404
FXUS63 KICT 281730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High to very high fire danger this afternoon

- Showers and storms Sunday - Sunday night

- Showers/storms Tuesday; Wintry mix possible Tuesday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

As of 230 AM Friday morning, northwesterly midlevel flow was present
across central and northern Plains with a shortwave trough diving
across the Great Lakes region. An attendant surface trough axis
extends from northern MN through southwestern SD. Transitioning into
the daytime hours today, surface winds will gradually veer to the
west with the approaching trough axis and then ultimately to the
northwest. Downslope flow during the late morning and early
afternoon will contribute to temperatures surging near 70 for most
locations with southern KS approaching 75. The airmass across
western KS/NE is quite dry with dew points in the single digits and
teens. This dry airmass will initially spread across portions of
central KS later this morning before the cold front shunts the
driest air to the southwest of the forecast area. By afternoon dew
points in the 20s will be common across much of the area. In
addition, short range forecast guidance is quite consistent with the
strongest low-level winds approaching the I-70 corridor after 3
PM with gusts between 25-30 MPH likely. The strongest winds
will be short lived as diurnal cooling will subside gusts with
sunset. As such, the duration of very high fire danger is 3-5
hours across central KS. Temperatures will tumble back into the
low to mid 30s by Saturday morning.

Shortwave midlevel ridging will overspread the region Saturday into
Sunday ahead of the next shortwave trough. This will allow
temperatures to rebound into the 50s Saturday afternoon. This
shortwave trough will lift across the forecast area Sunday into
Sunday night. This should yield an area of rainfall overspreading
the area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Midlevel lapse
rates are progged to steepen up to 8 C/km late Sunday, which could
allow for a few thunderstorms as well.

Southwesterly midlevel flow will persist into early next week ahead
of an even stronger midlevel trough poised to eject into the
central/southern Plains Tuesday. This will set the stage for
multiple weather concerns Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. To
begin with, a surface low will emerge across southeast CO early
Tuesday morning and progress eastward into the afternoon. By early
afternoon this surface low is progged to be located in the vicinity
of north central OK or south central KS. A sharp dryline will extend
south from the low. Depending on its exact location, fire weather
concerns may increase Tuesday afternoon for mainly south central KS.
Next, strong WAA ahead of the surface low will usher in dew points
in the 50s or low 60s across southeast KS. This may support
thunderstorm development along the dryline Tuesday afternoon.
Finally, deformation precipitation is expected on the backside of
the midlevel trough Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a
majority of the area. Thermal profiles may cool enough for a
rain/snow mix as well. Stay tuned.

Midlevel ridging will build across the central US for the middle of
next week. This will set the stage for quiet weather and
temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Winds
have started to increase and shift to the northwest. Northwest
winds will gust up to 25 kts with the strongest gusts at RSL,
GBD, and SLN. Wind speeds will diminish around sunset. Winds
will start to shift to the east after 10z, mainly at RSL, GBD,
and HUT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Very high fire danger is expected this afternoon across mainly
central KS. Afternoon humidity values are forecast to drop near 20
percent. A cold front will shift winds from the west to the
northwest by midday with the strongest winds arriving to central KS
after 3-4 PM when gusts up to 30 MPH are possible. Fortunately this
overlap of strong winds and low humidity is only expected for 3-5
hours as wind speeds will rapidly decrease with sunset this
evening.

High to very high fire danger is possible Sunday as low humidity and
gusty south winds overlap across mainly central and south central
KS. Additional fire weather concerns increase Tuesday afternoon as a
strong storm system moves into the central Plains.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...GC
FIRE WEATHER...BRF