895
FXUS64 KHUN 272250
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
550 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

As sfc high pressure filters in from the east, dry weather
continues overnight. However, cloud cover is forecast to increase
ahead of an upper level shortwave as it continues to move closer
towards the area, into the lower Mississippi Valley, from the
west. Low temperatures overnight are forecast to drop into the
upper 40s to mid 50s, with warmer temperatures remaining mostly
west of I-65 where cloud cover will move in sooner.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

The aforementioned shortwave trough continues to move through the
lower Mississippi Valley, bringing Gulf moisture and subsequent cloud
cover to northern AL and southern middle TN. While temperatures
are currently forecast to reach the upper 70s, there is a chance
these are a few degrees too high if cloud cover remains dense
throughout the day. Low shower chances (20-30%) are forecast to
return to the area Friday night into Saturday as the shortwave
trough lifts northeastward.

Shower/thunderstorm chances increase Saturday afternoon into the
evening hours (30-55%) as low instability will be available for
thunderstorm formation. However, strong/severe storms are not
forecast at this time. This will, however, be something to keep an
eye on as far as how much rainfall we receive ahead of Sunday
evening/Monday morning`s severe event. If we receive over 1.5
inches of rainfall, this could increase our flash flooding threat
Sunday night into Monday in those areas.

A lull is forecast Sunday morning before thunderstorms return the
forecast Sunday evening/overnight, however, low chances of showers
remain in the forecast during this time (~20-30%) ahead of the
cold front as there is a low chance we could see pre-frontal
showers ahead of the main risk of strong/severe storms. More
details on the system of concern will be in the long term section
below, however, we encourage everyone to check back in for updates
as we approach the weekend as we work on refining timing and
hazards for the event.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

The main focus for this forecast will be on another system or
series of smaller shortwaves moving through late Sunday into
Monday that could result in strong to severe storms over portions
of the TN Valley and Deep South. There are still a lot of
questions regarding the trajectory of this system as well as the
timing, and that will have large impacts on the ingredients needed
for severe storms. The current timing looks to be late Sunday
into Monday morning, but the latest guidance suggests the storm
system could be slowing down to be a primarily Monday morning
event for us. There are still questions regarding whether or not
there will be a favorable overlap of shear and instability when
the cold front moves through Monday morning, as the cold front is
expected to be the main source of lift for these storms. This
system will bear watching as we head closer to the weekend, so
stay tuned for updates.

Extended guidance favors a warm and active pattern for us heading
through the middle part of next week, with highs mostly in the 70s
and low (20-30%) chances for showers/storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some mid level
CIGS and wind shear will affect the terminals between 07Z and 10Z.
Otherwise, southeast to southerly winds between 5 and 10 knot
with gusts between 10 and 15 knots at times and high CIGS are
expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwest portions of
Alabama in a Moderate risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation for
April 4th-6th. Precipitation exceeding 2 inches are possible during
this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW