expected through the end of the forecast time
frame. Cigs will fall to just above MVFR levels for all sites
between 06-12Z with CNU likely seeing MVFR ceilings along with
light drizzle/mist.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...AMD