969
FXUS63 KICT 041716
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers area-wide today; a few storms across southeast KS
  this afternoon/evening

- Cool through the weekend; warming trend next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

As of 330 AM Friday morning, strong southwesterly midlevel flow
remains across the Plains with a stalled frontal zone from the
Ark-La-Tex into the mid-MS valley. An large axis of rainfall is
spreading north from western OK/TX in response to a strong
midlevel WAA pattern in conjunction with right-entrance region
ascent from a 140 kt jet extending from northeast CO through WI.
This rain axis will overspread most of the forecast area
through the morning hours with the greatest coverage across
south-central and southeast KS. Most locations are likely
to receive a couple of tenths but short range guidance suggests
an enhanced band of rainfall may extend from portions of
Harper/Sumner counties northward along the I-135 corridor. Based
on regional radar, an enhanced band of rainfall exists across
the eastern TX Panhandle and its current NNE movement would lift
this band across the areas mentioned. Rain amounts greater than
0.5" are possible with this rain band. The strongest ascent
will lift north and east of the area throughout the afternoon,
although gentle height falls may promote widely scattered
showers throughout the afternoon. Drier midlevel air will move
into eastern KS this afternoon/evening, steepening lapse rates.
This may allow for the development of a few thunderstorms across
mainly southeast KS. Effective shear values are forecast to
remain less than 30 kt, therefore the potential for
strong/severe storms is low.

A northern stream midlevel trough will eject across the northern
Plains late tonight, shunting the next cold front through the
forecast area. Additional rainfall chances will exist with its
passage. Overnight lows will tumble into the 30s and 40s with the
coldest temperatures across central KS. Otherwise, the main midlevel
low will eject into the southern Plains late Saturday into Sunday.
Uncertainty remains with the northern extent of precipitation
Saturday night. That being said, thermal profiles appear to cool
sufficiently for the introduction of a rain/snow mix Saturday
evening into Saturday night for the entire area. A light dusting is
possible, especially on grassy or elevated surfaces. Sunday morning
temperatures will range from the mid-20s across central KS to the
mid-30s across southeast KS.

Transitioning into Sunday and beyond, precipitation chances will end
Sunday morning with the midlevel trough/low moving well-southeast of
the area. Another cold morning is expected Monday with temperatures
in the low-30s area-wide. Increasing midlevel heights next week will
promote a gradual warming trend with temperatures back in the 70s
area-wide by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

IFR conditions will continue to prevail over the area with KSLN
and KCNU dropping to IFR in the next hour or so. Off and on
showers will also continue with the chance of TS activity near
KCNU later today. Ceilings will remain IFR throughout the period
although visibility should remain above 3 miles for all sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...SGS