745
FXUS64 KHUN 101138
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
538 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 234 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

An area of low pressure south of the TX/LA border will continue
moving eastward, reaching the western Florida Panhandle by the
early evening. Cold high pressure situated over the eastern Ohio
Valley should weaken further as it heads more to the east. The
system to our SW was spreading precipitation from coastal Texas
and western Lousiana, to north of the I-40 corridor in the Mid
Mississippi region, and eastward across parts of northern MS/AL.
We have been receiving reports of sleet over parts of our southern
areas - Franklin to Cullman and Morgan counties. More reports of
sleet over parts of north/central MS. Area temperatures ranged
from mid 30s across much of northern Alabama, with 31, 30, 28 at
Ft Payne, Fayetteville and Winchester respectively.

Wintry precipitation should overspread the forecast area from the
SW as we near the morning. Air temperatures from most of the
guidance was projected to cool into the lower 30s most spots
towards daybreak. This should result in the precipitation becoming
snow with some sleet this morning. Things apparently will get
very complicated as we go into the mid morning through mid
afternoon. Some of the models, like the RAP, HRRR and NAM show a
significant intrusion of warmer air at and above 850mb, which
should result in all snow becoming a wintry mix, then all rain
this morning and afternoon. Running the NBM yielded everything
from snow, to sleet, freezing rain, and rain in this time. Liquid
precip could range as far north as the AL/TN border in the
afternoon. Precip from this system should end from west to east
during the course of the late afternoon and early evening, with it
becoming sleet and snow as it ends.

Total liquid amounts across the area should range from 1/2 to 1
inch mainly over our areas south of the Tennessee River and
near/west of I-65. Wintry precip amounts will fluctuate. Snow
amounts of 1-4 inches should occur from near/north of the Quad
Cities of NW AL to much of Limestone, northern Madison, Jackson
counties and across Lincoln, Moore, Franklin counties in TN.
Lesser amounts of snow are expected further south. But icing could
become a problem over parts of our central areas, especially the
higher elevations. Ice accumulations could near 1/4 of an inch in
spots. Winds could also be somewhat stronger in the more elevated
terrain, which could result in ice accumulations, tree branches
falling and possible power outages.

A limiting factor on icing and/or snow accumulations early are the
current temperatures in most spots in the mid 30s. The models seem
to be overplaying late night cooling. But if moderate/heavy snow
occurs, temperatures will likewise fall, and travel conditions
across the area will quickly become dangerous.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

The surface low by dusk should be moving across far southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This low should be moving
across eastern North Carolina by daybreak Saturday. Precip from
the passing system should come to an end, in a west to east
manner this evening. Temperatures across the area should fall,
bottoming out in the mid/upper 20s by sunrise Sat. Light westerly
winds this evening should pickup into the 5 mph range by the
morning. Light winds beforehand, as well as residual moisture and
subfreezing temperatures could lead to areas of freezing fog in
some spots. Otherwise with post frontal clouds hanging on, high
temperatures later on Sat should only rise into the mid 30s.

Clouds should decrease Sat night, as colder air from the north
filters in. Cold conditions are expected, as lows plummet into
the mid/upper teens per the NBM blend. Older GFS MOS was showing a
frigid low of 6 above in Huntsville, and 12 degrees in Muscle
Shoals. With more sun peeking through, highs on Sunday should warm
to around 40 degrees. Lows Sun night should cool into the mid and
upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Upper level flow becomes zonal aloft over the Tennessee Valley for
the start of the work week as an upper low makes its way over
Minnesota and Wisconsin. This feature will gradually push east over
New England through Tuesday night, with the potential for a series of
shortwave troughs to traverse over the Southeast through late week.
However, global models are in a fair amount of disagreement with the
evolution of these shortwaves. At the surface, high pressure looks to
largely dominate through the week. Ultimately, no precipitation is
forecast through Thursday; however, it will continue to be VERY cold.
Highs will generally top out the mid 30s to lower 40s through
Thursday, with low temperatures diving into the mid teens to lower
20s through Wednesday night. As these frigid conditions persist, make
sure to protect the four Ps: People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants!
Furthermore, with schools back in session, stay safe and warm by
bundling up before heading outside!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Wintry weather was impacting the TN Valley at TAF issuance, as a
storm system move east across the central Gulf coast. Widespread
precip, mainly snow was impacting the terminals with minimums
ranging from MVFR over NE AL and adjacent TN where precip recently
began, to VLIFR in the higher elevations south of the TN River
(K8A0 and KCMD). An intrusion of warmer air aloft could result in
the snow becoming a wintry mix during the course of the morning
and early afternoon. The precip should end in a west to east
manner in the late afternoon and this evening, as the storm system
moves towards the east coast. IFR conditions with reduced
CIG/VSBY values is expected into the evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB