109
FXUS64 KHUN 012101
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
301 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 902 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Cold rain will overspread the region this afternoon and
   evening, before tapering off late tonight. A few snow flurries
   may develop early Tuesday morning, but these will cause not
   societal impacts.

 - A low chance of freezing fog (20-30%) in some areas late
   Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

 - Medium to high chances (60-80%) of rain return to the forecast
   Thursday evening/night as an another area of low pressure moves
   across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

No major changes to the previous discussion. A 40-50 kt LLJ will
continue to influence the area overnight tonight, bringing
additional forcing for showers. Rainfall amounts remain the same
as previously mentioned (0.5-1" throughout most of the area) with
locally higher amounts up to 1.5 inches in isolated areas. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s, with near or below
freezing temperatures remaining in the southern middle TN region.

Previous discussion: A chilly morning across the Tennessee
Valley, with NNE winds reinforcing a cooler, drier air mass under
a canopy of high cirrus clouds. Winds will gradually veer to the
south in response to a developing low pressure system to the
southwest. The dry conditions will persist until the early
afternoon when some broad isentropic lift generates low to medium
chances for some light rain showers (30-60%), with QPF amounts
generally around one-tenth of an inch or less. The dense,
increasing cloud cover and rain chances will cap any warming that
can take place from the very limited sunshine and southerly flow
as highs will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

A dip in the northern jet stream will attempt to phase with a
southern stream jet along the northern Gulf Coast, creating an
area of low pressure that will push through the Tennessee Valley
late this afternoon and evening into the the overnight hours.
Widespread rain showers should overspread the region between
00-06z in response to a 30-40 kt LLJ moving northeast over the
region -- with PoPs increasing to between 80-100% during this
timeframe. This activity will gradually taper off from west to
east as a surface cold front finally sweeps through the region by
12z, but not before most locations pick up around 1" of rainfall.
With a secondary surface low developing along the Gulf Coast, any
instability will be pinched to our southeast, so do not
anticipate any thunderstorm activity with these showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 902 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Light precipitation will quickly taper off during the early
morning hours on Tuesday morning as drier air quickly sweeps into
the area from the west, eroding low-level moisture. As the profile
cools aloft, however, model soundings do hint at the possibility
of some light snow flurries being see during a brief window
Tuesday morning. These flurries (if they do occur) would cause no
societal impact and will quickly wane by late morning. Drier air
will scour cloud cover away by the afternoon -- making way for a
clear/cold night Tuesday night -- with lows dropping to the lower
20s. One element to watch for late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning would be the potential for patchy freezing fog
given the clear/calm conditions and the still present ground
moisture from earlier rainfall.

Mostly sunny and dry conditions will prevail Wednesday as a brief
bout of ridging builds in midweek. Ample sunshine should be able
to warm temperatures back into the lower 50s in most locations by
the afternoon. This area of high pressure will quickly shift east
of the area on Thursday and another shortwave along the northern
Gulf coast brings another round of precipitation to the Tennessee
Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening as PoPs increase to 60-80%.
Model soundings indicate any instability will be displaced well
to the south, resulting in generally rain showers once again. With
this quick hitting system, most locations will see another 1" of
rain during this Thursday evening/night window.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Extended range guidance from the most recent suite of global
models suggests that a mid-level shortwave trough (initially
across the Four Corners) will weaken considerably as it ejects
northeastward into the OH Valley by 0Z Saturday. Nevertheless, a
similar setup (compared to what we will experience earlier in the
week) will unfold, with a developing southwesterly low-level jet
downstream from this feature resulting in northeastward expansion
of stratiform rain into the region early Friday morning as a weak
wave of low pressure evolves across the north-central Gulf.
Depending on the onset time of precipitation, ice pellets or light
snow may occur initially, but forecast soundings appear
supportive of a rapid transition to rain. Periods of light-
moderate rain will continue for much of the day, before ending in
the east Friday evening, as a new surface low organizes along the
Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Beyond Friday, the progression of individual waves within broad
scale cyclonic flow across North America becomes increasingly
unclear, but latest data indicates a drier pattern becoming
established from Saturday into Sunday, with a slight warming trend
as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through early this evening
before IFR to MVFR conditions push in due to lowered cloud cover
and decreased visibilities. As showers push in overnight, LIFR to
IFR conditions will be likely with ceilings dropping to around
400-600 ft. MVFR conditions are forecast to return as rain clears
out around 10-12Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC/TG
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC