325
FXUS63 KICT 302343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers in southeast KS this afternoon, then dry
  areawide through Wednesday.

- Chances for showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning, with persisting chances through the weekend.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s for
  the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates an upper
shortwave over the Northern Plains while a mid/upper ridge settles
in over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front spans from
the Oklahoma Panhandle to Lake Michigan, with breezy northerly winds
observed within the post-frontal airmass. Showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder are possible along the leading edge of this
surface boundary as it continues to make its way through south
central and southeast Kansas this afternoon.

.PRECIPITATION...

Northwest flow aloft is expected over the region as the
aforementioned mid-level ridge begins to slide eastward later today
into Wednesday. As prior discussions have mentioned, high pressure
sliding southward into the forecast area late tonight into Tuesday
morning will usher in drier air for the middle of the week, thereby
precluding rain chances in the near term.

Increasing moisture transport and low-level theta-e advection on the
nose of the LLJ will provide support for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday across south central
and southeast Kansas. Better chances for storms arrive Friday, with
long-range models continuing to show a mid/upper trough ejecting out
of the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains. Inconsistencies are
now beginning to appear between model solutions, with the GFS
presenting a deeper, stronger upper low while the Euro depicts a
shallower, more progressive system. Both solutions appear to support
the potential for severe weather afternoon/night, though the GFS
indicates showers and storms lingering into Saturday morning, which
may support a flooding threat. Regardless, this will bear monitoring
in the coming days as additional details come into focus. Long-range
ensembles suggest additional chances for rain through the weekend
and into early next week, though details regarding magnitude and
exact location remain unclear at this time.

.TEMPERATURES...

Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout the week, with
afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Low
temperatures in the middle 60s are forecast through Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning thanks to a drier airmass making its way into
the area. Increasing low-level moisture will allow for low
temperatures in the low to middle 70s beginning Wednesday night and
lasting into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light winds
will gradually shift east then eventually southeast starting at
RSL, GBD, and SLN then progressing to the other sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...GC