244
FXUS64 KHUN 300740
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
240 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

A combination of the recent rainfall across the area, light winds
and partly clear skies have resulted in the development of fog and
very low clouds across Northern Alabama and Southern Middle
Tennessee. Some observation sites have already dropped below 1/4
mile visibility. Therefore a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect
for our entire forecast area until 8am. Low clouds and fog will
quickly mix out shortly after sunrise.

As for the rest of today, a surface low pressure system continues
to meander across TN/KY this morning. A quick moving shortwave
trough is forecast to sweep through the area this afternoon. While
the overall forcing with this feature is weak, CAMs continue to
show isolated showers developing later today. Hence, a low chance
PoP (15%) was added to account for this. Rainfall amounts will be
only be a few hundredths of an inch at most. Outside of this low
rain chance, a mix of sun and clouds is anticipated with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Another ideal setup for fog is forecast for tonight with light
winds and moisture at the surface from all the recent rainfall. It
is unclear at this time how widespread or dense fog will be and
is something we will need to watch heading into the overnight
hours.

By Tuesday, an upper level trough axis pushes to the east into GA.
This will finally kick the stalled low pressure to our north off
to the east. As a result, skies gradually clear through the day
resulting in an overall beautiful start to October. Afternoon
highs Tuesday and Wednesday return to the lower 80s, which is near
climatological normals for this time of year. Overnight lows are
expected to dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

A zonal flow should remain in place along the United States and
Canadian border. This northward displacement of the main polar jet
was being produced by upper ridging building in from the south.
Higher heights with broad ridging aloft should make for warmer
conditions as we close out the work week. High temperatures for both
Thur/Fri should warm into the mid 80s. A dry cold front should move
across the area late Friday, bringing slightly cooler conditions to
the area for the weekend, with highs in the lower 80s.

Some of the models, particularly the GFS and to a lesser extent the
ECMWF were showing tropical moisture working inland, and bringing
this area lower end rain chances on Friday. The tropics are more
active, with medium range guidance hinting at possible development in
the Gulf and/or Caribbean this weekend. The models however were less
bullish on a single system forming; suggesting that strong shear
could play a role in suppressing development. A more eastward
trajectory of shower activity from the Gulf, rather than northward
were becoming more apparent. This plus a dry airmass in place should
lead to another dry forecast for the late week and weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

A combination of low clouds and fog is expected to impact the
terminals through the overnight hours with flight conditions
gradually worsening through daybreak. Dense fog is possible and
may result in visibility reductions down to 1/2sm or less. Even
if fog does not develop, LIFR ceilings are forecast. After sunrise
fog and clouds should dissipate resulting in light winds and VFR
conditions through the remainder of the TAF cycle.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ001>010-
     016.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH