943
FXUS64 KHUN 071132
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
632 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

RGB Nighttime satellite shows that some light fog has developed in
the valleys, however mid level cloud cover is sliding in thus will
hamper any widespread development.

Bottom Line Up Front: Strong to severe storms are expected this
afternoon with another round overnight tonight. Damaging winds and
hail are the primary concerns, along with heavy rainfall
producing flooding and a low chance for a tornado. Stay weather
aware and have more than one way to get your weather information
and warnings, both day and night.

The Short Term discussion below lays out well what we are
anticipating for later today. Severe storms are already ongoing
across the ArkLaTex and is what we will be monitoring to bring
our afternoon round of strong to severe storms across the TN
Valley. What has changed since the last forecast package is that
SPC expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to include the
entire TN Valley, and they expanded the damaging wind and hail
outlooks farther northward as well.

Timing remains on track for the first round of storms today with a
most likely time of Noon to 2pm for NW AL, 1-3pm for the I-65
corridor and 2-4pm for NE AL. There will be a break after this
round before the overnight storms arrive. Take that time to ensure
you have ways to get warnings overnight and check the weather
before bed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Aside from isolated showers meandering across the area overnight, all
eyes turn to the risk of strong/severe storms expected for the CWFA
during the day tomorrow, with another round of storms overnight
Saturday into Sunday.

An MCS is forming well W/NW of the local area overnight tonight,
spawning E of the Rockies and pushing into the Central Plains/Mid MS
Valley by early Saturday morning. It`s this feature that will be
responsible for our shot at strong/severe storms tomorrow, with a
heightened risk for damaging winds painted just to our SW across
portions of Central MS/AL. Where the MCV associated with this
activity eventually treks will provide the highest risk of damaging
winds in the areas of overlapping instability and 40-50kts ~850mb.
Some further clarification of mesoscale features by sunrise will give
a much better idea of exactly where this corridor lies and is a bit
of a fly in the ointment so to speak tonight. Elsewhere, the threat
for damaging winds is the greatest threat overall, followed by large
hail (though we didn`t see too much of this earlier today). Though
tornadoes are not expected to be widespread, the more organized
severe storms may produce bowing segments, owing to the bulk of the
tornado threat (should one or two occur tomorrow).

Timing for this activity is beginning in the mid to late morning
hours tomorrow, and transitioning E to early afternoon along the I-65
corridor, and into the mid/late afternoon hours for NE AL/Srn Middle
TN.

This won`t be the only round of storms tomorrow as the shortwave
begins to strengthen across the region on Saturday evening, as the
shortwave trough responsible for the midday round takes on a
negative-tilt and advances northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes.
This will likely support redevelopment of thunderstorm clusters both
along trailing outflow (related to any MCS development during the
afternoon) and along a weak cold front that will extend southwestward
from a deepening area of low pressure across IL/IN. The potential
exists for multiple rounds thunderstorms from Saturday evening-early
Sunday morning, and although instability will diminish nocturnally, a
risk for locally damaging wind gusts will continue. The risk for
flash flooding will also increase significantly during this period,
as PWAT values may rise into the 1.8-2" range.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ending from NW-to-SE
after sunrise Sunday morning, as the cold front slips
southeastward and veers low-level flow to WNW. Although this may
allow a slightly drier airmass to advect into portions of the
region north of the TN River, and additional shower or storm may
occur across our southeastern zones through Sunday afternoon if
the front moves slower than indicated. Dry conditions are
anticipated Sunday night as high pressure will build into the
region from the north, with lows falling back into the l-m 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The upper ridge axis will begin to shift off to the northeast on
Tuesday and the Tennessee Valley will become more under the influence
of high pressure. Rain chances will remain low and confined mainly to
areas south of the TN River during the mid-week period as a stalled
sfc boundary sits near or south of the Birmingham area. Temperatures
will also be on the lower side Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in
the low to mid 80s and lows near the mid 60s. Upper ridging will move
in toward the late week period and will result in both rising
temperatures and thunderstorm chances as we head toward the weekend.
As of now, no severe thunderstorms are expected as synoptic forcing
remains week, but diurnal heating alone may provide enough
instability to result in a strong storm or two each afternoon. Stay
tuned for updates as we head closer to next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

That has been light fog development where VIS is still VFR,
otherwise VFR conditions will persist into this afternoon until
showers and thunderstorms develop. After the first round of
storms, there will be a break where a few showers could pop up,
however the second wave of storms will arrive overnight around
06Z. Storms could be strong to severe, creating MVFR to IFR
conditions at times when terminal is directly impacted. Once the
second round of convection moves out, low clouds will remain til
the end of the TAF period.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....12
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...JMS