943
FXUS63 KICT 091922
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
222 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and dry conditions will lead to very high to near-extreme
grassland fire danger Monday.

- Relatively quiet mid-week.

- Very strong system to enter the region on Friday with very
  strong winds and significant fire weather concerns possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Analyzing water vapor satellite imagery, a weakening deep-layer
trough is departing eastward into the southeastern CONUS. Meanwhile,
ridging across the Desert Southwest is beginning to nose into the
central plains promoting dry and warmer conditions for today.
Throughout the next day or so, upper flow should become stronger and
more zonal over the Rockies and central plains. This will promote
the development of a lee cyclone across the High Plains, and the
resultant tighter pressure gradient across the region will allow for
breezy southwest winds to dominate the region Monday afternoon. With
downsloping winds out of the southwest, wouldn`t be surprised to see
warmer temperatures and lower dewpoints than what most short-term
models show. We elected to nudge afternoon temps up and dewpoints
down in the afternoon hours to compensate. All in all, temperatures
in the upper 70s, relative humidity values around 10-25%, and very
dry fuels will accompany southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph to
support very high to near-extreme grassland fire danger through much
of the afternoon and evening hours on Monday, particularly along and
west of the Flint Hills.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, a couple of weak frontal boundaries pass
through the area which will bring milder temperatures to much of the
region. However, weather conditions will be relatively quiet. A few
clouds are possible Wednesday, but any precipitation should be well
off to the south and east of the forecast area.

An approaching power system will start to make its presence known as
soon as Thursday with increasing southerly winds expected to
commence Thursday afternoon. However, most of the
impacts (potentially) are expected to be felt on Friday. First,
let`s break down the modeled anomalies for the system expected to
arrive on Friday. Both the EPS and GEFS are showing (and have
consistently been showing) near record low MSLP, and a near 100%
probability of 500 mb geopotential heights being lower than the
0.5th percentile. In other words, a potentially extreme event is
likely to take place across much of the center of the country.
However, digging into the finer details, there is still a lot that
needs to be ironed out over the next 6 days in terms of potential
impacts for central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. At this
time, wind and fire would be the biggest concerns for us. The higher
confidence in strong non-thunderstorm winds is generally along and
southeast of the Turnpike, but small shifts over the next few days
will change where the highest impacts will be. Stay tuned to the
forecast over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours across central,
south-central, and southeast Kansas. Southwesterly winds will
become breezy/gusty by around midday Monday, as low pressure
deepens over the High Plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Very high grassland fire danger will be in place Monday across
most of the area with dangerous burning conditions also expected
on Friday.

Temps on Monday are expected to be around 20 degrees above
normal as they soar into the upper 70s, which will produce
afternoon RH values in the 10 to 25% range. These dry
conditions will combine with southwest winds in the 20 to 25 mph
range, with higher gusts at times, to elevate the grassland
fire danger into the very high category across all areas.
Extreme grassland fire danger is possible for a brief period of
time across central Kansas during the afternoon hours. Outdoor
burning not recommended.

A powerful low pressure system has the potential to bring very
strong southwest winds on Friday which would likely elevate the
fire danger to at least the very high category. However,
widespread extreme grassland fire danger is becoming
increasingly likely on Friday as models continue hone in on this
system.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JC/RBL