939
FXUS63 KICT 150901
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall late Sunday through Monday

- Below normal temperatures for the second half of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

As of 3 AM Friday morning, midlevel ridging has progressed into the
central US with clear skies and temperatures in the 40s. On the
heels of this ridge axis is an amplifying midlevel trough axis
across the western CONUS. Weak, cyclonic midlevel flow has
reached the central and southern Rockies with a surface trough
currently developing from eastern NM into southern CO. This
deepening of the surface trough axis will increase the surface
pressure gradient by afternoon with southerly wind gusts near 30
MPH expected, especially across central KS. These southerly
winds will usher in temperatures in the mid 60s this afternoon.

Transitioning into Saturday, the aforementioned midlevel trough
will dig into the Baja region with continued deepening of the
surface trough axis across the High Plains. This will continue
the gusty south winds near 30 MPH. A stray shower cannot be
ruled out, especially during the late afternoon and evening as
low-level WAA continues with a gradual moistening of the column.
Any activity should remain quite isolated with most areas
staying dry.

Big changes are in-store by Sunday evening through Monday, as the
anomalously strong midlevel trough further advances toward the
Plains. Latest deterministic and ensemble data continue to align
with a unusually moist environment advecting into central and
eastern KS late Sunday into Monday. ECMWF ensemble mean PW
values are progged to range from 1.25 inches across central KS
to near 1.75" across southern KS by midday Monday. These PW
values are quite rare for mid to late November and is conveyed
with these values being in the 4 to 5 standard deviation range.
Large scale ascent will increase late Sunday as subtle height
falls overspread the Plains with an initial speed max
translating across the area. The combination of these two
forcing mechanisms should yield at least scattered showers
during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. Much stronger
forcing for ascent arrives Monday morning into Monday afternoon
as the trough axis takes on a negative tilt and tracks from west
TX through eastern KS. The trough axis will depart the area by
Tuesday morning. Widespread, beneficial rainfall is expected
with most areas likely to receive 1-3".

Quickly on the heels of the previous trough axis will be another
shortwave trough. Available moisture will be quite limited with this
shortwave trough and widespread precipitation appears unlikely.
Otherwise, the latter half of next week will be accompanied by
below normal temperatures with daytime highs in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 852 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours.

The main aviation concern the next 24 hours will be increasing
stout/gusty southeasterly winds by around midday Friday,
especially over the western three-fourths of Kansas, as High
Plains lee troughing deepens. Gusts up to around 25-30 kts are
likely, strongest generally along/west of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...ADK