678
FXUS63 KICT 072344
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for widely scattered showers and storms may begin as
  early as midnight tonight.

- While most of the activity will be benign, can`t rule out a
  strong to marginally severe storm Monday into early Tuesday
  morning.

- Near normal temperatures still expected to return by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a strong upper trough
exiting eastward across the Great Lakes region along with am upper
ridge building across the southwestern CONUS. The central plains
reside underneath a weak northwesterly flow regime, and a subtle
ripple in this flow is located across the central Rockies and will
slowly approach the region late tonight through Monday afternoon.

There is already a bit surface response to increased winds aloft
over the Rockies as surface pressures have started to fall across
the High Plains. This will continue tonight and throughout the day
on Monday leaving a tight pressure gradient across the area, and
promoting breezy southerly winds. Some locations across central
Kansas could see wind gusts around 30-35 mph Monday afternoon.
Additionally, with the ridge building across the southwesterly
CONUS, warmer mid-level temperatures are forecast to creep their way
back over the central plains. As a result of this subtle mid-level
WAA set to begin overnight tonight, chances for some pesky widely
scattered showers and storms have been introduced into the forecast
beginning generally after midnight tonight. Coverage of this
activity is a bit uncertain, but PoPs for areas along and west of
the Flint Hills are generally around 20-30% late tonight into Monday
morning. This activity should generally wane through the late
morning hours on Monday, but additional shower and storm development
is possible Monday afternoon within the vicinity of I-135 and the
Kansas Turnpike. There`s some uncertainty in the coverage and
intensity of the activity Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The main wrench in the forecast is the main axis of instability
(western Kansas) is likely to be somewhat offset from the better
forcing for ascent (central/eastern Kansas). There could be some
overlap across central Kansas where shear and instability are
better, and a strong to marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out
if the ingredients come together Monday afternoon and evening. With
the loss of diurnal heating, the intensity of any ongoing
activity should wane by Monday night, and leftover showers and
storms may possibly fester across eastern Kansas through Tuesday
morning.

With the mid/upper ridge axis continuing the build into the central
plains on Tuesday, this will likely cap off any additional
convection Tuesday afternoon, and should help to stave off most rain
chances for the rest of the week (more on this soon). In addition,
temperatures should warm back up closer to normal for this time of
year with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s through the
remainder of the week. Moving ahead towards the middle and latter
portions of the week, some of the mid/long range models are hinting
that the mid/upper ridge forecast to build across the region will be
somewhat weaker than previously indicated. As such, there is a small
(under 20%) chance of locations along and north of I-70 seeing some
shower and storm activity Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as
well as this weekend as subtle perturbations in the flow round the
top the ridge axis. With that being said, most locations can expect
to remain dry after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase from the west late tonight and persist through Monday,
as a shortwave traverses Mid-America. A few strong storms
capable of small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall
are possible. For now only included PROB30 groups for all TAF
sites, although later shifts will likely need to add TEMPO groups
as the time draws near for ICT, HUT, SLN, GBD, and RSL.
Additionally, gusty south winds will be common by mid-morning
Monday and persist through the afternoon, as low pressure
deepens over the High Plains.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK