331
FXUS63 KICT 072356
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
556 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle tonight across southeast Kansas, with fog likely
  across central and south central Kansas.

- Dry and cool this weekend.

- Increasing confidence in accumulating snowfall across the area
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts strong zonal flow aloft
over a majority of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure situated
over Illinois has allowed for southerly flow throughout the Plains.

TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...

BUFKIT soundings highlight the potential for drizzle (and perhaps a
few showers) tonight in southeast Kansas given saturation depths of
3-4 kft and broad isentropic ascent through the moist layer. Further
west, saturation appears a bit shallow for drizzle and instead
favors the development of fog, especially in locations along and
west of I-135. There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how
dense this will be, especially if current cloud cover is unable to
fully erode by nightfall. Therefore, decided against issuing a Dense
Fog Advisory for now and will allow for the evening shift to issue
as trends become realized.

A cold front will make its way through the forecast area tomorrow
and result in afternoon highs near to below normal through the
weekend. With a relatively strong surface high behind it, breezy
winds are expected with gusts up to 30 mph likely in central and
south central Kansas through the afternoon hours on Saturday.
However, no active weather is expected with the passage of this
boundary.

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...

Models continue to agree on the arrival of mid/upper forcing for a
weather system Monday through Tuesday. Current guidance suggests
this would be an all-snow event with relatively light accumulations
given modest frontogenetical forcing. Better chances for moderate
snow accumulations arrive on Wednesday as a deeper trough approaches
the Central Plains and mesoscale forcing strengthens. Confidence
remains low on exact snowfall totals, though the NBM favors central
Kansas for the highest accumulations at this time. Stay tuned as
additional information becomes available.

Exceptionally cold air is anticipated to follow in the wake of this
upcoming system, with afternoon highs expected to reach into the
teens and 20s on Wednesday and Thursday. Toward Valentines Day,
models appear to support a slight warming trend, though this will
likely depend on any snowpack that would keep temperatures cooler
than currently advertised.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A hole within the MVFR cloud deck has developed across central
Kansas this evening which has allowed RSL, GBD, HUT, and SLN to
temporarily clear out this evening. Meanwhile ICT and CNU
continue to remain under the MVFR ceilings. This area that has
cleared out will see VFR conditions for a few hours at the start
of this TAF period but rapid fog and LIFR ceiling development
is expected as surface temperatures cool this evening and
overnight. A cold front will arrive early on Saturday shifting
winds to the northwest and helping to mix out the low ceilings
during the morning hours. Northwest winds will become breezy
with gusts to around 30 kts possible however these winds will
begin to subside towards the end of this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...WI