522
FXUS63 KICT 101113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday

- Slight chance for showers/thunder this morning

- Big drop in temperatures coming Sunday and into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

The forecast for this cycle starts out a little tricky.  Current
satellite shows a 500mb vort max moving through the central portion
of the state. Combine this with rather good lapse rates (7-8C/Km)
and decent CAPE values increasing the chances for convection.  The
main inhibiter to  convection is the trigger remains rather weak and
nebulous. This indicates any showers or thunderstorms that do
develop will be isolated in nature and should be restricted to
around sunrise. The lack of deep layer shear and upper level jet
support indicates this activity will not be strong or severe.

Temperatures for today and through the weekend look to remain rather
warm for this time of year.  Upper level ridging remains the
dominate feature of the CWA for the end of the week. As such, this
will provide plenty of warm, above normal temperatures through
Saturday.

Sunday and into next week, the weather pattern will take a
significant shift as the next weather system will encroach on the
region. This front, unlike the last several to come through in the
past week or so, is much more powerful.  Temperatures are expected
to drop into the normal range.  Unfortunately, there will not be
enough time for moisture to be in place prior to frontal passage. As
such, this front is expected to come through dry.  Rather strong CAA
will dominate much of early next week but temperatures are expected
to moderate some and push back above normal by the middle to end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the this TAF period. There is a
slight chance (<20%) for some showers or a thunderstorm between
the KICT and KCNU terminals between now and 18Z. This activity
is expected to isolated and more likely to not affect the
terminals. As such, left it out of the TAF at this time. Winds
will remain light and out of the South and east.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM