148
FXUS63 KICT 302301
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
601 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers/thunderstorms tonight into early
  Monday, mainly over the northern half of Kansas.

- Triple digit heat indices return for Monday and Tuesday.

- Active weather pattern continues from late Tuesday through
  early Friday, including the chance for strong to severe storms
  and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

TONIGHT-MONDAY MORNING...Increasing warm advection and moisture
transport in the 850-650 mb layer in response to subtle mid-level
energy approaching across the Central High Plains should allow for
increasing thunderstorm chances after about midnight. Most guidance
supports the highest chances over generally the northern half of
Kansas, although thinking lift is sufficient for at least isolated
activity as far south as southern KS or northern OK.
Instability/shear combination isn`t overly impressive, so thinking
hail threat should remain mostly below severe levels. However,
continued above average precipitable waters near 2 inches will
support locally intense rainfall rates. Activity should exit east
into northeast Kansas Monday morning.

MONDAY AFTERNOON--THURSDAY NIGHT...The heat and humidity build back
north across the region for Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon
through early evening heat indices climbing into the 100-108 degree
range. Will hoist a heat advisory for Monday, and suspect we`ll
eventually need one for Tuesday as well. Additionally, model
consensus progresses a front south into the region by late Tuesday,
and stalls it across the region through late week. This, along with
a few seasonably strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic
thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through Thursday
night or early Friday. A seasonable combination of instability and
deep layer shear should support strong to severe storm chances,
along with locally heavy rainfall.

FRIDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports
somewhat cooler and mostly dry weather by next Friday-Saturday, with
lower dewpoints and seasonably cool to below average temperatures,
as upper troughing deepens over the central and eastern CONUS. By
Saturday night--Sunday, model consensus supports a return to
thunderstorm chances, as shortwave energy traverses the central and
northern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Southeast winds will prevail tonight with a line of
showers/storms possibly affecting parts of central Kansas late
tonight into Monday morning. Low clouds in MVFR category will
develop over central Kansas late tonight into Monday morning.
South winds will increase across central and south central
Kansas during the day on Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ