064
FXUS63 KICT 301114
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
514 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Single digit wind chills this morning with high temperatures
  15-20 degrees below normal today.

- Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Monday for areas
  along and north of Highway 50 as accumulating snowfall is
  likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level shortwave trough
moving into the Middle Mississippi Valley with zonal flow aloft in
our area. An additional upper-level trough is digging into the
northwestern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has moved into the
Northern Plains. In our area, northerly winds persist with much
colder air surging south. Temperatures have dropped into the teens
and lower 20s which is 10-15 degrees below normal. As we move
towards sunrise, wind chills will continue to drop into the single
digits across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will follow
suit and be 15-20 degrees below normal. Highs will generally
struggle to reach above freezing with the upper 20s forecast for
central KS and low 30s in south-central to southeast KS.

Tonight, the aforementioned upper-level trough over the northwestern
CONUS will continue to dig and move southeast into the Central
Rockies by Monday morning. This trough will move across our area on
Monday, increasing snowfall chances. Snow is forecast to start
Monday morning in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, as lift
increases from the upper-trough coupled with the left exit region of
upper jet. Given the increased lift generally falls in the DGZ, this
can lead to efficient snowfall rates. Additionally, these features
combined with increased low-level WAA and 850 mb frontogenesis could
lead to a heavier band of snow developing in central KS. Therefore,
the heaviest snowfall is likely Monday morning. The HREF generally
has 60% probability of greater than 2 inches of snow in central KS
with NBM probabilities between 30-50%. As the upper low moves
southeast into the Mississippi Valley with the low-level trough,
snow chances will shift into eastern Kansas and Missouri. General
snowfall amounts outside the heavier band will likely be in the 0.5
to 1" range across central to south-central KS. Given surface winds
will be between 5-10 mph, blowing snow will be less of a concern,
but reduced visibility is likely in the heavier snow band. HREF
is showing probabilities between 60-75% of less than a mile
visibility due to snowfall rates. All of this to say, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for areas along and north of
Highway 50.

Tuesday and beyond... The next upper-level trough is progged to dig
into the northwestern CONUS on Tuesday then move into the
southwestern CONUS on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF forecast this
trough to shift towards the Central Rockies late Thursday night.
This system could bring the next round of precipitation to the area
Thursday night into Friday, though confidence is not high at this
time. Outside of precipitation, temperatures will remain below
normal throughout the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs, however some lower
cigs will begin to spread into central Kansas late tonight.
This is when light snow could begin to fall over central Kansas as
a upper level weather system approaches from the west.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ