290
FXUS63 KICT 300723
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm above normal temperatures will affect the region today

- A couple cold fronts will move across Kansas this week and bring
some relief from the warmer temperatures for a couple days but
limited moisture will result in no precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

The dry/quiet weather pattern will continue across the central
plains for several more days, as a predominately upper zonal
flow regime persists across the northern plains with a few upper
waves racing eastward and lack of moisture streaming back into
Kansas. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper wave
over Montana which will sprint eastward and reach the Great
Lakes by Tuesday morning. This will push a cold front southward
across Kansas for this afternoon into tonight with warm above
normal temperatures once again for central/southern Kansas.
Westerly downslope effects could boost daytime highs closer to
the mid 90s across central Kansas today. No precipitation
expected with this cold front due to minimal moisture in place,
therefore just a cool down with Tuesday highs in the 70s. Warmer
temperatures will quickly return for Wednesday into Thursday.
Models show another fleet-footed upper level wave moving east
across the northern plains on Thursday into Friday. This will
push another cold front southward and associated cooler air into
Kansas on Friday, however this cool down will be short lived as
southerly flow quickly brings warmer air back into Kansas with
above normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Main aviation concerns will be some patchy fog over southeast
KS and a wind shift Mon night associated with a cold front.

Clear skies and light winds will promote some fog development
over southeast KS early this morning. Current thinking is that
if it forms, it will be fairly shallow in nature. So for now
will just run with a 5sm tempo ground at KCNU. Cold front is
still expected to move through Mon night. It is expected to pass
through KRSL-KGBD by 03z and KICT around 06z. The main effect
this feature will have will be to flip winds around to the north
with some gusts around 25 mph possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL