346
FXUS63 KICT 071113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
513 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall slowly/gradually increasing from the west-southwest tonight
  through Friday night, exiting to the east-northeast Saturday
  morning.

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns possible,
  especially portions of central and south-central Kansas and
  points west-southwestward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A potent/deep upper trough approaching slowly from the west-
southwest will be the focus for increasing widespread rain and
embedded thunderstorm chances tonight through Friday night, exiting
to the east-northeast Saturday morning. As far as timing goes, model
trends continue to slow down the eastward progression of the rain,
and we decided to lean more in favor with the short-range consensus
(i.e. HREF). That said, thinking rain chances tonight will remain
mostly west of the Flint Hills, with rain chances not reaching far
eastern Kansas until probably Friday evening.

Synoptic lift and moisture transport/warm advection is anomalously
strong and deep, and precipitable waters are also unusually high for
November standards. Plus the system is fairly slow-moving. All these
ingredients should support widespread heavy rainfall, especially
west of the Flint Hills, where model probabilities for 2+
inches are greatest. Localized amounts of 3-4+ inches are
possible, especially southwest of a line extending from Great
Bend to Wichita to Arkansas City. Further east (generally along
and east of the Flint Hills), widespread amounts should be
less, ranging from 0.75-1.50 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible per model consensus.

Contemplated a Flood Watch for a handful of south-central Kansas
counties. Ultimately decided against it though, as lack of
instability should prevent rainfall rates from getting out of hand,
and RFC flash flood guidance is modest to high. These elements
should prevent widespread flooding concerns, with flooding concerns
probably more localized and confined to low-lying and flood-
prone locations. Additionally, this meager instability should
prevent any severe thunderstorm threat.

Temperatures look mostly seasonable through the weekend, although
below average temperatures are likely Friday due to clouds and
precipitation. Early to mid next week should warm back up to above
average levels, as a southerly winds increases ahead of another deep
trough approaching from the west. This trough and associated cold
front could bring a quick round of showers/thunderstorms to eastern
Kansas sometime Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening, although
quite a bit of model spread exists regarding this time period. Stay
tuned for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Currently, VFR conditions are prevailing across most of the
area, and should this way continue through at least 02-04Z
tonight.

Widespread showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will
slowly creep eastward tonight and early Friday morning into
portions of central and south-central Kansas. By 12Z, widespread
showers should be along and west of a KSLN-KICT-KWLD line. In
general, MVFR conditions are expected in areas experience rainy
conditions, although lower vis and cig cats are possible later
Friday morning. In general, winds will generally remain out of
the east to northeast at around 5 to 10 knots through much of
the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC