


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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397 FXUS64 KHUN 061701 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Current satellite and radar shows a broad area of clouds and light showers covering a majority of the SE CONUS. This is supported by ESE flow along surface high pressure off the mid Atlantic coast. The induced ESE flow is acting as a favorable conveyor of ocean moisture into the TN Valley. Dew points have increased to the mid to high 60s area wide and BMX 12Z sounding shows PWATS just below 2". Despite all the moisture, we are lacking any forcing to produce heavier rainfall or storms. Thus we will have another benign, if dreary, start to the week. Low clouds and light showers will linger through a majority of the day, limiting temps to the high 70s to low 80s. Conditions won`t change much as we head into the overnight hour. Cloudy skies and high dew points will prevent us from cooling off too much with muggy lows in the high 60s present at day break tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Unfortunately Tuesday will be another dreary day however an approaching cold front will provide enough support for heavier rain and perhaps a few storms. The approaching front, currently draped across the Plains, looks to move through the TN Valley overnight from Tuesday into Wednesday. Along and ahead of this front, rain chances will increase through the day. The ample moisture present from previous days of ESE flow will support periods of moderate to heavy rainfall however HIRES model guidance maintains our overall QPF near or just above an inch, highest in NW AL. Thus, we are not anticipating any major flooding concerns. As the front approaches instability will also increase from the SW. A few hundred J/KG of CAPE looks likely tomorrow afternoon. With the better shear retaining close proximity to the front, this will create a narrow window tomorrow evening where favorable shear and CAPE may overlap to produce some stronger storms with heavy rainfall from convective rain rates and gusty winds being the main concern. Instability will decrease within a few hours of sunset decreasing the concern for any stronger storms overnight. HIRES models show a majority of the precip ending with the progression of the front to our SE by Wednesday morning. Despite this, cloud cover will likely remain for most of the day. The combo of cloudy conditions and northerly winds brining in cooler air will moderate temperatures on Wednesday with highs near 80. We will remain in close enough proximity to retain partly to mostly cloudy skies on Thursday, especially in NE AL. Fortunately only low (~10%) rain chances will be present on Thursday, however this could increase especially in NE AL if the front slows down. Clouds will again help to moderate temperates with highs near normal in mid to high 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 920 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Consensus guidance from the latest suite of global models suggests that an initially weak mid-level shortwave disturbance in WNW flow aloft will gradually develop into a stronger trough across the southeastern CONUS over the course of the long term period. Although we will likely remain on the dry side of the trough, low-level moisture and convergence will both be sufficient for a continuation of clouds and a few light showers on Thursday and perhaps Friday, as well. However, increasing deep- layer northerly flow (to the west of the mid-level trough and a developing area of surface low pressure off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will eventually advect a drier airmass into the region Saturday/Sunday, with only a few showers possible in the higher terrain to our northeast. Through the period, highs will be in the m-u 70s, with lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 MVFR ceilings will be in place at both terminals at the start of the period. Ceilings look to lift to VFR late in the afternoon and remain so through the night. Gusty ESE winds will also be present through the TAF with highest gusts near 20 KTs at the start of the period, decreasing slightly to around 15 KTs later this evening. A passing cold front tomorrow will create complicated TAFS after 12Z with low ceilings and rain for a majority of the day. Current forecast has IFR to MVFR ceilings arriving around sunrise with light showers possible. Heaviest rain and lowest ceilings look to be beyond this TAF period and will be addressed in future TAF issuance. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...RAD