759
FXUS63 KICT 010457
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1057 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will develop early Mon over central Kansas spreading south
  and east through the day before diminishing from west to east.

- Snowfall totals of 2-4 inches are anticipated in parts of
  central KS on Monday with 1-2 inches possible further south
  over parts of south central and southeast KS.

-Moderating temperatures on Tue before another shot of cold air
 arrives late Wed into Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A modified arctic airmass remains in place across the Northern and
portions of the Central Plains with snow evident on visible
satellite imagery as far south as northern Kansas (northern Lincoln
county). The next storm system that is expected to arrive on Monday
was situated over the Northern Intermountain/Northern Rockies region
this morning. This shortwave trough is progged to dig over the
Rockies through tonight before emerging over the Central Plains on
Monday. We continue to see some differences in exactly where this
system will track leading to some uncertainty in exactly where the
heaviest band of snowfall will occur. Model consensus generally
supports areas along and north of Highway 50 for the highest
snowfall potential (2-4 inches). Some of the short range model data
suggests a subtle shift southward in the track of the system and
the Winter Weather Advisory for parts of south central and
southeast Kansas was expanded southward only slightly. A subtle
trend southward would lend more support the recent runs of the ECMWF/EPS
which has maintained a slightly further south solution when
compared to the GFS/GEFS with further support from the CMCE.

Snow is expected to develop late tonight while becoming more
widespread during the morning hours on Monday. The best lift through
the depth of the dendritic snow growth zone is expected to shift
from our central Kansas counties early on Monday south and eastward
to around the Kansas Turnpike toward midday before shifting into
southeast KS during the early afternoon hours. Relatively high SLRs
are anticipated for late November, especially across our central KS
counties where a deep isothermal layer is progged. Minimal
fracturing due to relatively weak winds in the dendritic growth zone
and steep lapse rates above this layer is expected to result in a
brief window for efficient snowfall production. The biggest limiting
factor may be the shorter duration of the event as the progressive
trough axis is progged to be east of area by late afternoon. The
bottom line: snowfall totals were increased along the I-70 corridor
where 2-4 inches are now anticipated. Further south, a general 1-2
inches is anticipated before the activity diminishes from west to
east on Monday afternoon. Temperatures may struggle to reach
freezing over much of the area with values topping out in the upper
20s.

Tue-Thu..moderating temperatures are anticipated on Tue although for
those areas where a greater snow depth materializes, we may be too
aggressive with maximum temperatures. Most areas are expected to see
highs climb into the low to mid 40s. Another cold front is progged
to arrive late Wednesday, keeping below normal temperatures
entrenched across the area. Highs on Thu are expected to remain 15-
20 degrees below average for early Dec.

Thu Night-Sunday...Another shortwave trough is progged to sweep over
the area late Thu into Friday. There remains low probabilities (20%)
for a light wintry mix with this system although confidence in the
details remains fairly low. Moderating temperatures are expected Fri-
Sat with highs reaching the mid and upper 40s on Sat. This warm-up
will be short-lived as another cold front arrives on Sunday keeping
below average temperatures in place across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Snow continues to be anticipated to impact all sites at some point
during this period, with the primary impacts to cigs and vsbys
remaining in central KS.

Short-term models highlight development in central KS beginning
around 08Z and expanding in coverage to impact RSL and GBD within
the 10-12Z window. Ensemble consensus supports vsbys reduced to
IFR/LIFR with the heaviest snow in the early/mid morning hours at
these sites. Snow rates will aid in vsby reduction as the system
shifts to the east and impacts SLN/HUT/ICT, though confidence is
lower in impacts making it to ICT and further east to CNU. As such,
decided to hold these sites at IFR for now and will have to AMD as
obs and model trends become available.

Snow will gradually end from west to east throughout the day.
Lingering MVFR cigs will dissipate shortly thereafter and give way
to VFR by late in the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>071-082-083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK