053
FXUS64 KHUN 081904
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
204 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Forecast remains on track this afternoon as temperatures have
warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values
between 100-104 in most locations. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed over the last hour and continue to
slowly push eastward. Main concern has been gusty winds and
torrential rainfall. Radar estimates show 1-2 inch per hour rain
rates with the deeper convection. Outflow boundaries will be a key
to watch where any new convection initiates later today. Training
of storms over the same location could lead to flash flooding
given the high rain rates.

Tonight, any remaining thunderstorms this evening will slowly
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Overall a tranquil
night is expected with lows dipping down into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Only concern tonight is the low to medium chance for
fog, especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

As the aformentioned upper level trough axis shifts east it will
bring a slow moving frontal boundary over the Tennessee Valley
during the short term forecast period. Medium to high (60-80%)
chances for showers and storms is forecast both Wednesday and
Thursday. This will limit the amount of afternoon heating with
highs only expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Once again
widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but a few storms
could become strong and capable of gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Pwats are forecast to be between 1.75-2 inches, which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year, therefore flash
flooding will be something to keep an eye on as we head through
Thursday. As a result, the WPC placed the entire forecast area
within a Marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for excessive rainfall
that could result in flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The area will remain in moist environment as we go into the
weekend and early next week. This will keep chances for more daily
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A similar setup to Wed
and Thu should continue to close out the week, with mainly
afternoon convection and early evening showers and storms. High
temperatures Friday and Saturday should range in the mid 80s to
around 90, with 60-70 percent rain chances. Rain chances should be
lower (around 50 percent) on Sunday and Monday, as mean troughing
begins retreating to the north and upper ridging slowly builds
back. Lesser rain chances and a little more direct sun should help
high temperatures rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period
with light and variable winds. The lone exception is within any
thunderstorms that form over the terminals. Therefore added a
tempo group for this afternoon given the HSV obs are already
noting TCU. Better chance tomorrow late morning and have included
that within a prob 30 group due to some timing and coverage
uncertainty.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH