379
FXUS64 KHUN 011036
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
536 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning in
wake of the weak frontal passage, with much of the cloud cover
shifting well to the south of the area. Despite the frontal
passage, there has been little change in air mass as of yet. Dewpoints
remain in the lower 70s (with air temperatures in the lower 80s)
as of 07z. Still, with high pressure building in from the north, a
drier post frontal air mass will work its way into the area today
as seen by dewpoints falling into the upper 50s (yes, you read
that right!) by mid/late afternoon. This will give us a brief
reprieve from the dangerous heat as peak heat index values will be
in the 85-90 degree range (highs in the upper 80s) under a mostly
sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The comfortable weather will extend to the overnight period as
a mostly clear sky will allow for good radiational cooling as
temperatures fall back into the mid 60s in most locations.
However, this reprieve from the heat will be short-lived as
Gulf moisture begins to filter back into the region, modifying the
air mass. High pressure will continue to promote ample sunshine
and mostly rain-free conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, but
temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90s both days.
These temperatures, combined with much higher RH values, will
push peak heat index values into the 100-104 range on Tuesday and
the 105-109 range on Wednesday. It`s possible a Heat Advisory may
be needed by Wednesday -- with heat impacts continuing through the
remainder of the week. More on this in the section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper ridge will continue to maintain its hold over the
southeastern states to start the long term. However, a shortwave
trough moving over the north-central CONUS and Midwest will cause the
ridge to flatten over the Tennessee Valley on Friday. This impulse
will quickly progress to the northeast into Canada on Saturday; but,
the parent trough will persist over the central portion of the
country through the weekend as the aforementioned ridge is pushed
over the Deep South and off over the Atlantic. The surface pattern
will largely mirror the upper level pattern, as surface high pressure
over the Southeast is shunted south and eastward as a cold front
moves over the Mississippi Valley on Friday. This front looks to
slowly make its way towards the Tennessee Valley by early Saturday,
then stall over the region and weaken by Sunday.

For sensible weather, expect daily chances of showers and storms
increasing through Friday where medium to high chances (50-70%) are
forecast. Medium chances (40-50%) continue on Saturday, then decrease
to low (20-30%) by Sunday as the surface front weakens over the
region. While models show ample instability through the weekend,
shear is fairly meager on Thursday and Friday. Therefore,
anticipating the usual summertime thunderstorms that may produce
brief, heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds. Although,
some guidance indicates that shear values increase to between 20-25
knots or so on Saturday. This would suggest that some stronger storms
may be possible on Saturday. However, we will continue to monitor
these trends over the next few days.

The other concern for the long term period will be the heat,
particularly on Thursday (Independence Day holiday) and Friday. High
temperatures these days are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s.
Dew points are also expected to be in the lower to mid 70s during the
day, with lows Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights in the lower
to mid 70s. This will result a major risk of heat for much of the
local area both Thursday and Friday (according the the NWS HeatRisk
tool). Just strictly looking at heat indices, we`re looking at
generally between 100-109 degrees both days as well. These will be
the days to watch for any potential heat products, but please
remember heat safety this 4th of July holiday! Take frequent breaks
in the shade, wear loose-fitting and light-colored clothing, and stay
hydrated! A very slightly cooler weekend will then follow as highs
top out in the lower 90s with lows Saturday night in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period,
with light NNE/NE winds and a mostly clear sky.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP.24