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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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044 FXUS64 KHUN 301359 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 859 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 859 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Billow clouds are blanketing portions of northeastern AL and southern middle Tennessee, preventing showers from intensifying as we remain capped this morning. As we move into the late morning to afternoon, we expect these to erode with diurnal heating and storms to form. An upper level ridge is continuing to strengthen as it moves over the south-central CONUS. Ahead of a shortwave trough set to move through portions of the TN Valley tonight, a cold front is forecast to bring medium to high chances of showers (40-75%) with a medium chance of producing lightning this afternoon into the early evening. Similarly to yesterday, PWATs are likely around 2" this morning as BMX`s observed 12Z sounding was 1.86" and OHX`s 12Z sounding was 2.31". Model PWATs this afternoon are between 2-2.2" across the TN Valley. This is above the 90th percentile sounding climatology per BMX and OHX- proving any shower that forms today to be an efficient rainfall producer. Storm motion is also forecast to be slower (less than 15 kts), contributing to ponding of water during times of heavy rainfall in areas of poor drainage. Due to very weak shear, confidence in severe storms is low today. However, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and lightning remain medium threats. Our highest concern today is heat. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM CDT this evening throughout all of northern AL and portions of southern middle TN for heat indices up to 109 expected. We encourage everyone to drink plenty of water (even if you do not feel thirsty), stay out of the sun if possible, and check on relatives/neighbors. This level of heat will especially impact individuals sensitive to heat and those without effective cooling systems and/or adequate hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to strengthen and push eastward over the Southeast through Tuesday. The surface cold front will move southward, with high pressure building in behind it over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and down into the Tennessee Valley through Monday night. The high looks to then begin to shift east on Tuesday. Some lingering showers are possible early this evening but, beyond that, no rain is anticipated through Tuesday night. Drier air will be filtered into the region in the wake of the cold front, allowing for somewhat cooler temperatures and lower dew points on Monday. After lows in the mid to upper 60s for most areas tonight, highs are forecast to only reach the mid to upper 80s on Monday. Lows Monday night are then expected to drop into the lower to mid 60s for many locations, with some upper 60s over northeast Alabama. This cooldown will be short-lived, as temperatures will warm right back up into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night will also be warm, with most places only falling into the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The previously mentioned upper ridge is shown to persist through midweek, but begin to flatten by Thursday night as a shortwave trough makes its way over the north-central CONUS and into the Great Lakes region. This feature looks to amplify somewhat down through Texas on Saturday and push the ridge east over the Carolinas. The surface high will push off the eastern seaboard and also be stretched down over the Deep South from midweek through the first part of the weekend. Meanwhile, a low pressure system looks to move towards the Great Lakes region on Saturday, with an associated cold front traversing the Mississippi Valley. For sensible weather, expect a return of shower and storm chances by midweek. Low chances (15-25%) of showers and storms are forecast on Wednesday then become medium (50-60%) by Friday afternoon. Low to medium (30-50%) chances of showers/storms then round out the week for Saturday. While guidance suggests ample instability through the period, shear is meager through at least Friday. However, shear looks to increase to around 20-25 knots on Saturday, which could mean the potential for some stronger storms. Ultimately, as this is at the tail end of the forecast time frame, we will just keep an eye on trends for now. We will also keep an eye on temperatures, as highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s Wednesday through Friday. With elevated moisture returning to the region during this time, this will result in heat indices in the triple digits (100-108 degrees Thursday and Friday especially). Highs then looks to be a touch cooler on Saturday, but it will still be hot. Lows from mid to late week are also forecast to range in the lower to mid 70s each night for much of the area. We will continue to monitor these trends for the potential of needing to issue heat products. Regardless, please be safe in the heat this summer. Take frequent breaks in the shade, wear loose-fitting and light-colored clothing, and stay hydrated! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 No big changes from the previous forecast. VFR conditions, light winds, and no rain were reported at the terminals at issuance; but, rain chances will increase through the morning hours, peaking this afternoon. Heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds are all possible; however, severe weather is not anticipated. Slight reductions in VIS and CIGs are likely in the heavier showers/storms. Rain chances dwindle through early this evening, with no rain by mid to late evening. Expecting winds to become northerly this afternoon and increase to between 5-10 knots. After decreasing to around 5 knots for a brief time this evening, winds may increase to between 5-10 knots once again later tonight. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...26