811
FXUS63 KICT 121013
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
513 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions expected this week

- An active weather pattern is likely to emerge next weekend,
  bringing multiple rain chances to the area

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

As of 3 AM Monday morning, it`s a rinse and repeat in regards to the
ongoing mid and upper level pattern. A cutoff low remains parked
across the lower MS valley with ridging across the northeastern half
of the CONUS. The notable change is the arrival of a western CONUS
trough axis. Its arrival will gradually push the cutoff low
northeastward this evening and tonight. A stray shower or storm
cannot be entirely ruled out across far southeast KS but have
maintained a dry forecast today and tonight.

Transitioning into Tuesday and Wednesday, a shortwave ridge
axis will slide overhead with temperatures surging into the
upper 80s/low 90s. On the heels of the ridge axis, a shortwave
trough is progged to eject from eastern CO through northern KS
and eastern NE late Wednesday into Thursday morning. This track
of the shortwave trough will keep all precipitation north of the
forecast area, unfortunately. By Thursday morning, a Pacific
front/dryline will slide through the area, shifting winds to the
west and northwest. Beyond Thursday, there continues to be
agreement among mid to long range ensemble guidance for a more-
active weather pattern emerging this weekend into early next
week. This active period is likely to return the potential for
severe storms across the area. Latest EPS and GEFS convective
probabilities point to Sunday and next Monday for the greatest
potential for severe storms. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Upper low is expected to track from the Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Southeastern CONUS tonight into Mon. A few high clouds
from this system may affect southeast KS but will stay above
15kft. Light southeast winds are forecast through this TAF
period along with VFR conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 509 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Record High Temperature Information for May 14th:

Site:      Forecast:      Record:

Wichita      93           94 (2018)

Salina       92          101 (1941)

Chanute      89           91 (2022)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL
CLIMATE...BRF