439
FXUS63 KICT 111904
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
204 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional storm chances later this evening through Tuesday
  morning, mainly across southeast Kansas.

- Rain chances end mid week and give way to a gradual warm up
  through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..

Early this afternoon, the upper trough, which helped to trigger
widespread showers and storms across much of Kansas last night and
this morning, resides over the central plains. At the surface, a
weak MCV/surface low was left in the wake of this activity and is
slowly moving into northeast Kansas. With cool temperatures aloft
and weak capping, a few showers and storms have developed across
northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, though coverage is expected
to remain isolated. Meanwhile, the remnant outflow/frontal boundary
is draped over northern Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. This
feature will be the focus for additional showers and storms later
this afternoon through Tuesday morning across far southern and
southeast Kansas. While areas north of the boundary look to be
uncapped this afternoon, much of the convection will likely be
focused along the boundary where surface convergence is the best.
The 12Z CAM suite seems to pick up on this trend which keeps
almost all of the convection south of the state line with the
exception of far southeast Kansas. Therefore, POPs have been cut
quite significantly across central and south-central Kansas for
this afternoon and evening. Still, PWATs remain above 1.5", so
any storm that develops is likely to produce heavy rainfall, and
localized flooding could be a concern, especially across
southeast Kansas.

Through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, there is
some support for widely scattered convection across south-
central Kansas where very subtle WAA will be present. However,
the signal isn`t particularly strong, so POPs were kept under
30%. A break in chances for showers and storms is likely mid-
morning Tuesday through the early afternoon hours. Then,
isolated convection is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening as
the axis of the upper tough remains over a moist and weakly
capped environment. However, shear will be under 10 knots, so no
organized strong to severe storms are expected. Very low
chances for lingering showers are forecast for southeast Kansas
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As an upper ridge
builds over the central plains, rain chances will come to an
end, and temperatures will gradually warm to around average for
this time of year.

...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

There`s not much to add about the forecast for the end of the week.
An upper ridge forecast to build over the central plains will
continue to expand and marginally strengthen. Thus, a gradual
increase in temperatures is forecast for the end of the week
with little to no chances for meaningful precipitation. Towards
the end of the weekend and into next week, there are some
signals that weaknesses in the ridge could leave the door open
for some low storm chances. However, details like this are hard
to pin down this far out, so stay tuned to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions will return at all sites within the next hour. A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
north central KS. Coverage remains sparse and confidence in
impacts to RSL or SLN remains low. Therefore, have opted for a
PROB30 mention through 20Z at RSL and 21Z at SLN. Otherwise,
winds will remain generally light and variable. A stray storm
cannot be entirely ruled out at CNU and ICT tonight but
confidence is too low for mention at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF