978
FXUS63 KICT 191144
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms throughout the weekend; highest rain amounts
  across southeast KS

- A few strong to severe storms possible Sunday across southeast
  Kansas

- Cool through the weekend; warming trend next week

- More shower and storm chances next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across south-central and
southeast Kansas early this morning. Warm moist advection is
expected to continue around 700 mb especially across far south-
central and southeast Kansas through the day today hence showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to persist through most of the
day although it won`t be raining the entire time. Under mostly
cloudy skies (except for portions of central Kansas where partly
sunny skies are expected) temperatures will remain on the cool side
today only warming into the 50s. Broad scale lift will begin to
increase late tonight as a trough approaches the region and begins
to take on a negative tilt. This should lead to an increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage across most of the area by late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

A surface low will strengthen across Oklahoma early Sunday morning
and gradually lift north through the morning hours. This should
allow a warm front to lift back into southeast Kansas with some
destabilization possible into the late morning and early afternoon.
Meanwhile to the north and northwest of the low a band of stratiform
rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms will keep central and
portions of south-central Kansas soggy through the early afternoon.
There still remains some uncertainty in regards to how much
destabilization can occur on Sunday, although with the overall
dynamics of this system a few strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible but will quickly spread to the northeast and out of our
forecast area by mid afternoon. The surface low will continue to
shift to the northeast Sunday afternoon and bring an end to the
precipitation from southwest to northeast by the evening hours.

Overall precipitation forecast has not changed much with the
heaviest precipitation still expected over southeast Kansas where
the Flood Watch remains in effect until Sunday evening. Rainfall
probabilities still show portions of southeast Kansas with a 50-80
percent chance of exceeding two inches of additional rainfall by
Sunday evening. The total range of rainfall probabilities can be
found on our webpage under the Local Programs tab and then
Probabilistic QPF.

We will clear out on Monday as shortwave ridging moves across the
Northern Plains with high temperatures rebounding back into the 70s
with the warmest temperatures expected across central Kansas.
However this drier weather won`t last long, as the upper-level
pattern quickly becomes zonal and then southwesterly by mid-week.
This will allow several impulses to cross the Plains through the
week leading to additional shower and thunderstorm chances. While it
is too early to start ironing out exact details, surface
instability is expected to remain over Kansas through the week, hence
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are coming to an end early
this morning across Kansas. In the wake of this rain, MVFR to
IFR ceilings are developing across southeast and south central
Kansas mainly impacting CNU, however ICT may also see brief
periods of MVFR ceilings right around 3000 ft AGL. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will return to southern Kansas late this
morning and early afternoon and primarily impact CNU and ICT
but these showers will gradually expand northward through the
night and become more numerous. This evening ceilings will also
steadily lower with MVFR ceilings this evening eventually
becoming IFR ceilings area wide by late tonight. Periods of
heavy rainfall will be possible this evening and overnight
mainly at CNU. Winds will remain out of the north and northeast
through this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...WI