892
FXUS64 KHUN 011726
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A mid-level trough will progress southeastward and away from the
region this morning, with NNW flow aloft expected to increase into
the 15-25 knot range this afternoon, as our region will be
located along the eastern edge of a flat subtropical ridge
extending across much of the southwestern/south-central CONUS. In
the low-levels, a weak area of low pressure across southeastern OH
continues to generate light NNW winds across our region this
morning, but the low is predicted to become absorbed within a
stronger cold front (extending south-southwestward from a deeper
cyclone over northern Hudson Bay) later today. Although forecast
soundings suggest drying aloft in the wake of the mid-level
trough, sufficient boundary layer moisture will exist for the
development of a few light showers from late this morning through
the afternoon hours as the cold front enters our region, and we
have maintained a low POP to cover this. With ensemble guidance
suggesting that CAPE will remain below 250 J/kg, we do not
anticipate any lightning at the present time. Presuming that skies
partially clear this afternoon (and some locations see their
first glimpse of the sun for the past five days), highs should be
a few degrees warmer than yesterday (u70s-l80s).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Any showers that form should dissipate this evening with a loss of
instability from daytime heating. A cold front now located from
Lake Superior, to eastern Iowa and the Texas Panhandle now heading
to the east should move across the Tennessee Valley tonight. With
limited dynamics and a more stable atmosphere, no showers are
anticipated. Cool conditions are forecast with lows falling into
the upper 50s to lower 60s and light NW winds. With the front
moving through and a light wind, fog should not be as much of an
issue tonight.

Dry weather should return for the mid and latter week. With more
sun than clouds, daily high/low temperatures should trend at or
above seasonable norms. Highs on Wednesday should rise into upper
70s and lower 80s, and Thursday in the low/mid 80s. Lows Wed night
should range in the mid 50s to around 60, and in the low/mid 60s
Thu night. Normal high/low temperatures by Thu are around 81/57.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

As we start the long term forecast period, a quick moving
shortwave ejecting northeast out of the Gulf will pass just to
our south. While some deterministic model runs hint at some Gulf
moisture reaching to the northern parts of Alabama, the NBM
probabilities suggest a very low chance (5%) of precip. Hence,
kept a dry forecast on Friday. Afternoon highs on Friday rise into
the low to mid 80s. By this weekend, the upper level flow becomes
more zonal across the Southeast. Dry and seasonal weather is
forecast with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low 60s.

On Monday, an upper level trough moving from the upper Midwest to the
Northeast will help push some cooler air southward. Expect highs on
Monday to only be in the upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid
50s. The other benefit of this cooler northerly flow is that it
should help keep any tropical activity that may form in the Gulf to
our south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Current IR satellite data suggests that the overcast layer of As
continues to erode from NW-to-SE, and this trend is expected to
persist throughout the aftn. Although a few lgt SHRA may impact
the region this aftn/evening (prior to the arrival of a weakening
cold front), anticipated coverage is too low to include in the
TAFs attm. Forecast soundings indicate that a more pronounced
clearing trend will take place late this evening (at least for the
western half of the forecast area), and this should support
development of BR/FG early Wednesday morning. If light northerly
winds manage to diminish a bit more than expected, IFR conds in
locally dense fog would be possible btwn 8-12Z, but at this point
we have only indicated MVFR reductions in a TEMPO group.
Conditions will improve by 14Z, with sfc flow veering to NNE by
the end of the period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...GH
AVIATION...70/DD