654
FXUS64 KHUN 100024
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
624 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

It`ll continue to be muggy and cloudy tonight as a surface cold
front approaches and moisture from Tropical Storm Rafael
(currently over the west-central Gulf of Mexico) is advected up
through the ArkLaMiss region and into the Tennessee Valley. Medium
to high chances (60-90%) of showers and perhaps a couple storms
are forecast along and west of I-65 as well as southern middle
Tennessee this evening and tonight. Low to medium (30-60%) chances
are then anticipated east of I-65 over northeast Alabama. The
elevated moisture, cloud cover, and rain chances will also result
in lows merely dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s later
tonight.

Guidance shows PWATs increasing to between 1.8-2.0 inches along
and west of I-65 this evening and between 1.4-1.8 inches east of
I-65. Model PWATs then decrease to between 1.5-1.7 inches west of
I-65 and 1.3-1.5 inches east late tonight; however, these ranges
are near or above the 90th percentile for sounding climatology for
this time of year (when looking at BMX). Thus, showers will be
efficient rainfall producers, especially this evening, and bring
the potential for an inch or more of rainfall for locations west
of I-65 by early Sunday morning. Hi-Res guidance suggests there is
a low to medium chance (30-50%) that northwest Alabama could see
over an inch of rain and a low chance (20-30%) these areas see
over 2 inches of rain. The Weather Prediction Center also has
northwest Alabama in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall tonight.
Be safe if traveling tonight - if you come upon flooded roads,
turn around, don`t drown!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

As the aforementioned cold front inches closer to the Tennessee
Valley, medium to high (45-80%) chances of showers will continue
through the day on Sunday, along with low chances (15-30%) of
thunderstorms along and west of I-65. While model bulk shear is
shown to reach around 40 knots, instability will be meager.
Therefore, severe weather is not anticipated. Furthermore, the
threat of heavy rainfall/flooding is lower on Sunday compared to
tonight, as additional rainfall from Sunday through Sunday night
has a low to medium chance (10-40%) of exceeding half an inch. WPC
only has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for the Tennessee
Valley as well.

Rain chances will begin to taper Monday morning and cease by
Monday evening as the surface cold front traverses and passes to
the southeast of the region. For those waiting for a cooldown,
this FROPA will bring slightly cooler temperatures, at least at
night. Lows Sunday night are forecast to be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s, then lows are expected to dip into the mid 40s to
around 50 degrees Monday night. Although, highs will remain in the
lower to mid 70s both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1244 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Large dome of high pressure at the sfc remains layered across much
of the Atlantic states going into the latter half of the forecast
period. An upper ridge pattern will also continue to translate east
over much of the eastern CONUS going into the middle of next week.
While dry wx conditions may linger Tue into early Wed, another cold
front approaching from the west coupled with a gradual increase in
moisture will allow low chances for showers (around 20%) to return
during the day Wed. These rain chances may climb more into the 30-40%
range Wed night as the front moves eastward thru the region, before
rainfall quickly tapers off to the east Thu morning with the passage
of the front. Some weak instability may also allow for a few tstms
across NW AL Wed evening. This next cold front should at least usher
some slightly cooler air into the central TN Valley, as highs in the
lower 70s/near 70F Tue/Wed trend more in the mid/upper 60s Thu/Fri.
Overnight lows Tue/Wed nights look to trend in the upper 40s/Thu,
before lows fall more into the lower/mid 40s Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Current radar data suggests that pockets of lgt-mod RA will
continue to spread north-northeastward across the region early
this evening, warranting prevailing SHRA in TAFMSL and a TEMPO
group for -SHRA in TAFHSV. However, with time, the greatest
concentration of precipitation will shift to NW AL, and an
additional TEMPO group for -SHRA has been included at MSL from
4-8Z. Intermittent periods of very light rain may continue during
the early morning hours Sunday and throughout the second half of
the TAF period, but substantial chances for rain will likely not
evolve again until 20-22Z at MSL as a weak cold front begins to
approach the TN Valley from the west. Although the precipitation
this evening will occur with VFR cigs and only minor reductions in
vsby, the base of the stratus layer will likely descend to MVFR
levels by 8Z (potentially as low as 1500 ft AGL btwn 10-14Z) and
should remain in this range thru 11/0Z. Lgt ESE sfc winds will
veer to SSE and strengthen to 10G18 kts by 4Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...70/DD